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Egan narrowly leads Hogan in Pennsylvania HD-142

State Navigate’s October 9-11 survey finds Kristin Egan (D) at 50% and Joe Hogan (R) at 46% after leaner follow-up, with 5% undecided. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot among these same district voters.

Election date
November 3, 2026
Field dates
October 9-11, 2026
Sample
438 likely voters
Margin of error
+/- 4.7 points

Egan leads 50% to 46%

Kristin Egan (D) leads Joe Hogan (R) after leaner follow-up, with 5% undecided. The initial ballot is shown alongside the follow-up.

ResponseInitial ballotWith leaners
Kristin Egan (D)49%50%
Joe Hogan (R)46%46%
Don’t know5%5%

Shapiro leads the governor ballot, 64% to 34%

Josh Shapiro (D) leads Stacy Garrity (R) among these district voters after leaner follow-up, with 3% undecided. The chart compares the initial ballot with the leaner follow-up.

ResponseInitial ballotWith leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)63%64%
Stacy Garrity (R)31%34%
Don’t know6%3%

61% disapprove of Trump’s performance

Donald Trump receives 37% approval and 61% disapproval. The detailed responses distinguish strong and softer opinions; the separately rounded topline is available in Explore all results.

ResponseValueChange since July 31-August 3, 2026
Strongly approve26%+1 point
Somewhat approve11%+1 point
Somewhat disapprove5%0 points
Strongly disapprove56%-2 points
Don’t know2%0 points

Shapiro receives 67% job approval

Josh Shapiro receives 67% approval, compared with 29% disapproval. Strongly and somewhat held views are shown separately, preserving the report’s rounded detail.

ResponseValueChange since July 31-August 3, 2026
Strongly approve40%-1 point
Somewhat approve27%+4 points
Somewhat disapprove13%+1 point
Strongly disapprove16%0 points
Don’t know4%-4 points

Early voting

14% of likely voters say they have already voted (63 respondents), almost all by mail. Early voters back Egan 73% to 25% over Hogan; voters who have not yet cast a ballot split 46% to 49%. Early votes are counted in the toplines, using the choice each early voter reported.

Same voters, two waves

97.5% gave the same 2024 recall both times, 92.5% made the same HD-142 choice and 94.5% the same Governor choice. Among these voters, 7 moved from Hogan to Egan and 3 moved the other way; 1 July undecideds now back Egan and 1 back Hogan.

These results follow the same 200 respondents in both surveys and are unweighted. Select Same voters, two waves in Explore all results for the wave comparisons.

Where respondents are leaning

Each dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its reported municipality. These map responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results. Dot positions are not respondents’ locations.

HD-142 response mapEach dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its municipality.Langhorne Manor boroughLanghorne boroughLower Southampton townshipPenndel boroughMiddletown townshipNorthampton townshipHulmeville borough

Team notes and analysis

The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.

Chaz Nuttycombe on the topline

Same race, different coalitions

On the surface, almost nothing has changed in HD-142 since July. Kristin Egan led Joe Hogan by 4 points with leaners in our first poll (48% to 44%), and she still leads by 4 (50% to 46%), with the undecideds splitting about evenly between them as their share fell from 8% to 5%. Underneath that stable topline, though, both candidates have traded groups. Egan gained ground with working-class voters and Lower Southampton: she now leads 53% to 43% among voters in households earning under $100,000 a year, up from a 2-point deficit in July, and she flipped Lower Southampton from a 4-point Hogan lead to an 8-point lead of her own. Hogan answered with upper-middle-class voters and Middletown: among households earning $100,000 to $150,000, a 17-point Egan lead in July has shrunk to 3, and Hogan now leads in Middletown, home to half the district's voters, 50% to 47% after trailing there by 5. The coalitions shifted, but the gains canceled out.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-142 poll briefing, PDF page 9.

Chaz Nuttycombe on undecideds

The remaining undecideds are Shapiro voters with a soft spot for Trump

The undecided pool in the State House race has shrunk from 8% of likely voters in July to 5%, and the voters still on the fence are an unusual mix. They're now overwhelmingly backing Josh Shapiro, 70% to 6% over Stacy Garrity, a far wider margin than the 39% to 18% he had among undecideds in July. But they're warmer to President Trump than the district as a whole: 39% approve of the job he's doing, up from 24% in July and compared to 37% districtwide, and 53% disapprove, compared to 61% of all likely voters. Their party registration hasn't moved much, with 43% registered Republicans and 25% registered Democrats. That profile, Republicans who like Shapiro and don't mind Trump, is exactly the kind of voter Joe Hogan has been winning: he already takes 17% of Shapiro voters, more than any other Republican we polled in Bucks County. If these undecideds break the way their party registration and Trump approval suggest, Hogan stands to gain more from them than Kristin Egan.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-142 poll briefing, PDF page 9.

Explore all results

Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.

2024 President: Trump +3.3

ResponseValue
Trump (R)51%
Harris (D)48%

2022 Governor: Shapiro +18.4

ResponseValue
Shapiro (D)58%
Mastriano (R)40%

2022 State House: Hogan +0.2

ResponseValue
Hogan (R)50%
Moffa (D)50%

2024 State House: Hogan +9.2

ResponseValue
Hogan (R)55%
Payne (D)45%

Party registration

ResponseValueChange since July 31-August 3, 2026
Democratic45.6%+0.3 points
Republican45.2%+0.4 points
No Party / Other9.2%-0.7 points

Ideology groups

ResponseValueChange since July 31-August 3, 2026
Progressive (7-10)26%-1 point
Moderate (4-6)39%+4 points
Conservative (0-3)30%0 points
Skipped / Don’t know5%-2 points

2024 presidential vote recalled

ResponseValue
Trump (R)43.3%
Harris (D)51.1%
Third party2.4%
Did not vote / No response3.1%

Age

ResponseValue
18-297%
30-4419%
45-6433%
65 or older42%

Education

ResponseValue
Less than bachelor’s42%
Bachelor’s or higher58%

Voting in the last four general elections

ResponseValue
4 of 469%
3 of 413%
2 of 47%
1 of 47%
0 of 43%

HD-142 ballot with leaners

If the election for Pennsylvania State House District 142 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.

ResponseValueChange since July 31-August 3, 2026
Kristin Egan (D)50%+2 points
Joe Hogan (R)46%+2 points
Don’t know5%-3 points

HD-142 initial ballot

If the election for Pennsylvania State House District 142 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.

ResponseValueChange since July 31-August 3, 2026
Kristin Egan (D)49%+2 points
Joe Hogan (R)46%+3 points
Don’t know5%-5 points

Governor ballot with leaners

If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.

ResponseValueChange since July 31-August 3, 2026
Josh Shapiro (D)64%+3 points
Stacy Garrity (R)34%+1 point
Don’t know3%-3 points

Governor initial ballot

If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.

ResponseValueChange since July 31-August 3, 2026
Josh Shapiro (D)63%+4 points
Stacy Garrity (R)31%-1 point
Don’t know6%-3 points

President Trump job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

ResponseValueChange since July 31-August 3, 2026
Approve37%+2 points
Disapprove61%-2 points
Don’t know2%0 points

President Trump job approval in detail

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

ResponseValueChange since July 31-August 3, 2026
Strongly approve26%+1 point
Somewhat approve11%+1 point
Somewhat disapprove5%0 points
Strongly disapprove56%-2 points
Don’t know2%0 points

Governor Shapiro job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?

ResponseValueChange since July 31-August 3, 2026
Approve67%+3 points
Disapprove29%+1 point
Don’t know4%-4 points

Governor Shapiro job approval in detail

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?

ResponseValueChange since July 31-August 3, 2026
Strongly approve40%-1 point
Somewhat approve27%+4 points
Somewhat disapprove13%+1 point
Strongly disapprove16%0 points
Don’t know4%-4 points

2024 presidential recall among repeat respondents

The same 200 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.

ResponseJuly / AugustOctoberEarlier respondentsOctober respondentsChange since July / August
Harris (D)61.5%61.5%1231230 points
Trump (R)36.0%36.0%72720 points
Third party1.0%1.0%220 points
No vote / No answer1.5%1.5%330 points

HD-142 ballot among repeat respondents

The same 200 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.

ResponseJuly / AugustOctoberEarlier respondentsOctober respondentsChange since July / August
Egan (D)54.0%55.0%108110+1 point
Hogan (R)43.0%41.5%8683-1.5 points
Undecided3.0%3.5%67+0.5 points

Governor ballot among repeat respondents

The same 200 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.

ResponseJuly / AugustOctoberEarlier respondentsOctober respondentsChange since July / August
Shapiro (D)67.5%67.5%1351350 points
Garrity (R)29.5%29.5%59590 points
Undecided3.0%3.0%660 points

Voting likelihood among repeat respondents

The same 200 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.

ResponseJuly / AugustOctoberEarlier respondentsOctober respondentsChange since July / August
Already votedNot labeled in PDF15.0%Not labeled in PDF30Not labeled
Definitely voting97.5%82.0%195164-15.5 points
Probably voting2.5%2.0%54-0.5 points
Unlikely to voteNot labeled in PDF1.0%Not labeled in PDF2Not labeled

Ideology by voter group

Ideology is respondents' self-placement on a 0-10 scale (10 = most progressive, 0 = far right). Detailed shares are of all respondents; 4.5% skipped the question. Group averages are weighted and computed among those who placed themselves (overall mean 5.0).

ResponseValue
Egan voters (D)6.8
Shapiro voters (D)6.3
All voters5
Undecided House voters5
Hogan voters (R)3
Garrity voters (R)2.6

Detailed ideological self-placement

ResponseValue
10. Democratic Socialist7%
9. Extremely Progressive/Liberal3%
8. Very Progressive/Liberal7%
7. Progressive/Liberal9%
6. Center-left13%
5. Moderate / Centrist15%
4. Center-right11%
3. Conservative13%
2. Very Conservative8%
1. Extremely Conservative6%
0. Far Right3%
Skipped / Don’t know5%

Regional shares of the weighted sample

ResponseValue
Middletown Twp50.2%
Lower Southampton Twp29.7%
Northampton Twp12.9%
Penndel Boro3.1%
Langhorne Boro2.4%
Langhorne Manor Boro1.7%

District regions

The map shows the surveyed district’s boundaries and weighting regions. Percentages are shares of the weighted likely-voter sample.

District regionsMiddletown Twp - 50.2% of weighted sampleMiddletown Twp 50.2%Lower Southampton Twp - 29.7% of weighted sampleLower Southampton Twp 29.7%Northampton Twp - 12.9% of weighted sampleNorthampton Twp 12.9%Penndel Boro - 3.1% of weighted samplePenndel Boro 3.1%Langhorne Boro - 2.4% of weighted sampleLanghorne Boro 2.4%Langhorne Manor Boro - 1.7% of weighted sampleLanghorne Manor Boro 1.7%
ResponseValue
Middletown Twp50.2%
Lower Southampton Twp29.7%
Northampton Twp12.9%
Penndel Boro3.1%
Langhorne Boro2.4%
Langhorne Manor Boro1.7%

How the survey was conducted

State Navigate surveyed 438 likely voters (495 respondents) in Pennsylvania's 142nd State House of Representatives District from October 9-11, 2026, including voters who had already cast a ballot. This is a follow-up to our July 31-August 3, 2026 poll: 200 respondents took both surveys, matched by ID. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by i360 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and region to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 4.7% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.

Download the complete poll briefing (PDF)