Sabih narrowly leads Mackenzie in Pennsylvania HD-131
State Navigate’s October 10-14 survey finds Meriam Sabih (D) at 51% and Milou Mackenzie (R) at 46% after leaner follow-up, with 3% undecided. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot among these same district voters.
Election date
November 3, 2026
Field dates
October 10-14, 2026
Sample
464 likely voters
Margin of error
+/- 4.5 points
Sabih leads 51% to 46%
Meriam Sabih (D) leads Milou Mackenzie (R) after leaner follow-up, with 3% undecided. The initial ballot is shown alongside the follow-up.
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Meriam Sabih (D)
50%
51%
Milou Mackenzie (R)
46%
46%
Don’t know
4%
3%
Shapiro leads the governor ballot, 56% to 41%
Josh Shapiro (D) leads Stacy Garrity (R) among these district voters after leaner follow-up, with 3% undecided. The chart compares the initial ballot with the leaner follow-up.
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)
56%
56%
Stacy Garrity (R)
39%
41%
Don’t know
5%
3%
58% disapprove of Trump’s performance
Donald Trump receives 42% approval and 58% disapproval. The detailed responses distinguish strong and softer opinions; the separately rounded topline is available in Explore all results.
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Strongly approve
27%
+2 points
Somewhat approve
15%
+1 point
Somewhat disapprove
4%
-1 point
Strongly disapprove
54%
-1 point
Don’t know
0%
-1 point
Shapiro receives 62% job approval
Josh Shapiro receives 62% approval, compared with 34% disapproval. Strongly and somewhat held views are shown separately, preserving the report’s rounded detail.
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Strongly approve
37%
+3 points
Somewhat approve
25%
+1 point
Somewhat disapprove
13%
+1 point
Strongly disapprove
21%
-1 point
Don’t know
4%
-3 points
Early voting
8% of likely voters say they have already voted (41 respondents), almost all by mail. Early voters back Sabih 86% to 9% over Mackenzie; voters who have not yet cast a ballot split 47% to 50%. Early votes are counted in the toplines, using the choice each early voter reported.
Same voters, two waves
96.2% gave the same 2024 recall both times, 94.6% made the same HD-131 choice and 96.2% the same Governor choice. Among these voters, 5 moved from Mackenzie to Sabih and 2 moved the other way; 0 September undecideds now back Sabih and 0 back Mackenzie.
These results follow the same 184 respondents in both surveys and are unweighted. Select Same voters, two waves in Explore all results for the wave comparisons.
Where respondents are leaning
Each dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its reported municipality. These map responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results. Dot positions are not respondents’ locations.
Candidate
Voting likelihood
Team notes and analysis
The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.
Chaz Nuttycombe on ticket splitting
Mackenzie's crossover appeal is fading
In September, Meriam Sabih and Milou Mackenzie were tied at 47%, and Mackenzie was running 8 points ahead of Stacy Garrity (47% to 39%) on the strength of Josh Shapiro voters: she won 13% of them. A month later, Sabih leads 51% to 46%, while the top of the ticket barely moved, with Shapiro ahead 56% to 41% after leading 55% to 39% in September. The movement is down-ballot. Sabih now wins 88% of Shapiro voters, up from 82%, while Mackenzie's share of them has dropped to 10%, and she now runs 5 points ahead of Garrity instead of 8. Sabih is also holding her own crossover vote, taking 14% of registered Republicans, up from 12%. With the undecided pool down to 3% of likely voters, Mackenzie's path depends on winning back the Shapiro voters she's lost.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing, PDF page 9.
Explore all results
Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.
2024 President: Trump +10.2
Response
Value
Trump (R)
55%
Harris (D)
44%
2022 Governor: Shapiro +5.5
Response
Value
Shapiro (D)
52%
Mastriano (R)
46%
2022 U.S. Senate: Oz +4.3
Response
Value
Oz (R)
51%
Fetterman (D)
46%
2024 State House: Mackenzie +14.5
Response
Value
Mackenzie (R)
57%
Sabih (D)
43%
Party registration
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Democratic
38.4%
-0.9 points
Republican
49.2%
+0.5 points
No Party / Other
12.4%
+0.4 points
Ideology groups
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Progressive (7-10)
28%
-1 point
Moderate (4-6)
31%
-1 point
Conservative (0-3)
38%
+3 points
Skipped / Don’t know
3%
-1 point
2024 presidential vote recalled
Response
Value
Trump (R)
45.5%
Harris (D)
49.6%
Third party
2.3%
Did not vote / No response
2.7%
Age
Response
Value
18-29
7%
30-44
19%
45-64
36%
65 or older
38%
Education
Response
Value
Less than bachelor’s
42%
Bachelor’s or higher
58%
Voting in the last four general elections
Response
Value
4 of 4
69%
3 of 4
16%
2 of 4
5%
1 of 4
6%
0 of 4
3%
HD-131 ballot with leaners
If the election for Pennsylvania State House District 131 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Meriam Sabih (D)
51%
+4 points
Milou Mackenzie (R)
46%
-1 point
Don’t know
3%
-3 points
HD-131 initial ballot
If the election for Pennsylvania State House District 131 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Meriam Sabih (D)
50%
+4 points
Milou Mackenzie (R)
46%
0 points
Don’t know
4%
-4 points
Governor ballot with leaners
If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Josh Shapiro (D)
56%
+1 point
Stacy Garrity (R)
41%
+2 points
Don’t know
3%
-3 points
Governor initial ballot
If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Josh Shapiro (D)
56%
+2 points
Stacy Garrity (R)
39%
+2 points
Don’t know
5%
-4 points
President Trump job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Approve
42%
+2 points
Disapprove
58%
-2 points
Don’t know
0%
-1 point
President Trump job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Strongly approve
27%
+2 points
Somewhat approve
15%
+1 point
Somewhat disapprove
4%
-1 point
Strongly disapprove
54%
-1 point
Don’t know
0%
-1 point
Governor Shapiro job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Approve
62%
+4 points
Disapprove
34%
0 points
Don’t know
4%
-3 points
Governor Shapiro job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Strongly approve
37%
+3 points
Somewhat approve
25%
+1 point
Somewhat disapprove
13%
+1 point
Strongly disapprove
21%
-1 point
Don’t know
4%
-3 points
2024 presidential recall among repeat respondents
The same 184 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
September
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since September
Harris (D)
50.0%
51.6%
92
95
+1.6 points
Trump (R)
44.6%
44.6%
82
82
0 points
Third party
2.7%
1.6%
5
3
-1.1 points
No vote / No answer
2.7%
2.2%
5
4
-0.5 points
HD-131 ballot among repeat respondents
The same 184 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
September
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since September
Sabih (D)
51.1%
51.6%
94
95
+0.5 points
Mackenzie (R)
47.3%
45.1%
87
83
-2.2 points
Undecided
1.6%
3.3%
3
6
+1.6 points
Governor ballot among repeat respondents
The same 184 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
September
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since September
Shapiro (D)
57.6%
56.5%
106
104
-1.1 points
Garrity (R)
37.5%
38.0%
69
70
+0.5 points
Undecided
4.9%
5.4%
9
10
+0.5 points
Voting likelihood among repeat respondents
The same 184 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
September
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since September
Already voted
Not labeled in PDF
10.3%
Not labeled in PDF
19
Not labeled
Definitely voting
95.7%
84.8%
176
156
-10.9 points
Probably voting
3.3%
3.8%
6
7
+0.5 points
Unlikely to vote
1.1%
1.1%
2
2
0 points
Ideology by voter group
Ideology is respondents' self-placement on a 0-10 scale (10 = most progressive, 0 = far right). Detailed shares are of all respondents; 3.0% skipped the question. Group averages are weighted and computed among those who placed themselves (overall mean 4.7).
Response
Value
Sabih voters (D)
6.9
Shapiro voters (D)
6.6
All voters
4.7
Undecided House voters
4.1
Mackenzie voters (R)
2.5
Garrity voters (R)
2.3
Detailed ideological self-placement
Response
Value
10. Democratic Socialist
7%
9. Extremely Progressive/Liberal
4%
8. Very Progressive/Liberal
5%
7. Progressive/Liberal
12%
6. Center-left
10%
5. Moderate / Centrist
11%
4. Center-right
10%
3. Conservative
15%
2. Very Conservative
11%
1. Extremely Conservative
6%
0. Far Right
6%
Skipped / Don’t know
3%
Regional shares of the weighted sample
Response
Value
UPPER SAUCON TWP
26.3%
UPPER MILFORD TWP
13.7%
LOWER SAUCON TWP
13.1%
UPPER HANOVER TWP
12.7%
LOWER MILFORD TWP
6.3%
MARL TWP
5.8%
SALFORD TWP
4.9%
PENNSBURG BORO
4.3%
EAST GREENVILLE BORO
3.6%
RED HILL BORO
3.6%
COOPERSBURG BORO
3.5%
SALISBURY TWP (LEHIGH)
1.7%
GREEN LANE BORO
0.6%
District regions
The map shows the surveyed district’s boundaries and weighting regions. Percentages are shares of the weighted likely-voter sample.
Response
Value
UPPER SAUCON TWP
26.3%
UPPER MILFORD TWP
13.7%
LOWER SAUCON TWP
13.1%
UPPER HANOVER TWP
12.7%
LOWER MILFORD TWP
6.3%
MARL TWP
5.8%
SALFORD TWP
4.9%
PENNSBURG BORO
4.3%
EAST GREENVILLE BORO
3.6%
RED HILL BORO
3.6%
COOPERSBURG BORO
3.5%
SALISBURY TWP (LEHIGH)
1.7%
GREEN LANE BORO
0.6%
How the survey was conducted
State Navigate surveyed 464 likely voters (528 respondents) in Pennsylvania's 131st State House of Representatives District from October 10-14, 2026, including voters who had already cast a ballot. This is a follow-up to our September 18-20, 2026 poll: 184 respondents took both surveys, matched by ID. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and region to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 4.5% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.
