State Navigate’s October 10-14 survey finds Tim Hayes (D) at 48% and Shelby Labs (R) at 45% after leaner follow-up, with 4% undecided. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot among these same district voters.
Election date
November 3, 2026
Field dates
October 10-14, 2026
Sample
486 likely voters
Margin of error
+/- 4.4 points
Hayes leads 48% to 45%
Tim Hayes (D) leads Shelby Labs (R), 48% to 45%, after leaner follow-up. Chris Gambino (FI) receives 3%, and 4% are undecided. The initial ballot is available in Explore all results.
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Tim Hayes (D)
48%
0 points
Shelby Labs (R)
45%
+2 points
Chris Gambino (FI)
3%
-1 point
Don’t know
4%
-1 point
Shapiro leads the governor ballot, 58% to 37%
Josh Shapiro (D) leads Stacy Garrity (R) among these district voters after leaner follow-up, with 5% undecided. The chart compares the initial ballot with the leaner follow-up.
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)
57%
58%
Stacy Garrity (R)
36%
37%
Don’t know
6%
5%
59% disapprove of Trump’s performance
Donald Trump receives 40% approval and 59% disapproval. The detailed responses distinguish strong and softer opinions; the separately rounded topline is available in Explore all results.
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Strongly approve
25%
+1 point
Somewhat approve
15%
+3 points
Somewhat disapprove
4%
-2 points
Strongly disapprove
55%
0 points
Don’t know
0%
-3 points
Shapiro receives 62% job approval
Josh Shapiro receives 62% approval, compared with 33% disapproval. Strongly and somewhat held views are shown separately, preserving the report’s rounded detail.
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Strongly approve
39%
+1 point
Somewhat approve
23%
0 points
Somewhat disapprove
14%
0 points
Strongly disapprove
19%
+2 points
Don’t know
5%
-2 points
Early voting
14% of likely voters say they have already voted (75 respondents), almost all by mail. Early voters back Hayes 61% to 36% over Labs; voters who have not yet cast a ballot split 46% to 47%. Early votes are counted in the toplines, using the choice each early voter reported.
Same voters, two waves
97.1% gave the same 2024 recall both times, 97.1% made the same HD-143 choice and 96.0% the same Governor choice. Among these voters, 1 moved from Labs to Hayes and 0 moved the other way; 0 September undecideds now back Hayes and 0 back Labs.
These results follow the same 175 respondents in both surveys and are unweighted. Select Same voters, two waves in Explore all results for the wave comparisons.
Where respondents are leaning
Each dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its reported municipality. These map responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results. Dot positions are not respondents’ locations.
Candidate
Voting likelihood
Team notes and analysis
The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.
Chaz Nuttycombe on the third candidate
Labs has brought home Garrity voters who were looking at Gambino
Tim Hayes's share hasn't moved since September: he's at 48% in both polls. Shelby Labs has gained 2 points, from 43% to 45%, and most of that looks like Republicans coming home from Chris Gambino, the Forward Independent candidate. In September, 94% of Stacy Garrity voters backed Labs and 6% backed Gambino; now Labs wins 97% of them and Gambino just 1%. Gambino's support has slipped from 4% to 3% overall, and what's left of it now comes more from Josh Shapiro voters, 4% of whom back him, up from 2%. These are small numbers of people, so treat the details with caution, but the direction matters in a 3-point race: Gambino is now pulling more from Hayes's side of the ledger than from Labs's.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing, PDF page 9.
Chaz Nuttycombe on recall
All of HD-143's bluer recall comes from five voters rewriting 2024
Our 2024 presidential recall in HD-143 is 1.0 point bluer than it was in September: likely voters now recall Kamala Harris winning by 6.8 points, up from 5.8, in a district Donald Trump actually carried by 5.5. Unlike most of our follow-up polls, the shift comes entirely from people changing their story, not from who answered. Two things moved our recall in opposite directions. About 175 voters took both of our surveys, and if every one of them had given us the same answer they gave in September, our October recall would be Harris +5.3. That's half a point redder than September, so the different mix of people answering this time actually pulled our recall toward Trump. Voters changing their answers then pushed it 1.5 points back toward Harris, from +5.3 to +6.8. Those two forces net out to the 1.0-point shift, which is why the answer changes add up to more than the whole shift. It took just five people, about 1% of the likely electorate: two who told us in September that they backed a third-party candidate and one who said they didn't vote now say they voted for Harris, one Trump voter now says Harris, and another Trump voter now declines to answer. Four of the five now back Tim Hayes, and the fifth is undecided.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing, PDF page 9.
Explore all results
Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.
2024 President: Trump +5.5
Response
Value
Trump (R)
52%
Harris (D)
47%
2022 Governor: Shapiro +10.9
Response
Value
Shapiro (D)
55%
Mastriano (R)
44%
2022 U.S. Senate: Oz +0.1
Response
Value
Oz (R)
49%
Fetterman (D)
49%
2024 State House: Labs +12.7
Response
Value
Labs (R)
56%
Breslin (D)
44%
Party registration
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Democratic
37.8%
-0.6 points
Republican
48.9%
-0.1 points
No Party / Other
13.4%
+0.7 points
Ideology groups
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Progressive (7-10)
30%
+3 points
Moderate (4-6)
32%
-4 points
Conservative (0-3)
34%
+4 points
Skipped / Don’t know
4%
-2 points
2024 presidential vote recalled
Response
Value
Trump (R)
42.9%
Harris (D)
49.7%
Third party
2.6%
Did not vote / No response
4.8%
Age
Response
Value
18-29
9%
30-44
19%
45-64
38%
65 or older
34%
Education
Response
Value
Less than bachelor’s
44%
Bachelor’s or higher
56%
Voting in the last four general elections
Response
Value
4 of 4
66%
3 of 4
16%
2 of 4
7%
1 of 4
6%
0 of 4
5%
HD-143 ballot with leaners
If the election for Pennsylvania State House District 143 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Tim Hayes (D)
48%
0 points
Shelby Labs (R)
45%
+2 points
Chris Gambino (FI)
3%
-1 point
Don’t know
4%
-1 point
HD-143 initial ballot
If the election for Pennsylvania State House District 143 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Tim Hayes (D)
47%
+1 point
Shelby Labs (R)
44%
+1 point
Chris Gambino (FI)
2%
-2 points
Don’t know
8%
+1 point
Governor ballot with leaners
If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Josh Shapiro (D)
58%
-2 points
Stacy Garrity (R)
37%
+2 points
Don’t know
5%
0 points
Governor initial ballot
If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Josh Shapiro (D)
57%
-2 points
Stacy Garrity (R)
36%
+3 points
Don’t know
6%
-2 points
President Trump job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Approve
40%
+3 points
Disapprove
59%
-2 points
Don’t know
0%
-3 points
President Trump job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Strongly approve
25%
+1 point
Somewhat approve
15%
+3 points
Somewhat disapprove
4%
-2 points
Strongly disapprove
55%
0 points
Don’t know
0%
-3 points
Governor Shapiro job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Approve
62%
+1 point
Disapprove
33%
+2 points
Don’t know
5%
-2 points
Governor Shapiro job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Change since September 18-20, 2026
Strongly approve
39%
+1 point
Somewhat approve
23%
0 points
Somewhat disapprove
14%
0 points
Strongly disapprove
19%
+2 points
Don’t know
5%
-2 points
2024 presidential recall among repeat respondents
The same 175 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
September
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since September
Harris (D)
57.7%
60.0%
101
105
+2.3 points
Trump (R)
34.9%
33.7%
61
59
-1.1 points
Third party
3.4%
2.3%
6
4
-1.1 points
No vote / No answer
4.0%
4.0%
7
7
0 points
HD-143 ballot among repeat respondents
The same 175 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
September
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since September
Hayes (D)
58.9%
59.4%
103
104
+0.6 points
Labs (R)
38.9%
36.0%
68
63
-2.9 points
Undecided
2.3%
4.6%
4
8
+2.3 points
Governor ballot among repeat respondents
The same 175 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
September
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since September
Shapiro (D)
69.7%
68.6%
122
120
-1.1 points
Garrity (R)
28.0%
28.6%
49
50
+0.6 points
Undecided
2.3%
2.9%
4
5
+0.6 points
Voting likelihood among repeat respondents
The same 175 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
September
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since September
Already voted
Not labeled in PDF
17.1%
Not labeled in PDF
30
Not labeled
Definitely voting
93.7%
80.0%
164
140
-13.7 points
Probably voting
5.1%
2.3%
9
4
-2.9 points
Unlikely to vote
1.1%
0.6%
2
1
-0.6 points
Ideology by voter group
Ideology is respondents' self-placement on a 0-10 scale (10 = most progressive, 0 = far right). Detailed shares are of all respondents; 4.1% skipped the question. Group averages are weighted and computed among those who placed themselves (overall mean 5.0).
Response
Value
Hayes voters (D)
7
Shapiro voters (D)
6.6
Undecided House voters
5.3
All voters
5
Labs voters (R)
2.8
Garrity voters (R)
2.5
Detailed ideological self-placement
Response
Value
10. Democratic Socialist
7%
9. Extremely Progressive/Liberal
3%
8. Very Progressive/Liberal
7%
7. Progressive/Liberal
13%
6. Center-left
10%
5. Moderate / Centrist
12%
4. Center-right
10%
3. Conservative
15%
2. Very Conservative
12%
1. Extremely Conservative
5%
0. Far Right
3%
Skipped / Don’t know
4%
Regional shares of the weighted sample
Response
Value
HILLTOWN TWP
24.7%
PLUMSTEAD TWP
21.6%
PERKASIE BORO
13.5%
BEDMINSTER TWP
12.1%
NEW BRITAIN TWP
11.7%
TINICUM TWP (BUCKS)
6.9%
SELLERSVILLE BORO
5.5%
DUBLIN BORO
2.6%
SILVERDALE BORO
1.2%
District regions
The map shows the surveyed district’s boundaries and weighting regions. Percentages are shares of the weighted likely-voter sample.
Response
Value
HILLTOWN TWP
24.7%
PLUMSTEAD TWP
21.6%
PERKASIE BORO
13.5%
BEDMINSTER TWP
12.1%
NEW BRITAIN TWP
11.7%
TINICUM TWP (BUCKS)
6.9%
SELLERSVILLE BORO
5.5%
DUBLIN BORO
2.6%
SILVERDALE BORO
1.2%
How the survey was conducted
State Navigate surveyed 486 likely voters (550 respondents) in Pennsylvania's 143rd State House of Representatives District from October 10-14, 2026, including voters who had already cast a ballot. This is a follow-up to our September 18-20, 2026 poll: 175 respondents took both surveys, matched by ID. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and region to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 4.4% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.
