Hayes leads Labs in Pennsylvania’s 143rd House District

State Navigate’s September 18-20 survey finds Tim Hayes at 48%, Shelby Labs at 43%, Chris Gambino at 4%, and 5% undecided after leaner follow-up. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot 60%-35% among these same district voters.

Election date: November 3, 2026
Field dates: September 18-20, 2026
Sample: 367 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 5.1 points

Hayes has a 5-point edge after leaners are included

Tim Hayes receives 48%, Shelby Labs receives 43%, Chris Gambino receives 4%, with 5% undecided. Before the follow-up, Hayes received 46%, Labs received 43%, Gambino received 4%, with 7% undecided. These paired results do not identify individual voter movement.

View chart values

State House ballot with leaners
Response	Initial ballot	With leaners
Tim Hayes (D)	46%	48%
Shelby Labs (R)	43%	43%
Chris Gambino (Forward Ind.)	4%	4%
Don’t know	7%	5%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143. Includes the leaner follow-up.

Where respondents are leaning

438 unweighted responses from the supplied map export. These responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results above. Each dot represents one response, placed within its municipality rather than at a respondent’s address.

Drag to pan or pinch with two fingers to zoom. With the map focused, use + and - to zoom and 0 to reset. Hover over a dot for its response or focus a municipality for its counts. Percentages reflect the selected certainty groups. Dot positions are illustrative, not precise respondent locations.

Shapiro leads by 25 points in the same district

Josh Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity 60%-35% with leaners included. Before the follow-up, the ballot stood at 59%-33%. These results describe House District 143 voters, not the statewide electorate.

View chart values

Governor ballot with leaners
Response	Initial ballot	With leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)	59%	60%
Stacy Garrity (R)	33%	35%
Don’t know	8%	5%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143. Includes the leaner follow-up. These results describe this district’s electorate, not statewide opinion.

61% of district voters disapprove of Trump

Donald Trump’s topline job approval is 37%, with 61% disapproval and 3% who do not know. Detailed responses show 24% strongly approve, 12% somewhat approve, 6% somewhat disapprove, and 55% strongly disapprove.

View chart values

President Trump job approval - detailed
Response	Value
Strongly approve	24%
Somewhat approve	12%
Somewhat disapprove	6%
Strongly disapprove	55%
Don’t know	3%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded.

Shapiro’s approval stands at 61%

Josh Shapiro’s topline job approval is 61%, with 31% disapproval and 7% who do not know. Detailed responses show 38% strongly approve, 23% somewhat approve, 14% somewhat disapprove, and 17% strongly disapprove.

View chart values

Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Response	Value
Strongly approve	38%
Somewhat approve	23%
Somewhat disapprove	14%
Strongly disapprove	17%
Don’t know	7%

Team notes and analysis

The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.

Mary Radcliffe on undecided voters

The few undecideds tilt toward Hayes.

Only 5% of voters in our survey say they are undecided on the HD-143 race, a relatively small sample size. But there may be good news for Hayes in this group: 49% say they disapprove of Trump, while just 26% approve. And none of the undecided voters say they plan to vote for Garrity in the gubernatorial race, while 47% say they'll vote for Shapiro and the rest say they don't know. Given the small sample size, though, these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but there's other indications that undecideds might ultimately lean a bit more Democratic. For example, none of Garrity's voters are undecided in the House race, while 4% of Shapiro's are.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 8.

Mary Radcliffe on crossover voting

Crossover voting only goes one way in the 143rd.

As a purple state, crossover voting isn't new in Pennsylvania, and we can expect to see some of that across the state, as Shapiro continues to overperform downballot candidates. However, it appears that at least in the 143rd House district, crossover voting only goes one way: 0% of Garrity voters plan to vote for Hayes in the House race, while 14% of Shapiro voters say they'll be voting for Labs.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 8.

Mary Radcliffe on the spoiler effect

Gambino may be costing Labs votes.

While only 4% of poll respondents say they plan to vote for Gambino, that's still almost as large as the margin between Hayes and Labs. And it could be hurting Labs: among voters that say they plan to vote for Garrity in the gubernatorial race, 6% also plan to vote for Gambino, while just 2% of Shapiro voters say the same. 4% of voters that identify as Republicans plan to vote for Gambino, compared to just 2% of those that identify as Democrats. While these are small differences, in a close race small differences can add up.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 8.

Michael Foley on the lack of gaps

Crosstabs are wonky.

The HD-143 crosstabs are a bit counterintuitive: unlike in the other HDs and SDs we polled, those with less than a Bachelor's degree and males are more likely to support the Democratic state house candidate, Hayes. Whether this is due in part to the presence of Gambino on the ballot or relatively small subsample sizes (150-180 weighted respondents) is unknown.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 8.

Explore all results

Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.

2024 presidential election

View chart values

2024 presidential election
Response	Value
Trump (R)	52%
Harris (D)	47%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 143, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Trump +5.5. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 99%.

2022 governor election

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2022 governor election
Response	Value
Shapiro (D)	55%
Mastriano (R)	44%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 143, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Shapiro +10.9. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 99%.

2022 U.S. Senate election

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2022 U.S. Senate election
Response	Value
Oz (R)	49%
Fetterman (D)	49%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 143, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Oz +0.1. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 98%.

2024 State House election

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2024 State House election
Response	Value
Labs (R)	56%
Breslin (D)	44%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 143, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Labs +12.7. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages.

Party registration

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Party registration
Response	Value
Democrat	38%
Republican	49%
Independent / Other	13%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143.

Ideological self-identification

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Ideological self-identification
Response	Value
Progressives / Liberals	27%
Moderates / Center	36%
Conservatives	30%
Skipped / Don’t know	6%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143. Published shares total 99%.

Age

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Age
Response	Value
18-29	9%
30-44	18%
45-64	38%
65 or older	35%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143.

Race / ethnicity

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Race / ethnicity
Response	Value
White	92%
Asian / Pacific Islander	2%
Latino / Hispanic	2%
Other	1%
Two or more	3%
Black	0%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143.

Education

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Education
Response	Value
Less than bachelor’s	43%
Bachelor’s or higher	57%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143.

Vote history in the last four general elections

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Vote history in the last four general elections
Response	Value
4 of 4	67%
3 of 4	17%
2 of 4	6%
1 of 4	5%
0 of 4	5%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143.

State House ballot with leaners

If the election for Pennsylvania State House of Representatives District 143 were held today, which candidate would you vote for?

View chart values

State House ballot with leaners
Response	Value
Tim Hayes (D)	48%
Shelby Labs (R)	43%
Chris Gambino (Forward Ind.)	4%
Don’t know	5%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143. Includes the leaner follow-up.

State House ballot before leaner follow-up

If the election for Pennsylvania State House of Representatives District 143 were held today, which candidate would you vote for?

View chart values

State House ballot before leaner follow-up
Response	Value
Tim Hayes (D)	46%
Shelby Labs (R)	43%
Chris Gambino (Forward Ind.)	4%
Don’t know	7%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143. Initial ballot, before the leaner follow-up.

Governor ballot with leaners

If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for?

View chart values

Governor ballot with leaners
Response	Value
Josh Shapiro (D)	60%
Stacy Garrity (R)	35%
Don’t know	5%

Governor ballot before leaner follow-up

If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for?

View chart values

Governor ballot before leaner follow-up
Response	Value
Josh Shapiro (D)	59%
Stacy Garrity (R)	33%
Don’t know	8%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143. Initial ballot, before the leaner follow-up. These results describe this district’s electorate, not statewide opinion.

President Trump job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

View chart values

President Trump job approval
Response	Value
Approve	37%
Disapprove	61%
Don’t know	3%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143. Values follow the published topline chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded. Published shares total 101%.

President Trump job approval - detailed

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

View chart values

President Trump job approval - detailed
Response	Value
Strongly approve	24%
Somewhat approve	12%
Somewhat disapprove	6%
Strongly disapprove	55%
Don’t know	3%

Governor Shapiro job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?

View chart values

Governor Shapiro job approval
Response	Value
Approve	61%
Disapprove	31%
Don’t know	7%

Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?

View chart values

Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Response	Value
Strongly approve	38%
Somewhat approve	23%
Somewhat disapprove	14%
Strongly disapprove	17%
Don’t know	7%

Average ideology by voter group

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Average ideology by voter group
Response	Value
Hayes voters	6.9 on a 0-10 scale
Shapiro voters	6.5 on a 0-10 scale
All voters	5.1 on a 0-10 scale
Undecided voters	4 on a 0-10 scale
Labs voters	3 on a 0-10 scale
Garrity voters	2.7 on a 0-10 scale

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 6. Respondents giving a self-placement score, within each named voter group. Means are among respondents who placed themselves on the scale. The PDF reports 6.1% skipped this question. 0 is far right; 10 is most progressive.

Ideological self-placement

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Ideological self-placement
Response	Value
10 - Democratic Socialist	6%
9 - Extremely Progressive / Liberal	5%
8 - Very Progressive / Liberal	6%
7 - Progressive / Liberal	10%
6 - Center-left	14%
5 - Moderate / Centrist	14%
4 - Center-right	9%
3 - Conservative	15%
2 - Very Conservative	7%
1 - Extremely Conservative	6%
0 - Far Right	3%
Skipped / Don’t know	6%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 6. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143. Shares use all respondents. The accompanying text reports 6.1% skipped. 0 is far right; 10 is most progressive. Published shares total 101%.

Region weights

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Region weights
Response	Value
Hilltown township	24.6%
Plumstead township	21.5%
Perkasie borough	13.8%
New Britain township	11.9%
Bedminster township	11.2%
Tinicum township	7.3%
Sellersville borough	5.7%
Dublin borough	2.8%
Silverdale borough	1.3%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 7. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143. Shares of the weighted likely-voter sample, not land-area shares. Published shares total 100.1%.

HD-143 by region

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HD-143 by region
Response	Value
Hilltown township	24.6%
Plumstead township	21.5%
Perkasie borough	13.8%
New Britain township	11.9%
Bedminster township	11.2%
Tinicum township	7.3%
Sellersville borough	5.7%
Dublin borough	2.8%
Silverdale borough	1.3%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-143 poll briefing - PDF page 7. 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 143. Regional boundaries are clipped to the surveyed district. Legend percentages are weighted sample shares, not land-area shares. Street-map background omitted. Published shares total 100.1%.

How the survey was conducted

State Navigate surveyed 367 likely voters in Pennsylvania's 143rd State House District from September 18-20, 2026. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and township to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 5.1% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.

Download the complete poll briefing (PDF)