Mackenzie and Sabih are tied in Pennsylvania’s 131st House District
State Navigate’s September 18-20 survey finds Milou Mackenzie at 47%, Meriam Sabih at 47%, and 6% undecided after leaner follow-up. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot 55%-39% among these same district voters.
Election date
November 3, 2026
Field dates
September 18-20, 2026
Sample
389 likely voters
Margin of error
+/- 5.0 points
Mackenzie and Sabih are tied at 47%
Milou Mackenzie receives 47%, Meriam Sabih receives 47%, with 6% undecided. Before the follow-up, Mackenzie received 46%, Sabih received 46%, with 8% undecided. These paired results do not identify individual voter movement.
View chart values
State House ballot with leaners
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Milou Mackenzie (R)
46%
47%
Meriam Sabih (D)
46%
47%
Don’t know
8%
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Includes the leaner follow-up.
Where respondents are leaning
458 unweighted responses from the supplied map export. These responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results above. Each dot represents one response, placed within its municipality rather than at a respondent’s address.
Candidate
Vote certainty
Drag to pan or pinch with two fingers to zoom. With the map focused, use + and - to zoom and 0 to reset. Hover over a dot for its response or focus a municipality for its counts. Percentages reflect the selected certainty groups. Dot positions are illustrative, not precise respondent locations.
Shapiro leads by 16 points in the same district
Josh Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity 55%-39% with leaners included. Before the follow-up, the ballot stood at 54%-37%. These results describe House District 131 voters, not the statewide electorate.
View chart values
Governor ballot with leaners
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)
54%
55%
Stacy Garrity (R)
37%
39%
Don’t know
9%
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Includes the leaner follow-up. These results describe this district’s electorate, not statewide opinion.
60% of district voters disapprove of Trump
Donald Trump’s topline job approval is 40%, with 60% disapproval and 1% who do not know. Detailed responses show 25% strongly approve, 14% somewhat approve, 5% somewhat disapprove, and 55% strongly disapprove.
View chart values
President Trump job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
25%
Somewhat approve
14%
Somewhat disapprove
5%
Strongly disapprove
55%
Don’t know
1%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded.
Shapiro’s approval stands at 58%
Josh Shapiro’s topline job approval is 58%, with 34% disapproval and 7% who do not know. Detailed responses show 34% strongly approve, 24% somewhat approve, 12% somewhat disapprove, and 22% strongly disapprove.
View chart values
Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
34%
Somewhat approve
24%
Somewhat disapprove
12%
Strongly disapprove
22%
Don’t know
7%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded. Published shares total 99%.
Team notes and analysis
The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.
Mary Radcliffe on undecided voters
The few undecideds may lean Sabih's way.
Only 6% of voters in our survey say they are undecided on the HD-131 race, a relatively small sample size. But there may be some good news for Sabih in this group: 64% say they disapprove of Trump, and they break for Shapiro in the gubernatorial race by 38 points (though almost half are undecided in that race as well). Given the small sample size, though, these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but there's other indications that undecideds might ultimately lean a bit more Democratic. For example, 5% of Shapiro voters are undecided in the House race, compared with just 1% of Garrity voters.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 8.
Mary Radcliffe on voter propensity
The most frequent voters are keeping this race close.
The most frequent voters are helping Sabih keep this race close. Among voters who have participated in 4 out of the last 4 general elections, the race is a 49-49 tie. Among all other voters, Mackenzie has a 3-point lead, 45-42. However, 4-out-of-4 voters are much more likely to have their minds made up, with just 2% undecided compared to 13% among the rest of the electorate, and as mentioned above, that group may hold the key for Sabih in November.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 8.
Explore all results
Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.
2024 presidential election
View chart values
2024 presidential election
Response
Value
Trump (R)
55%
Harris (D)
44%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 131, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Trump +10.2. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 99%.
2022 governor election
View chart values
2022 governor election
Response
Value
Shapiro (D)
52%
Mastriano (R)
46%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 131, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Shapiro +5.5. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 98%.
2022 U.S. Senate election
View chart values
2022 U.S. Senate election
Response
Value
Oz (R)
51%
Fetterman (D)
46%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 131, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Oz +4.3. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 97%.
2024 State House election
View chart values
2024 State House election
Response
Value
Mackenzie (R)
57%
Sabih (D)
43%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 131, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Mackenzie +14.5. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages.
Party registration
View chart values
Party registration
Response
Value
Democrat
39%
Republican
49%
Independent / Other
12%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131.
Ideological self-identification
View chart values
Ideological self-identification
Response
Value
Progressives / Liberals
29%
Moderates / Center
32%
Conservatives
35%
Skipped / Don’t know
4%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131.
Age
View chart values
Age
Response
Value
18-29
7%
30-44
18%
45-64
36%
65 or older
39%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131.
Race / ethnicity
View chart values
Race / ethnicity
Response
Value
White
91%
Asian / Pacific Islander
2%
Latino / Hispanic
3%
Other
1%
Two or more
2%
Black
1%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131.
Education
View chart values
Education
Response
Value
Less than bachelor’s
43%
Bachelor’s or higher
57%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131.
Vote history in the last four general elections
View chart values
Vote history in the last four general elections
Response
Value
4 of 4
65%
3 of 4
16%
2 of 4
5%
1 of 4
7%
0 of 4
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Published shares total 99%.
State House ballot with leaners
If the election for Pennsylvania State House of Representatives District 131 were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
State House ballot with leaners
Response
Value
Milou Mackenzie (R)
47%
Meriam Sabih (D)
47%
Don’t know
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Includes the leaner follow-up.
State House ballot before leaner follow-up
If the election for Pennsylvania State House of Representatives District 131 were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
State House ballot before leaner follow-up
Response
Value
Milou Mackenzie (R)
46%
Meriam Sabih (D)
46%
Don’t know
8%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Initial ballot, before the leaner follow-up.
Governor ballot with leaners
If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
Governor ballot with leaners
Response
Value
Josh Shapiro (D)
55%
Stacy Garrity (R)
39%
Don’t know
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Includes the leaner follow-up. These results describe this district’s electorate, not statewide opinion.
Governor ballot before leaner follow-up
If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
Governor ballot before leaner follow-up
Response
Value
Josh Shapiro (D)
54%
Stacy Garrity (R)
37%
Don’t know
9%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Initial ballot, before the leaner follow-up. These results describe this district’s electorate, not statewide opinion.
President Trump job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
View chart values
President Trump job approval
Response
Value
Approve
40%
Disapprove
60%
Don’t know
1%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Values follow the published topline chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded. Published shares total 101%.
President Trump job approval - detailed
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
View chart values
President Trump job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
25%
Somewhat approve
14%
Somewhat disapprove
5%
Strongly disapprove
55%
Don’t know
1%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded.
Governor Shapiro job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
View chart values
Governor Shapiro job approval
Response
Value
Approve
58%
Disapprove
34%
Don’t know
7%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Values follow the published topline chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded. Published shares total 99%.
Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
View chart values
Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
34%
Somewhat approve
24%
Somewhat disapprove
12%
Strongly disapprove
22%
Don’t know
7%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded. Published shares total 99%.
Average ideology by voter group
View chart values
Average ideology by voter group
Response
Value
Sabih voters
6.8 on a 0-10 scale
Shapiro voters
6.4 on a 0-10 scale
All voters
4.7 on a 0-10 scale
Undecided voters
4 on a 0-10 scale
Mackenzie voters
2.8 on a 0-10 scale
Garrity voters
2.5 on a 0-10 scale
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 6. Respondents giving a self-placement score, within each named voter group. Means are among respondents who placed themselves on the scale. The PDF reports 3.9% skipped this question. 0 is far right; 10 is most progressive.
Ideological self-placement
View chart values
Ideological self-placement
Response
Value
10 - Democratic Socialist
4%
9 - Extremely Progressive / Liberal
3%
8 - Very Progressive / Liberal
7%
7 - Progressive / Liberal
15%
6 - Center-left
9%
5 - Moderate / Centrist
14%
4 - Center-right
9%
3 - Conservative
15%
2 - Very Conservative
9%
1 - Extremely Conservative
6%
0 - Far Right
5%
Skipped / Don’t know
4%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 6. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Shares use all respondents. The accompanying text reports 3.9% skipped. 0 is far right; 10 is most progressive.
Region weights
View chart values
Region weights
Response
Value
Upper Saucon township
26.2%
Upper Milford township
13.3%
Lower Saucon township
13.3%
Upper Hanover township
12.8%
Lower Milford township
6.7%
Marlborough township
6.0%
Pennsburg borough
4.5%
Salford township
4.5%
Coopersburg borough
3.8%
Red Hill borough
3.5%
East Greenville borough
3.1%
Salisbury township
1.6%
Green Lane borough
0.6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 7. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Shares of the weighted likely-voter sample, not land-area shares. Published shares total 99.9%.
HD-131 by region
View chart values
HD-131 by region
Response
Value
Upper Saucon township
26.2%
Upper Milford township
13.3%
Lower Saucon township
13.3%
Upper Hanover township
12.8%
Lower Milford township
6.7%
Marlborough township
6.0%
Pennsburg borough
4.5%
Salford township
4.5%
Coopersburg borough
3.8%
Red Hill borough
3.5%
East Greenville borough
3.1%
Salisbury township
1.6%
Green Lane borough
0.6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-131 poll briefing - PDF page 7. 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 131. Regional boundaries are clipped to the surveyed district. Legend percentages are weighted sample shares, not land-area shares. Street-map background omitted. Published shares total 99.9%.
How the survey was conducted
State Navigate surveyed 389 likely voters in Pennsylvania's 131st State House District from September 18-20, 2026. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and township to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 5.0% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.
