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Staats narrowly leads Prendergast in Pennsylvania HD-145

State Navigate’s October 10-14 survey finds Craig Staats (R) at 49% and Rebecca Prendergast (I) at 46% after leaner follow-up, with 5% undecided. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot among these same district voters.

Election date
November 3, 2026
Field dates
October 10-14, 2026
Sample
514 likely voters
Margin of error
+/- 4.3 points

Staats leads 49% to 46%

Craig Staats (R) leads Rebecca Prendergast (I) after leaner follow-up, with 5% undecided. The initial ballot is shown alongside the follow-up.

ResponseInitial ballotWith leaners
Craig Staats (R)47%49%
Rebecca Prendergast (I)42%46%
Don’t know10%5%

Shapiro leads the governor ballot, 52% to 45%

Josh Shapiro (D) leads Stacy Garrity (R) among these district voters after leaner follow-up, with 3% undecided. The chart compares the initial ballot with the leaner follow-up.

ResponseInitial ballotWith leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)52%52%
Stacy Garrity (R)43%45%
Don’t know6%3%

54% disapprove of Trump’s performance

Donald Trump receives 45% approval and 54% disapproval. The detailed responses distinguish strong and softer opinions; the separately rounded topline is available in Explore all results.

ResponseValue
Strongly approve27%
Somewhat approve18%
Somewhat disapprove7%
Strongly disapprove47%
Don’t know1%

Shapiro receives 56% job approval

Josh Shapiro receives 56% approval, compared with 39% disapproval. Strongly and somewhat held views are shown separately, preserving the report’s rounded detail.

ResponseValue
Strongly approve31%
Somewhat approve25%
Somewhat disapprove17%
Strongly disapprove21%
Don’t know5%

Where respondents are leaning

Each dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its reported municipality. These map responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results. Dot positions are not respondents’ locations.

HD-145 response mapEach dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its municipality.Haycock townshipBridgeton townshipMilford townshipDurham townshipNockamixon townshipWest Rockhill townshipRichland townshipRichlandtown boroughSpringfield townshipQuakertown boroughRiegelsville boroughTelford boroughTrumbauersville boroughEast Rockhill township

Team notes and analysis

The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.

Chaz Nuttycombe on the independent

Prendergast is running as the Democrat in all but name

There's no Democrat on the ballot in HD-145, and Rebecca Prendergast is filling that space. She wins 87% of registered Democrats and 70% of voters registered with neither major party, while Craig Staats holds 82% of registered Republicans and Prendergast takes 14% of them. The same pattern shows up at the top of the ticket: Prendergast wins 81% of Josh Shapiro voters, and Staats wins 90% of Stacy Garrity voters. That's what makes this race close. Staats leads 49% to 46% in a district he carried by nearly 18 points in 2024, and Shapiro leads here 52% to 45% in a district Doug Mastriano narrowly carried in 2022. Staats runs 4 points ahead of Garrity, but he wins only 14% of Shapiro voters. If Prendergast holds the Shapiro coalition together, this race is a toss-up.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-145 poll briefing, PDF page 8.

Chaz Nuttycombe on recall

Our recall is bluer than the district, so read the margin with care

Likely voters in our HD-145 poll recall voting for Donald Trump by 6 points in 2024, in a district he carried by 15.5. That 9-point gap is smaller than in most of our other Pennsylvania polls this fall, but it runs in the direction that helps Prendergast. Some of it is likely voters misremembering or misreporting their 2024 vote in a year when Trump is unpopular: 54% of likely voters here disapprove of the job he's doing, and 45% approve. Some of it is probably who answered. We weight HD-145 to the district's party registration, which keeps the partisan mix in line, but if the remaining gap reflects Republican-leaning voters who were less willing to take our survey, Staats's true position is somewhat stronger than his 3-point lead suggests.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-145 poll briefing, PDF page 8.

Explore all results

Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.

2024 President: Trump +15.5

ResponseValue
Trump (R)57%
Harris (D)42%

2022 Governor: Mastriano +0.1

ResponseValue
Mastriano (R)49%
Shapiro (D)49%

2024 U.S. Senate: McCormick +14.6

ResponseValue
McCormick (R)56%
Casey (D)41%

2024 State House: Staats +17.8

ResponseValue
Staats (R)59%
Cole (D)41%

Party registration

ResponseValue
Democratic34.4%
Republican53.1%
No Party / Other12.6%

Party identification with leaners

ResponseValue
Democrat41%
Republican53%
Neither6%

2024 presidential vote recalled

ResponseValue
Trump (R)50.2%
Harris (D)43.9%
Third party1.1%
Did not vote / No response4.8%

Age

ResponseValue
18-297%
30-4418%
45-6436%
65 or older39%

Education

ResponseValue
Less than bachelor’s63%
Bachelor’s or higher37%

Voting in the last four general elections

ResponseValue
4 of 467%
3 of 416%
2 of 46%
1 of 46%
0 of 46%

HD-145 ballot with leaners

If the election for Pennsylvania State House District 145 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.)

ResponseValue
Craig Staats (R)49%
Rebecca Prendergast (I)46%
Don’t know5%

HD-145 initial ballot

If the election for Pennsylvania State House District 145 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.)

ResponseValue
Craig Staats (R)47%
Rebecca Prendergast (I)42%
Don’t know10%

Governor ballot with leaners

If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.)

ResponseValue
Josh Shapiro (D)52%
Stacy Garrity (R)45%
Don’t know3%

Governor initial ballot

If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.)

ResponseValue
Josh Shapiro (D)52%
Stacy Garrity (R)43%
Don’t know6%

President Trump job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

ResponseValue
Approve45%
Disapprove54%
Don’t know1%

President Trump job approval in detail

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

ResponseValue
Strongly approve27%
Somewhat approve18%
Somewhat disapprove7%
Strongly disapprove47%
Don’t know1%

Governor Shapiro job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?

ResponseValue
Approve56%
Disapprove39%
Don’t know5%

Governor Shapiro job approval in detail

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?

ResponseValue
Strongly approve31%
Somewhat approve25%
Somewhat disapprove17%
Strongly disapprove21%
Don’t know5%

Ideology by voter group

Ideology is respondents' self-placement on a 0-10 scale (10 = most progressive, 0 = far right). Detailed shares are of all respondents; 3.0% skipped the question. Group averages are weighted and computed among those who placed themselves (overall mean 4.6).

ResponseValue
Shapiro voters (D)6.5
Prendergast voters (I)6.4
Undecided House voters5.4
All voters4.6
Staats voters (R)2.7
Garrity voters (R)2.5

Detailed ideological self-placement

ResponseValue
10. Democratic Socialist6%
9. Extremely Progressive/Liberal3%
8. Very Progressive/Liberal7%
7. Progressive/Liberal10%
6. Center-left9%
5. Moderate / Centrist12%
4. Center-right10%
3. Conservative19%
2. Very Conservative12%
1. Extremely Conservative6%
0. Far Right4%
Skipped / Don’t know3%

Regional shares of the weighted sample

ResponseValue
Bridgeton2.1%
Durham / Riegelsville3.6%
East Rockhill10.2%
Haycock4.4%
Milford / Trumbauersville18.0%
Nockamixon5.8%
Quakertown11.5%
Richland / Richlandtown21.8%
Springfield9.6%
West Rockhill / Telford12.8%

District regions

The map shows the surveyed district’s boundaries and weighting regions. Percentages are shares of the weighted likely-voter sample.

District regionsBridgeton - 2.1% of weighted sampleBridgeton 2.1%Durham / Riegelsville - 3.6% of weighted sampleDurham / Riegelsville 3.6%East Rockhill - 10.2% of weighted sampleEast Rockhill 10.2%Haycock - 4.4% of weighted sampleHaycock 4.4%Milford / Trumbauersville - 18.0% of weighted sampleMilford / Trumbauersville 18.0%Nockamixon - 5.8% of weighted sampleNockamixon 5.8%Quakertown - 11.5% of weighted sampleQuakertown 11.5%Richland / Richlandtown - 21.8% of weighted sampleRichland / Richlandtown 21.8%Springfield - 9.6% of weighted sampleSpringfield 9.6%West Rockhill / Telford - 12.8% of weighted sampleWest Rockhill / Telford 12.8%
ResponseValue
Bridgeton2.1%
Durham / Riegelsville3.6%
East Rockhill10.2%
Haycock4.4%
Milford / Trumbauersville18%
Nockamixon5.8%
Quakertown11.5%
Richland / Richlandtown21.8%
Springfield9.6%
West Rockhill / Telford12.8%

How the survey was conducted

State Navigate surveyed 514 likely voters in Pennsylvania's 145th State House District from October 10-14, 2026. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and municipality to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 4.3% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.

Download the complete poll briefing (PDF)