Scheuren and Burke are nearly even in Pennsylvania’s 147th House District
State Navigate’s September 18-20 survey finds Donna M. Scheuren at 48%, Margaret Burke at 47%, and 5% undecided after leaner follow-up. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot 56%-41% among these same district voters.
Election date
November 3, 2026
Field dates
September 18-20, 2026
Sample
283 likely voters
Margin of error
+/- 5.8 points
Scheuren has a 1-point edge after leaners are included
Donna M. Scheuren receives 48%, Margaret Burke receives 47%, with 5% undecided. Before the follow-up, Scheuren received 46%, Burke received 46%, with 8% undecided. These paired results do not identify individual voter movement.
View chart values
State House ballot with leaners
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Donna M. Scheuren (R)
46%
48%
Margaret Burke (D)
46%
47%
Don’t know
8%
5%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Includes the leaner follow-up.
Where respondents are leaning
330 unweighted responses from the supplied map export. These responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results above. Each dot represents one response, placed within its municipality rather than at a respondent’s address.
Candidate
Vote certainty
Drag to pan or pinch with two fingers to zoom. With the map focused, use + and - to zoom and 0 to reset. Hover over a dot for its response or focus a municipality for its counts. Percentages reflect the selected certainty groups. Dot positions are illustrative, not precise respondent locations.
Shapiro leads by 15 points in the same district
Josh Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity 56%-41% with leaners included. Before the follow-up, the ballot stood at 56%-39%. These results describe House District 147 voters, not the statewide electorate.
View chart values
Governor ballot with leaners
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)
56%
56%
Stacy Garrity (R)
39%
41%
Don’t know
5%
2%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Includes the leaner follow-up. These results describe this district’s electorate, not statewide opinion. Published shares total 99%.
59% of district voters disapprove of Trump
Donald Trump’s topline job approval is 40%, with 59% disapproval and 1% who do not know. Detailed responses show 26% strongly approve, 14% somewhat approve, 6% somewhat disapprove, and 54% strongly disapprove.
View chart values
President Trump job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
26%
Somewhat approve
14%
Somewhat disapprove
6%
Strongly disapprove
54%
Don’t know
1%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded. Published shares total 101%.
Shapiro’s approval stands at 56%
Josh Shapiro’s topline job approval is 56%, with 36% disapproval and 7% who do not know. Detailed responses show 31% strongly approve, 25% somewhat approve, 19% somewhat disapprove, and 17% strongly disapprove.
View chart values
Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
31%
Somewhat approve
25%
Somewhat disapprove
19%
Strongly disapprove
17%
Don’t know
7%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded. Published shares total 99%.
Team notes and analysis
The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.
Mary Radcliffe on undecided voters
The few undecideds tilt toward Burke.
Only 5% of voters in the survey say they are undecided on the HD-147 race, a relatively small sample size. But there looks to be some good news for Burke in this group: 81% say they disapprove of Trump, and they break for Shapiro in the gubernatorial race by 50 points. Given the small sample size, though, these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but there's other indications that undecideds might ultimately lean a bit more Democratic. For example, 6% of Shapiro voters are undecided in the House race, compared with just 2% of Garrity voters.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 8.
Mary Radcliffe on crossover voting
Crossover voting only goes one way in the 147th.
As a purple state, crossover voting isn't new in Pennsylvania, and we can expect to see some of that across the state, as Shapiro continues to overperform downballot candidates. However, it appears that at least in the 147th House district, crossover voting only goes one way: 0% of Garrity voters plan to vote for Burke in the House race, while 10% of Shapiro voters say they'll be voting for Scheuren.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 8.
Mary Radcliffe on voter propensity
The most reliable voters lean Republican.
Among voters who have voted in all 4 of the last 4 general elections, Scheuren leads Burke 51% to 44%. Among the rest of the electorate, though, Burke leads 51% to 43%. Voters that missed at least one of the last 4 elections make up around 40% of the likely electorate, so Burke's strength with these voters is helping to keep this race close.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 8.
Explore all results
Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.
2024 presidential election
View chart values
2024 presidential election
Response
Value
Trump (R)
54%
Harris (D)
45%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 147, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Trump +9.7. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 99%.
2022 governor election
View chart values
2022 governor election
Response
Value
Shapiro (D)
52%
Mastriano (R)
47%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 147, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Shapiro +5.4. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 99%.
2022 U.S. Senate election
View chart values
2022 U.S. Senate election
Response
Value
Oz (R)
51%
Fetterman (D)
47%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 147, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Oz +4.4. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 98%.
2024 State House election
View chart values
2024 State House election
Response
Value
Scheuren (R)
59%
Leach (D)
41%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 147, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Scheuren +17.1. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages.
Party registration
View chart values
Party registration
Response
Value
Democrat
37%
Republican
50%
Independent / Other
12%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Published shares total 99%.
Ideological self-identification
View chart values
Ideological self-identification
Response
Value
Progressives / Liberals
27%
Moderates / Center
35%
Conservatives
34%
Skipped / Don’t know
3%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Published shares total 99%.
Age
View chart values
Age
Response
Value
18-29
8%
30-44
22%
45-64
37%
65 or older
33%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147.
Race / ethnicity
View chart values
Race / ethnicity
Response
Value
White
90%
Asian / Pacific Islander
2%
Latino / Hispanic
3%
Other
2%
Two or more
1%
Black
1%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Published shares total 99%.
Education
View chart values
Education
Response
Value
Less than bachelor’s
40%
Bachelor’s or higher
60%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147.
Vote history in the last four general elections
View chart values
Vote history in the last four general elections
Response
Value
4 of 4
61%
3 of 4
16%
2 of 4
11%
1 of 4
7%
0 of 4
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Published shares total 101%.
State House ballot with leaners
If the election for Pennsylvania State House of Representatives District 147 were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
State House ballot with leaners
Response
Value
Donna M. Scheuren (R)
48%
Margaret Burke (D)
47%
Don’t know
5%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Includes the leaner follow-up.
State House ballot before leaner follow-up
If the election for Pennsylvania State House of Representatives District 147 were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
State House ballot before leaner follow-up
Response
Value
Donna M. Scheuren (R)
46%
Margaret Burke (D)
46%
Don’t know
8%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Initial ballot, before the leaner follow-up.
Governor ballot with leaners
If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
Governor ballot with leaners
Response
Value
Josh Shapiro (D)
56%
Stacy Garrity (R)
41%
Don’t know
2%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Includes the leaner follow-up. These results describe this district’s electorate, not statewide opinion. Published shares total 99%.
Governor ballot before leaner follow-up
If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
Governor ballot before leaner follow-up
Response
Value
Josh Shapiro (D)
56%
Stacy Garrity (R)
39%
Don’t know
5%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Initial ballot, before the leaner follow-up. These results describe this district’s electorate, not statewide opinion.
President Trump job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
View chart values
President Trump job approval
Response
Value
Approve
40%
Disapprove
59%
Don’t know
1%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Values follow the published topline chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded.
President Trump job approval - detailed
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
View chart values
President Trump job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
26%
Somewhat approve
14%
Somewhat disapprove
6%
Strongly disapprove
54%
Don’t know
1%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded. Published shares total 101%.
Governor Shapiro job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
View chart values
Governor Shapiro job approval
Response
Value
Approve
56%
Disapprove
36%
Don’t know
7%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Values follow the published topline chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded. Published shares total 99%.
Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
View chart values
Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
31%
Somewhat approve
25%
Somewhat disapprove
19%
Strongly disapprove
17%
Don’t know
7%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded. Published shares total 99%.
Average ideology by voter group
View chart values
Average ideology by voter group
Response
Value
Burke voters
6.9 on a 0-10 scale
Shapiro voters
6.5 on a 0-10 scale
All voters
4.8 on a 0-10 scale
Undecided voters
4.7 on a 0-10 scale
Scheuren voters
2.7 on a 0-10 scale
Garrity voters
2.4 on a 0-10 scale
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 6. Respondents giving a self-placement score, within each named voter group. Means are among respondents who placed themselves on the scale. The PDF reports 3.3% skipped this question. 0 is far right; 10 is most progressive.
Ideological self-placement
View chart values
Ideological self-placement
Response
Value
10 - Democratic Socialist
5%
9 - Extremely Progressive / Liberal
3%
8 - Very Progressive / Liberal
7%
7 - Progressive / Liberal
13%
6 - Center-left
10%
5 - Moderate / Centrist
17%
4 - Center-right
8%
3 - Conservative
13%
2 - Very Conservative
9%
1 - Extremely Conservative
7%
0 - Far Right
4%
Skipped / Don’t know
3%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 6. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Shares use all respondents. The accompanying text reports 3.3% skipped. 0 is far right; 10 is most progressive. Published shares total 99%.
Region weights
View chart values
Region weights
Response
Value
Lower Salford township
24.5%
New Hanover township
19.5%
Douglass township
16.2%
Franconia township
13.6%
Upper Pottsgrove township
8.3%
Lower Frederick township
7.5%
Upper Frederick township
5.4%
Upper Salford township
5.0%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 7. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Shares of the weighted likely-voter sample, not land-area shares.
HD-147 by region
View chart values
HD-147 by region
Response
Value
Lower Salford township
24.5%
New Hanover township
19.5%
Douglass township
16.2%
Franconia township
13.6%
Upper Pottsgrove township
8.3%
Lower Frederick township
7.5%
Upper Frederick township
5.4%
Upper Salford township
5.0%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-147 poll briefing - PDF page 7. 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 147. Regional boundaries are clipped to the surveyed district. Legend percentages are weighted sample shares, not land-area shares. Street-map background omitted.
How the survey was conducted
State Navigate surveyed 283 likely voters in Pennsylvania's 147th State House District from September 18-20, 2026. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and township to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 5.8% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.
