The Iowa SD-35 poll weighted to 2024 presidential vote recall within each region puts Joe Stutting ahead 47% to 45%. Rob Sand and Zach Lahn are tied at 45% in the district.
Joe Stutting leads Mike Zimmer 47% to 45% after the leaner follow-up, with 8% undecided. Before that follow-up, Zimmer had 45% and Stutting 44%, with 11% undecided. This version weights recalled 2024 presidential vote within each region of the district.
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Mike Zimmer (D)
45%
45%
Joe Stutting (R)
44%
47%
Don’t Know
11%
8%
The Governor’s race is tied
Rob Sand and Zach Lahn each receive 45% among likely voters in SD-35 after the leaner follow-up, with 9% undecided. The initial ballot was 44% Sand and 42% Lahn, with 14% undecided. Rounded leaner shares total 99%.
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Rob Sand (D)
44%
45%
Zach Lahn (R)
42%
45%
Don’t Know
14%
9%
Trump faces more disapproval than approval
Forty-seven percent approve of President Trump’s job performance and 52% disapprove. Twenty-nine percent strongly approve, while 46% strongly disapprove.
Response
Value
Strongly approve
29%
Somewhat approve
18%
Somewhat disapprove
6%
Strongly disapprove
46%
Don’t Know
1%
Reynolds’ approval is closely divided
Gov. Kim Reynolds receives 47% approval and 48% disapproval. Thirty-one percent strongly approve, while 36% strongly disapprove. Five percent have no opinion.
Response
Value
Strongly approve
31%
Somewhat approve
16%
Somewhat disapprove
12%
Strongly disapprove
36%
Don’t Know
5%
The economy leads voters’ issue concerns
Economy and cost of living is the most frequently mentioned theme, named by 33% of respondents who answered. Candidate qualities and good governance follows at 18%. Respondents could name more than one theme, so these shares can add to more than 100%.
Response
Value
Economy & Cost of Living
33%
Candidate Qualities & Good Governance
18%
Oppose Republicans/Support Democrats
10%
Oppose Democrats/Support Republicans
10%
Healthcare
10%
Taxes
8%
Rights & Social Issues
7%
Immigration
7%
Education
4%
Data Centers, Tech & AI
3%
War & Foreign Policy
3%
Infrastructure, Utilities & Roads
1%
Jobs & Labor
1%
Other
5%
No specific issue / unsure
6%
Live response map
Each dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its reported precinct. Dot positions are not respondents’ locations.
The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.
Chaz Nuttycombe on crossover voting
Zimmer is winning Trump voters at the same rate as Sand.
Once our results are weighted to recalled 2024 presidential vote in each part of the district, Joe Stutting leads Mike Zimmer by less than 2 points with leaners (47% to 45%), while Zach Lahn and Rob Sand are tied in the Governor's race at 45% each. Zimmer is keeping pace with the top of the ticket thanks to crossover support: among voters who say they voted for Donald Trump in 2024, Zimmer wins 9%, the same share Sand gets, while Stutting wins just 2% of voters who say they voted for Kamala Harris. Ticket-splitting between the Governor and State Senate races is rare in both directions: about 1.5% of likely voters back both Sand and Stutting, and fewer than 1% back both Lahn and Zimmer. Most of the remaining gap between Zimmer and Sand comes from Sand voters who are still undecided in the State Senate race, about 2% of likely voters; if they come home, Zimmer should run right alongside Sand's margin.
State Navigate Iowa SD-35 presidential recall weighted poll, PDF page 9. The author describes a lead of less than 2 points; the rounded 47% and 45% chart shares differ by 2 points. Both source presentations are retained.
Chaz Nuttycombe on weighting by region
Our sample's problem is geographic, so we weighted for it geographically.
Donald Trump carried SD-35 by 21 points in 2024, but in our standard version of this poll, which isn't weighted to recalled vote, likely voters recall a Trump win of just 7 points. That gap isn't spread evenly across the district. In that version, respondents in Clinton and Camanche recall backing Trump by 8 points, matching his actual 8-point margin in those precincts. But in the district's rural precincts, which Trump won by 37 points, our respondents recall backing him by just 10, and in DeWitt, which Trump won by 18, our respondents recall voting for Kamala Harris by 8. Maquoketa runs about 7 points too Democratic as well. Weighting to recalled vote across the whole district would add Trump voters everywhere, including in Clinton and Camanche, where our sample was already right. So in this version, we weighted recalled 2024 vote within each region to that region's actual result, shifted about 5 points toward Democrats in each to account for a more Democratic-leaning environment in 2026. After weighting, likely voters in this version recall backing Trump by 14 points, 55% to 41%. The result is Stutting 47%, Zimmer 45%, compared to a 46% to 43% Zimmer lead in our standard version, which we are releasing alongside this one. The shift comes from rural voters, where Stutting now leads by 15 points instead of trailing narrowly, partly offset by Clinton and Camanche, where Zimmer now leads by 8 points after the bluer 2026 adjustment. Within each region, these weights rest on small groups of respondents, so the regional figures should be read with caution.
State Navigate Iowa SD-35 presidential recall weighted poll, PDF page 9.
Explore all results
Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.
2024 President
Response
Value
Trump (R)
60%
Harris (D)
39%
2024 U.S. House
Response
Value
Miller-Meeks (R)
55%
Bohannan (D)
45%
2025 SD-35 special election
Response
Value
Zimmer (D)
52%
Whittington (R)
48%
2022 State Senate
Response
Value
Cournoyer (R)
61%
Ganzer (D)
39%
Party registration
Response
Value
Democratic
34.2%
Republican
41.9%
No Party / Other
23.9%
Party identification with leaners
Response
Value
Democrat
39%
Republican
54%
Neither
7%
Ideological self-identification
Response
Value
Progressives / Liberals
20%
Moderates / Center
32%
Conservatives
40%
Skipped / Don’t Know
9%
Age
Response
Value
18-29
6%
30-44
15%
45-64
35%
65 or older
45%
Education
Response
Value
Less than Bachelor’s
66%
Bachelor’s or higher
34%
Participation in the last four general elections
Response
Value
4 of 4
69%
3 of 4
14%
2 of 4
6%
1 of 4
7%
0 of 4
4%
SD-35 with leaners
If the election for Iowa State Senate District 35 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up)
Response
Value
Mike Zimmer (D)
45%
Joe Stutting (R)
47%
Don’t Know
8%
SD-35 before undecided push
If the election for Iowa State Senate District 35 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (initial ballot, before leaner follow-up)
Response
Value
Mike Zimmer (D)
45%
Joe Stutting (R)
44%
Don’t Know
11%
Governor with leaners
If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up)
Response
Value
Rob Sand (D)
45%
Zach Lahn (R)
45%
Don’t Know
9%
Governor before undecided push
If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (initial ballot, before leaner follow-up)
Response
Value
Rob Sand (D)
44%
Zach Lahn (R)
42%
Don’t Know
14%
President Trump job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Approve
47%
Disapprove
52%
Don’t Know
1%
President Trump job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Strongly approve
29%
Somewhat approve
18%
Somewhat disapprove
6%
Strongly disapprove
46%
Don’t Know
1%
Gov. Reynolds job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kim Reynolds is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Approve
47%
Disapprove
48%
Don’t Know
5%
Gov. Reynolds job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kim Reynolds is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Strongly approve
31%
Somewhat approve
16%
Somewhat disapprove
12%
Strongly disapprove
36%
Don’t Know
5%
Words used to describe the top issue
If you choose to vote in November, what is the number one issue that will impact who you vote for?
Words in the source illustration
Economy
Trump
Taxes
Immigration
Education
Cost of Living
Healthcare
Prices
Republican
Rights
Democrats
Inflation
Data Centers
Democracy
Government
Party
Control
Socialism
Property
High
Costs
Cancer
War
Corruption
Honest
Affordable
Jobs
Border
Water
Insurance
Issues impacting vote choice
If you choose to vote in November, what is the number one issue that will impact who you vote for?
Response
Value
Economy & Cost of Living
33%
Candidate Qualities & Good Governance
18%
Oppose Republicans/Support Democrats
10%
Oppose Democrats/Support Republicans
10%
Healthcare
10%
Taxes
8%
Rights & Social Issues
7%
Immigration
7%
Education
4%
Data Centers, Tech & AI
3%
War & Foreign Policy
3%
Infrastructure, Utilities & Roads
1%
Jobs & Labor
1%
Other
5%
No specific issue / unsure
6%
Average ideology by voter group
Response
Value
Zimmer voters
6.5 on a 0-10 scale
Sand voters
6.4 on a 0-10 scale
All voters
4.4 on a 0-10 scale
Undecided for SD-35
4.2 on a 0-10 scale
Stutting voters
2.4 on a 0-10 scale
Lahn voters
2.4 on a 0-10 scale
Detailed ideological self-placement
Response
Value
10. Democratic Socialist
3%
9. Extremely Progressive/Liberal
2%
8. Very Progressive/Liberal
6%
7. Progressive/Liberal
9%
6. Center-left
11%
5. Moderate / Centrist
13%
4. Center-right
7%
3. Conservative
17%
2. Very Conservative
11%
1. Extremely Conservative
8%
0. Far Right
3%
Skipped / Don’t Know
9%
Region weights
Response
Value
DeWitt
12.2%
Maquoketa
8.0%
Clinton & Camanche
40.6%
Rural
39.2%
SD-35 by region
Response
Value
DeWitt
12.2%
Maquoketa
8.0%
Clinton & Camanche
40.6%
Rural
39.2%
How the survey was conducted
State Navigate surveyed 407 likely voters in Iowa's 35th State Senate District from September 29-October 1, 2026. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and 2024 presidential vote recall within each region of the district to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 4.9% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.
