Amy Klobuchar leads Lisa Demuth 52% to 42% with leaners. Keith Ellison leads the Attorney General race 52% to 44%, while 60% disapprove of President Trump’s job performance.
Field dates
October 26–28, 2026
Sample
806 likely voters
Margin of error
±3.5 points
Election
November 3, 2026
Klobuchar holds a 10-point lead
Amy Klobuchar leads Lisa Demuth 52% to 42% with leaners, with Steven Young at 3%. Another 3% do not know their choice. The reported margin of error is ±3.5 points.
Response
Value
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)
52%
Lisa Demuth (R)
42%
Steven Young (Green)
3%
Don’t know
3%
Don’t remember
0%
The people behind the poll
Each dot represents one of the 919 unweighted responses, colored by Governor choice. Dots are placed illustratively within the reported county, not at respondents’ locations. The weighted headline results use the likely-voter sample.
County
Responses
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)
Lisa Demuth (R)
Steven Young (Green)
Don’t know
Don’t remember
Aitkin
4
2
2
0
0
0
Anoka
62
31
28
1
2
0
Becker
9
6
3
0
0
0
Beltrami
8
5
3
0
0
0
Benton
3
2
1
0
0
0
Big Stone
1
0
1
0
0
0
Blue Earth
7
2
5
0
0
0
Brown
4
1
3
0
0
0
Carlton
3
1
2
0
0
0
Carver
19
9
10
0
0
0
Cass
8
5
3
0
0
0
Chippewa
3
2
1
0
0
0
Chisago
13
3
9
0
1
0
Clay
8
3
3
1
1
0
Clearwater
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cook
2
1
1
0
0
0
Cottonwood
3
2
1
0
0
0
Crow Wing
13
3
9
1
0
0
Dakota
83
54
26
2
0
1
Dodge
4
1
3
0
0
0
Douglas
3
1
2
0
0
0
Faribault
4
1
3
0
0
0
Fillmore
3
1
2
0
0
0
Freeborn
4
0
2
2
0
0
Goodhue
7
3
4
0
0
0
Grant
1
1
0
0
0
0
Hennepin
226
149
62
7
7
1
Houston
3
2
1
0
0
0
Hubbard
4
3
1
0
0
0
Isanti
10
0
10
0
0
0
Itasca
8
3
4
0
1
0
Jackson
2
0
2
0
0
0
Kanabec
6
2
4
0
0
0
Kandiyohi
5
2
3
0
0
0
Kittson
1
0
1
0
0
0
Koochiching
1
0
1
0
0
0
Lac qui Parle
0
0
0
0
0
0
Lake
2
1
1
0
0
0
Lake of the Woods
0
0
0
0
0
0
Le Sueur
3
2
1
0
0
0
Lincoln
1
0
1
0
0
0
Lyon
4
1
3
0
0
0
Mahnomen
0
0
0
0
0
0
Marshall
1
0
1
0
0
0
Martin
2
0
2
0
0
0
McLeod
3
1
1
0
1
0
Meeker
4
1
3
0
0
0
Mille Lacs
5
3
2
0
0
0
Morrison
5
1
4
0
0
0
Mower
2
0
1
1
0
0
Murray
0
0
0
0
0
0
Nicollet
5
3
2
0
0
0
Nobles
2
2
0
0
0
0
Norman
0
0
0
0
0
0
Olmsted
11
8
3
0
0
0
Otter Tail
12
7
5
0
0
0
Pennington
2
1
1
0
0
0
Pine
5
3
2
0
0
0
Pipestone
0
0
0
0
0
0
Polk
8
2
6
0
0
0
Pope
1
1
0
0
0
0
Ramsey
92
60
25
2
5
0
Red Lake
1
1
0
0
0
0
Redwood
1
0
1
0
0
0
Renville
2
0
1
1
0
0
Rice
10
4
6
0
0
0
Rock
1
1
0
0
0
0
Roseau
5
1
3
1
0
0
Scott
24
12
10
1
1
0
Sherburne
15
6
9
0
0
0
Sibley
1
1
0
0
0
0
St. Louis
29
16
10
0
3
0
Stearns
27
16
9
0
2
0
Steele
7
1
6
0
0
0
Stevens
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swift
0
0
0
0
0
0
Todd
2
2
0
0
0
0
Traverse
1
0
1
0
0
0
Wabasha
3
1
2
0
0
0
Wadena
1
0
1
0
0
0
Waseca
1
0
1
0
0
0
Washington
50
20
29
0
0
1
Watonwan
1
0
1
0
0
0
Wilkin
0
0
0
0
0
0
Winona
6
3
2
0
1
0
Wright
15
7
8
0
0
0
Yellow Medicine
1
0
1
0
0
0
Ellison leads by eight points
Keith Ellison leads Ronald J. Schutz 52% to 44% with leaners. Three percent do not know their choice, and 1% have voted but do not remember or would not say.
Response
Value
Keith Ellison (DFL)
52%
Ronald J. Schutz (R)
44%
Don’t know
3%
Don’t remember
1%
The metro drives Klobuchar’s advantage
Klobuchar leads by 40 points in Hennepin and Ramsey counties and by six points in the Collar Suburbs. Demuth leads Greater Minnesota by 11 points. These are weighted regional estimates, with subgroup uncertainty larger than the statewide margin of error.
Response
Value
Hennepin-Ramsey
40 points toward Democrats
Collar Suburbs
6 points toward Democrats
Greater Minnesota
11 points toward Republicans
Six in ten disapprove of Trump
Trump’s overall approval is 38%, compared with 60% disapproval. In the detailed responses, 56% strongly disapprove and 23% strongly approve.
Response
Value
Strongly approve
23%
Somewhat approve
15%
Somewhat disapprove
4%
Strongly disapprove
56%
Don’t know
2%
Team notes and analysis
Chaz Nuttycombe on Klobuchar and the baseline
Klobuchar isn't running ahead of the Democratic baseline this time.
Amy Klobuchar has made a career of running well ahead of Minnesota's partisanship. In 2012 she won her Senate race by 35 points while Barack Obama carried the state by 8. In 2018 she won by 24, in a state Hillary Clinton had carried by less than 2 points two years earlier. And in 2024 she won by 16 while Kamala Harris won Minnesota by 4.
In our poll, that overperformance is gone. Our poll's presidential recall margin among likely voters is Harris +10, and Klobuchar leads Lisa Demuth by 10, essentially even with that recall margin. That's a likely sign that she is being dragged down by Minnesota's fraud scandal, and that voters have little appetite for sending a senator to the governor's mansion. We saw the same thing in Colorado this year, where Attorney General Phil Weiser beat Senator Michael Bennet by about 9 points in the Democratic primary for governor.
Minnesota statewide briefing, October 2026, PDF page 8.
Chaz Nuttycombe on ticket splitting
Ellison runs behind the top of the ticket, but probably not far enough to lose.
Keith Ellison leads Ronald Schutz by 8 points, about 2 points behind Klobuchar. The gap comes from ticket splitters: 4% of Klobuchar voters back Schutz, while only 1% of Demuth voters back Ellison. Much of it is in Greater Minnesota, where Ellison trails by 15 against Klobuchar's 11.
Public polling shows a similar pattern. In the five public polls since the August primary that asked both the Attorney General and U.S. Senate races, Ellison has averaged D+2.2, about a point behind Peggy Flanagan's D+3.2 in the Senate race. Running a point or so behind the ticket in a state Democrats carry is still a likely win. Democrats are quite likely to extend their winning streak in Minnesota statewide races, which now runs 20 years: no Republican has been elected statewide since 2006.
Minnesota statewide briefing, October 2026, PDF page 8.
Chaz Nuttycombe on new and irregular voters
New and irregular voters are Klobuchar's base.
Likely voters who did not vote in 2024 make up 9% of our sample, and they back Klobuchar 58-26. The voter file tells the same story: those who voted in none of the last four general elections (9% of likely voters) favor her 63-26, compared with 55-42 among voters who cast a ballot in all four. The exception is the small group who voted third party in 2024 (4%), who lean toward Demuth 61-18, with 16% for Green nominee Steven Young.
Klobuchar's lead depends in part on these less reliable voters turning out. Each of these groups has fewer than 100 respondents, so read the numbers as directional.
Minnesota statewide briefing, October 2026, PDF page 8.
Chaz Nuttycombe on the metro and Greater Minnesota
The metro carries Klobuchar while Greater Minnesota holds to its 2024 lines.
The Twin Cities metro makes up 58% of our weighted likely voters, and Klobuchar leads there by 25 points. That includes D+40 in Hennepin and Ramsey counties and D+6 in the Collar Suburbs. Demuth carries Greater Minnesota by 11.
Neither area is far from its presidential recall margin: Trump +12 among our Greater Minnesota likely voters and Harris +27 among our metro likely voters. Trump's approval stands at 50% outside the metro, against 29% inside it. Demuth's path is to run up her margin in Greater Minnesota beyond Trump's. In our poll she is only matching it.
Minnesota statewide briefing, October 2026, PDF page 9.
Explore all results
Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.
2024 President: Harris +4.2
Historical election results as printed in the briefing; these are not survey responses. Printed margins and rounded shares are preserved independently. PDF page 2
Response
Value
Harris (D)
50.9%
Trump (R)
46.7%
2024 U.S. Senate: Klobuchar +15.7
Historical election results as printed in the briefing; these are not survey responses. Printed margins and rounded shares are preserved independently. PDF page 2
Response
Value
Klobuchar (DFL)
56.2%
White (R)
40.5%
2022 Governor: Walz +7.7
Historical election results as printed in the briefing; these are not survey responses. Printed margins and rounded shares are preserved independently. PDF page 2
Response
Value
Walz (DFL)
52.3%
Jensen (R)
44.6%
2020 President: Biden +7.1
Historical election results as printed in the briefing; these are not survey responses. Printed margins and rounded shares are preserved independently. PDF page 2
Response
Value
Biden (D)
52.4%
Trump (R)
45.3%
Party identification with leaners
Weighted likely voters. Percentages and source rounding are preserved. PDF page 3
Response
Value
Democrat
50.4%
Republican
39.6%
Neither
10.1%
Vote history: last four general elections
Weighted likely voters. Percentages and source rounding are preserved. PDF page 3
Response
Value
4 of 4
59.5%
3 of 4
14.9%
2 of 4
9.2%
1 of 4
6.9%
0 of 4
9.4%
Race
Weighted likely voters. Percentages and source rounding are preserved. PDF page 3
Response
Value
White
86.2%
Black
5.1%
Latino
3.0%
Asian American
1.4%
Other / multiracial
4.3%
Age
Weighted likely voters. Percentages and source rounding are preserved. PDF page 3
Response
Value
18–29
13.3%
30–44
21.2%
45–64
34.9%
65+
30.7%
Education
Weighted likely voters. Percentages and source rounding are preserved. PDF page 3
Response
Value
HS or less
22.6%
Some college
33.2%
Bachelor’s
29.6%
Postgraduate
14.6%
2024 presidential vote, recalled
Weighted likely voters. Percentages and source rounding are preserved. PDF page 3
Response
Value
Harris (D)
47.9%
Trump (R)
37.6%
Third party
4.1%
Did not vote / no answer
9.9%
Ideological self-identification
Weighted likely voters. Percentages and source rounding are preserved. PDF page 3
Response
Value
Progressives / Liberals
30.6%
Moderates / Center
33.0%
Conservatives
29.5%
Skipped / Don’t know
6.9%
Already voted?
Weighted likely voters. Percentages and source rounding are preserved. PDF page 3
Response
Value
Already voted
15.0%
Not yet voted
85.0%
Governor with leaners
If the election for Minnesota Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (includes voters who already cast a ballot)
Weighted likely voters. “Don’t remember” includes voters who already cast a ballot but do not remember or would not say their choice. Source rounding is preserved. PDF page 4
Response
Value
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)
52%
Lisa Demuth (R)
42%
Steven Young (Green)
3%
Don’t know
3%
Don’t remember
0%
Governor before undecided push
If the election for Minnesota Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (initial ballot, before leaner follow-up)
Weighted likely voters. “Don’t remember” includes voters who already cast a ballot but do not remember or would not say their choice. Source rounding is preserved. PDF page 4
Response
Value
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)
51%
Lisa Demuth (R)
42%
Steven Young (Green)
2%
Don’t know
5%
Don’t remember
0%
Trump job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Weighted likely voters. Percentages and source rounding are preserved. PDF page 4
Response
Value
Approve
38%
Disapprove
60%
Don’t know
2%
Trump job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Weighted likely voters. Percentages and source rounding are preserved. PDF page 4
Response
Value
Strongly approve
23%
Somewhat approve
15%
Somewhat disapprove
4%
Strongly disapprove
56%
Don’t know
2%
Governor vote by voting status
Weighted Governor preferences within each voting-status group. Only Klobuchar and Demuth percentages are numerically labeled in the source; minor-candidate and nonresponse shares remain not reported here. Group n values are unweighted respondent counts. PDF page 5
Response
Klobuchar (DFL)
Demuth (R)
Young (Green)
Don’t know
Don’t remember
Already voted (n=246)
73%
24%
—
—
—
Not yet voted (n=673)
48%
45%
—
—
—
Attorney General with leaners
If the election for Minnesota Attorney General were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
Weighted likely voters. “Don’t remember” includes voters who already cast a ballot but do not remember or would not say their choice. Source rounding is preserved. PDF page 5
Response
Value
Keith Ellison (DFL)
52%
Ronald J. Schutz (R)
44%
Don’t know
3%
Don’t remember
1%
Attorney General before undecided push
If the election for Minnesota Attorney General were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (initial ballot)
Weighted likely voters. “Don’t remember” includes voters who already cast a ballot but do not remember or would not say their choice. Source rounding is preserved. PDF page 5
Response
Value
Keith Ellison (DFL)
50%
Ronald J. Schutz (R)
43%
Don’t know
6%
Don’t remember
1%
Governor margin by region
Weighted likely voters in each area. Hennepin-Ramsey n=318; Collar Suburbs n=238; Greater Minnesota n=363. The survey is weighted on six regions; Greater Minnesota combines four of them. Margins are printed rounded values, shown as their size and direction. PDF page 6
Response
Value
Hennepin-Ramsey
40 points toward Democrats
Collar Suburbs
6 points toward Democrats
Greater Minnesota
11 points toward Republicans
Regional swing from the 2024 presidential result
Weighted likely voters in each area. Hennepin-Ramsey n=318; Collar Suburbs n=238; Greater Minnesota n=363. The survey is weighted on six regions; Greater Minnesota combines four of them. Margins are printed rounded values, shown as their size and direction. Swing is the Governor margin minus the actual 2024 presidential margin in the same area, not a change since an earlier poll. PDF page 6
Response
Value
Hennepin-Ramsey
3 points toward Republicans
Collar Suburbs
3 points toward Democrats
Greater Minnesota
10 points toward Democrats
Share of weighted sample by region
Share of the weighted sample. Unweighted respondent counts: Hennepin-Ramsey 318; Collar Suburbs 238; Greater Minnesota 363. PDF page 6
Response
Value
Hennepin-Ramsey
32.8%
Collar Suburbs
25.0%
Greater Minnesota
42.2%
Average ideology by voter group
Weighted means among respondents who placed themselves on a 0–10 scale, where 0 is far right and 10 is most progressive. 6.9% skipped the question. Undecided Governor voters have not voted yet. PDF page 7
Response
Value
Ellison voters (DFL)
7.2
Klobuchar voters (DFL)
7.1
All voters
5.2
Undecided Governor voters
4.9
Schutz voters (R)
3.0
Demuth voters (R)
2.9
Detailed ideological self-placement
Weighted self-placement shares, including skipped responses. 10 is most progressive and 0 is far right. Source rounding is preserved. PDF page 7
Response
Value
10. Democratic Socialist
9.5%
9. Extremely Progressive/Liberal
3.4%
8. Very Progressive/Liberal
6.4%
7. Progressive/Liberal
11.3%
6. Center-left
12.9%
5. Moderate / Centrist
12.4%
4. Center-right
7.7%
3. Conservative
13.8%
2. Very Conservative
7.1%
1. Extremely Conservative
5.0%
0. Far Right
3.5%
Skipped / Don’t know
6.9%
Governor responses by county
All 919 unweighted responses from the supplied livemap workbook, across 77 counties. All 87 county boundaries are shown. One dot represents one response, colored by Governor choice. Positions are synthetic within the reported county, not respondent locations. These counts are not weighted poll estimates. Counties with no dots have no responses in this workbook
County
Responses
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)
Lisa Demuth (R)
Steven Young (Green)
Don’t know
Don’t remember
Aitkin
4
2
2
0
0
0
Anoka
62
31
28
1
2
0
Becker
9
6
3
0
0
0
Beltrami
8
5
3
0
0
0
Benton
3
2
1
0
0
0
Big Stone
1
0
1
0
0
0
Blue Earth
7
2
5
0
0
0
Brown
4
1
3
0
0
0
Carlton
3
1
2
0
0
0
Carver
19
9
10
0
0
0
Cass
8
5
3
0
0
0
Chippewa
3
2
1
0
0
0
Chisago
13
3
9
0
1
0
Clay
8
3
3
1
1
0
Clearwater
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cook
2
1
1
0
0
0
Cottonwood
3
2
1
0
0
0
Crow Wing
13
3
9
1
0
0
Dakota
83
54
26
2
0
1
Dodge
4
1
3
0
0
0
Douglas
3
1
2
0
0
0
Faribault
4
1
3
0
0
0
Fillmore
3
1
2
0
0
0
Freeborn
4
0
2
2
0
0
Goodhue
7
3
4
0
0
0
Grant
1
1
0
0
0
0
Hennepin
226
149
62
7
7
1
Houston
3
2
1
0
0
0
Hubbard
4
3
1
0
0
0
Isanti
10
0
10
0
0
0
Itasca
8
3
4
0
1
0
Jackson
2
0
2
0
0
0
Kanabec
6
2
4
0
0
0
Kandiyohi
5
2
3
0
0
0
Kittson
1
0
1
0
0
0
Koochiching
1
0
1
0
0
0
Lac qui Parle
0
0
0
0
0
0
Lake
2
1
1
0
0
0
Lake of the Woods
0
0
0
0
0
0
Le Sueur
3
2
1
0
0
0
Lincoln
1
0
1
0
0
0
Lyon
4
1
3
0
0
0
Mahnomen
0
0
0
0
0
0
Marshall
1
0
1
0
0
0
Martin
2
0
2
0
0
0
McLeod
3
1
1
0
1
0
Meeker
4
1
3
0
0
0
Mille Lacs
5
3
2
0
0
0
Morrison
5
1
4
0
0
0
Mower
2
0
1
1
0
0
Murray
0
0
0
0
0
0
Nicollet
5
3
2
0
0
0
Nobles
2
2
0
0
0
0
Norman
0
0
0
0
0
0
Olmsted
11
8
3
0
0
0
Otter Tail
12
7
5
0
0
0
Pennington
2
1
1
0
0
0
Pine
5
3
2
0
0
0
Pipestone
0
0
0
0
0
0
Polk
8
2
6
0
0
0
Pope
1
1
0
0
0
0
Ramsey
92
60
25
2
5
0
Red Lake
1
1
0
0
0
0
Redwood
1
0
1
0
0
0
Renville
2
0
1
1
0
0
Rice
10
4
6
0
0
0
Rock
1
1
0
0
0
0
Roseau
5
1
3
1
0
0
Scott
24
12
10
1
1
0
Sherburne
15
6
9
0
0
0
Sibley
1
1
0
0
0
0
St. Louis
29
16
10
0
3
0
Stearns
27
16
9
0
2
0
Steele
7
1
6
0
0
0
Stevens
0
0
0
0
0
0
Swift
0
0
0
0
0
0
Todd
2
2
0
0
0
0
Traverse
1
0
1
0
0
0
Wabasha
3
1
2
0
0
0
Wadena
1
0
1
0
0
0
Waseca
1
0
1
0
0
0
Washington
50
20
29
0
0
1
Watonwan
1
0
1
0
0
0
Wilkin
0
0
0
0
0
0
Winona
6
3
2
0
1
0
Wright
15
7
8
0
0
0
Yellow Medicine
1
0
1
0
0
0
How the survey was conducted
State Navigate surveyed 806 likely voters across Minnesota from October 26-28, 2026 (919 respondents; fielding closed October 28). Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2, and results were weighted by gender, race, education, age, leaned party identification, region, and whether the respondent had already voted (15% of likely voters) to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate, with weighting benchmarks derived from L2 voter file data in conjunction with AP VoteCast. The margin of error is 3.5% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee. On the ballot charts, the dashed box around each candidate's bar spans the margin of error.
