State Navigate’s October 9-11 survey finds Bryan Allen (D) at 52% and Kathleen KC Tomlinson (R) at 42% after leaner follow-up, with 6% undecided. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot among these same district voters.
Election date
November 3, 2026
Field dates
October 9-11, 2026
Sample
328 likely voters
Margin of error
+/- 5.4 points
Allen leads 52% to 42%
Bryan Allen (D) leads Kathleen KC Tomlinson (R) after leaner follow-up, with 6% undecided. The initial ballot is shown alongside the follow-up.
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Bryan Allen (D)
52%
52%
Kathleen KC Tomlinson (R)
42%
42%
Don’t know
7%
6%
Shapiro leads the governor ballot, 61% to 34%
Josh Shapiro (D) leads Stacy Garrity (R) among these district voters after leaner follow-up, with 5% undecided. The chart compares the initial ballot with the leaner follow-up.
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)
61%
61%
Stacy Garrity (R)
33%
34%
Don’t know
6%
5%
60% disapprove of Trump’s performance
Donald Trump receives 37% approval and 60% disapproval. The detailed responses distinguish strong and softer opinions; the separately rounded topline is available in Explore all results.
Response
Value
Change since July 31-August 3, 2026
Strongly approve
24%
+2 points
Somewhat approve
13%
0 points
Somewhat disapprove
5%
-3 points
Strongly disapprove
55%
-1 point
Don’t know
3%
+1 point
Shapiro receives 65% job approval
Josh Shapiro receives 65% approval, compared with 29% disapproval. Strongly and somewhat held views are shown separately, preserving the report’s rounded detail.
Response
Value
Change since July 31-August 3, 2026
Strongly approve
43%
+3 points
Somewhat approve
22%
-3 points
Somewhat disapprove
12%
-2 points
Strongly disapprove
16%
+2 points
Don’t know
6%
-1 point
Early voting
16% of likely voters say they have already voted (54 respondents), almost all by mail. Early voters back Allen 63% to 33% over Tomlinson; voters who have not yet cast a ballot split 50% to 44%. Early votes are counted in the toplines, using the choice each early voter reported.
Same voters, two waves
95.3% gave the same 2024 recall both times, 89.8% made the same HD-18 choice and 92.9% the same Governor choice. Among these voters, 2 moved from Tomlinson to Allen and 2 moved the other way; 5 July undecideds now back Allen and 1 back Tomlinson.
These results follow the same 127 respondents in both surveys and are unweighted. Select Same voters, two waves in Explore all results for the wave comparisons.
Where respondents are leaning
Each dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its reported municipality. These map responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results. Dot positions are not respondents’ locations.
Candidate
Voting likelihood
Team notes and analysis
The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.
Chaz Nuttycombe on income
Allen's working-class lead holds as he gains with higher earners
In July, Allen's lead was built on working-class voters: he led by 16 points among voters in households earning less than $100,000 a year, while Tomlinson led by 13 among those earning $100,000 to $150,000, and the wealthiest voters were split evenly. Allen still leads with working-class voters, by 10 points (52% to 42%), but his gains since July have come from further up the income ladder. He now leads by 5 points among voters earning $100,000 to $150,000 and by 14 points (56% to 42%) among those earning more than $150,000. Those higher-income groups are smaller, so their margins carry more uncertainty, but the direction is clear: Tomlinson no longer has an income bracket she can count on.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-18 poll briefing, PDF page 9.
Chaz Nuttycombe on voter propensity
Low-propensity voters are still Allen's base
Allen's coalition still leans on the voters who show up least often. Among voters who cast a ballot in zero or one of the last four general elections, Allen leads 75% to 19%, a wider margin than the 31 points he had with them in July. Among the most reliable voters, those who turned out in all four of the last four general elections and make up 60% of the electorate, Allen holds a narrower 49% to 45% lead, down slightly from a 7-point edge in July. The middle of the electorate has tightened most: Tomlinson led voters who cast a ballot in two or three of the last four elections by 16 points in July, and now leads them by just 4. Allen is ahead with every turnout group except that middle tier, but his lead depends on turning out irregular voters in November.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-18 poll briefing, PDF page 9.
Chaz Nuttycombe on undecideds
The remaining undecideds are more Democratic, but less anti-Trump
The undecided pool in the State House race has shrunk from 7% of likely voters in July to 6%, and its makeup has changed sharply. In July, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats among undecided voters 43% to 24%; now 53% of the remaining undecideds are registered Democrats and just 20% are Republicans. They're also no longer as hostile to President Trump as they were: 62% disapprove of the job he's doing, down from 79% in July and roughly in line with the 60% of the district as a whole, while 17% approve, up from 8%. They still lean toward Josh Shapiro, 51% to 11% over Stacy Garrity, but that's a smaller margin than the 59% to 11% he had with July's undecideds, and 38% of them are undecided in the Governor's race too. These are registered Democrats who haven't committed to the top of their own ticket, which makes them Bryan Allen's voters to lose rather than Kathleen Tomlinson's to win.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-18 poll briefing, PDF page 9.
Chaz Nuttycombe on recall
Half of HD-18's recall shift is voters changing their answers
Our 2024 presidential recall in HD-18 is 1.3 points bluer than it was in July: likely voters now recall Kamala Harris winning by 10.6 points, up from 9.3, in a district Donald Trump actually carried by 3.3. About 130 voters took both of our surveys, and if every one of them had given us the same answer they gave in July, our October recall would be Harris +9.9. Voters changing their answers account for 0.7 of the 1.3 points, more than half of the shift. Only six people changed their answer, about 2% of the likely electorate, and none switched directly between Trump and Harris. Four of them moved toward Harris from the edges: two who said they didn't vote and two who declined to answer in July now say they voted for her. The other two, one Harris voter and one Trump voter, now say they backed a third-party candidate. Four of the six now back Bryan Allen.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-18 poll briefing, PDF page 10.
Explore all results
Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.
2024 President: Trump +3.3
Response
Value
Trump (R)
51%
Harris (D)
48%
2022 Governor: Shapiro +20.2
Response
Value
Shapiro (D)
59%
Mastriano (R)
39%
2022 State House: Tomlinson +4.6
Response
Value
Tomlinson (R)
52%
Smith (D)
48%
2024 State House: Tomlinson +11.3
Response
Value
Tomlinson (R)
56%
Patel (D)
44%
Party registration
Response
Value
Change since July 31-August 3, 2026
Democratic
46.1%
0 points
Republican
44.5%
+0.1 points
No Party / Other
9.4%
-0.1 points
Ideology groups
Response
Value
Change since July 31-August 3, 2026
Progressive (7-10)
30%
-2 points
Moderate (4-6)
27%
-6 points
Conservative (0-3)
31%
+4 points
Skipped / Don’t know
12%
+3 points
2024 presidential vote recalled
Response
Value
Trump (R)
39.6%
Harris (D)
50.2%
Third party
4.3%
Did not vote / No response
5.9%
Age
Response
Value
18-29
8%
30-44
17%
45-64
33%
65 or older
42%
Education
Response
Value
Less than bachelor’s
58%
Bachelor’s or higher
42%
Voting in the last four general elections
Response
Value
4 of 4
60%
3 of 4
16%
2 of 4
9%
1 of 4
11%
0 of 4
4%
HD-18 ballot with leaners
If the election for Pennsylvania State House District 18 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since July 31-August 3, 2026
Bryan Allen (D)
52%
+4 points
Kathleen KC Tomlinson (R)
42%
-2 points
Don’t know
6%
-1 point
HD-18 initial ballot
If the election for Pennsylvania State House District 18 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since July 31-August 3, 2026
Bryan Allen (D)
52%
+4 points
Kathleen KC Tomlinson (R)
42%
-2 points
Don’t know
7%
-2 points
Governor ballot with leaners
If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since July 31-August 3, 2026
Josh Shapiro (D)
61%
-1 point
Stacy Garrity (R)
34%
+2 points
Don’t know
5%
-1 point
Governor initial ballot
If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since July 31-August 3, 2026
Josh Shapiro (D)
61%
0 points
Stacy Garrity (R)
33%
+3 points
Don’t know
6%
-4 points
President Trump job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Change since July 31-August 3, 2026
Approve
37%
+2 points
Disapprove
60%
-3 points
Don’t know
3%
+1 point
President Trump job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Change since July 31-August 3, 2026
Strongly approve
24%
+2 points
Somewhat approve
13%
0 points
Somewhat disapprove
5%
-3 points
Strongly disapprove
55%
-1 point
Don’t know
3%
+1 point
Governor Shapiro job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Change since July 31-August 3, 2026
Approve
65%
0 points
Disapprove
29%
+1 point
Don’t know
6%
-1 point
Governor Shapiro job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Change since July 31-August 3, 2026
Strongly approve
43%
+3 points
Somewhat approve
22%
-3 points
Somewhat disapprove
12%
-2 points
Strongly disapprove
16%
+2 points
Don’t know
6%
-1 point
2024 presidential recall among repeat respondents
The same 127 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
July / August
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since July / August
Harris (D)
54.3%
56.7%
69
72
+2.4 points
Trump (R)
36.2%
35.4%
46
45
-0.8 points
Third party
1.6%
3.1%
2
4
+1.6 points
No vote / No answer
7.9%
4.7%
10
6
-3.1 points
HD-18 ballot among repeat respondents
The same 127 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
July / August
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since July / August
Allen (D)
52.0%
55.1%
66
70
+3.1 points
Tomlinson (R)
41.7%
40.9%
53
52
-0.8 points
Undecided
6.3%
3.9%
8
5
-2.4 points
Governor ballot among repeat respondents
The same 127 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
July / August
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since July / August
Shapiro (D)
61.4%
64.6%
78
82
+3.1 points
Garrity (R)
34.6%
33.9%
44
43
-0.8 points
Undecided
3.9%
1.6%
5
2
-2.4 points
Voting likelihood among repeat respondents
The same 127 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
July / August
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since July / August
Already voted
Not labeled in PDF
16.5%
Not labeled in PDF
21
Not labeled
Definitely voting
96.1%
81.1%
122
103
-15 points
Probably voting
3.1%
2.4%
4
3
-0.8 points
Unlikely to vote
0.8%
Not labeled in PDF
1
Not labeled in PDF
Not labeled
Ideology by voter group
Ideology is respondents' self-placement on a 0-10 scale (10 = most progressive, 0 = far right). Detailed shares are of all respondents; 12.3% skipped the question. Group averages are weighted and computed among those who placed themselves (overall mean 5.2).
Response
Value
Allen voters (D)
7.2
Shapiro voters (D)
6.8
All voters
5.2
Undecided House voters
5.1
Tomlinson voters (R)
2.6
Garrity voters (R)
2.2
Detailed ideological self-placement
Response
Value
10. Democratic Socialist
12%
9. Extremely Progressive/Liberal
3%
8. Very Progressive/Liberal
7%
7. Progressive/Liberal
8%
6. Center-left
8%
5. Moderate / Centrist
11%
4. Center-right
8%
3. Conservative
12%
2. Very Conservative
7%
1. Extremely Conservative
7%
0. Far Right
4%
Skipped / Don’t know
12%
Regional shares of the weighted sample
Response
Value
Bensalem Twp
98.0%
Hulmeville Boro
2.0%
District regions
The map shows the surveyed district’s boundaries and weighting regions. Percentages are shares of the weighted likely-voter sample.
Response
Value
Bensalem Twp
98%
Hulmeville Boro
2%
How the survey was conducted
State Navigate surveyed 328 likely voters (372 respondents) in Pennsylvania's 18th State House of Representatives District from October 9-11, 2026, including voters who had already cast a ballot. This is a follow-up to our July 31-August 3, 2026 poll: 127 respondents took both surveys, matched by ID. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by i360 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and region to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 5.4% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.
