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Cuevas narrowly leads Day in Pennsylvania HD-187

State Navigate’s October 10-14 survey finds Rachel Cuevas (D) at 50% and Gary Day (R) at 45% after leaner follow-up, with 4% undecided. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot among these same district voters.

Election date
November 3, 2026
Field dates
October 10-14, 2026
Sample
373 likely voters
Margin of error
+/- 5.1 points

Cuevas leads 50% to 45%

Rachel Cuevas (D) leads Gary Day (R) after leaner follow-up, with 4% undecided. The initial ballot is shown alongside the follow-up.

ResponseInitial ballotWith leaners
Rachel Cuevas (D)49%50%
Gary Day (R)44%45%
Don’t know7%4%

Shapiro leads the governor ballot, 57% to 40%

Josh Shapiro (D) leads Stacy Garrity (R) among these district voters after leaner follow-up, with 3% undecided. The chart compares the initial ballot with the leaner follow-up.

ResponseInitial ballotWith leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)56%57%
Stacy Garrity (R)39%40%
Don’t know5%3%

59% disapprove of Trump’s performance

Donald Trump receives 39% approval and 59% disapproval. The detailed responses distinguish strong and softer opinions; the separately rounded topline is available in Explore all results.

ResponseValueChange since September 18-20, 2026
Strongly approve27%0 points
Somewhat approve12%+3 points
Somewhat disapprove4%-4 points
Strongly disapprove55%+1 point
Don’t know2%0 points

Shapiro receives 56% job approval

Josh Shapiro receives 56% approval, compared with 36% disapproval. Strongly and somewhat held views are shown separately, preserving the report’s rounded detail.

ResponseValueChange since September 18-20, 2026
Strongly approve31%+1 point
Somewhat approve25%-1 point
Somewhat disapprove14%0 points
Strongly disapprove22%-1 point
Don’t know8%+1 point

Early voting

2% of likely voters say they have already voted (6 respondents), almost all by mail. Early voters back Cuevas 81% to 0% over Day; voters who have not yet cast a ballot split 50% to 46%. Early votes are counted in the toplines, using the choice each early voter reported.

Same voters, two waves

93.7% gave the same 2024 recall both times, 95.3% made the same HD-187 choice and 95.3% the same Governor choice. Among these voters, 0 moved from Day to Cuevas and 2 moved the other way; 1 September undecideds now back Cuevas and 3 back Day.

These results follow the same 127 respondents in both surveys and are unweighted. Select Same voters, two waves in Explore all results for the wave comparisons.

Where respondents are leaning

Each dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its reported municipality. These map responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results. Dot positions are not respondents’ locations.

HD-187 response mapEach dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its municipality.Upper Macungie townshipWashington townshipLynn townshipMacungie boroughWeisenberg townshipAlburtis boroughHeidelberg townshipLower Macungie township

Team notes and analysis

The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.

Chaz Nuttycombe on ticket splitting

Cuevas is consolidating the Shapiro vote

In September, HD-187 had the largest undecided pool of the three House districts we polled inside SD-16, at 9% of likely voters, and Rachel Cuevas led Gary Day by 3 points, 47% to 44%. That pool has shrunk to 4%, and Cuevas now leads 50% to 45%. Most of the movement came from Josh Shapiro voters settling on her: Cuevas now wins 89% of them, up from 83% in September, while Day's share has slipped from 10% to 8%. Day is still running ahead of Stacy Garrity, but by less: he ran 8 points ahead of her in September (44% to 36%) and runs 5 points ahead now (45% to 40%). Shapiro leads the district 57% to 40%, and the closer Cuevas gets to his share, the harder it is for Day to win.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-187 poll briefing, PDF page 9.

Explore all results

Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.

2024 President: Trump +9.4

ResponseValue
Trump (R)54%
Harris (D)45%

2022 Governor: Shapiro +6.4

ResponseValue
Shapiro (D)52%
Mastriano (R)46%

2022 U.S. Senate: Oz +3.7

ResponseValue
Oz (R)50%
Fetterman (D)47%

2024 State House: Day +10.7

ResponseValue
Day (R)55%
Rafes (D)45%

Party registration

ResponseValueChange since September 18-20, 2026
Democratic38.3%-1.7 points
Republican48.8%+1.2 points
No Party / Other13.0%+0.5 points

Ideology groups

ResponseValueChange since September 18-20, 2026
Progressive (7-10)28%+3 points
Moderate (4-6)32%-3 points
Conservative (0-3)36%+2 points
Skipped / Don’t know3%-3 points

2024 presidential vote recalled

ResponseValue
Trump (R)45.0%
Harris (D)46.4%
Third party2.9%
Did not vote / No response5.6%

Age

ResponseValue
18-299%
30-4417%
45-6436%
65 or older38%

Education

ResponseValue
Less than bachelor’s41%
Bachelor’s or higher59%

Voting in the last four general elections

ResponseValue
4 of 466%
3 of 414%
2 of 47%
1 of 46%
0 of 47%

HD-187 ballot with leaners

If the election for Pennsylvania State House District 187 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.

ResponseValueChange since September 18-20, 2026
Rachel Cuevas (D)50%+3 points
Gary Day (R)45%+1 point
Don’t know4%-5 points

HD-187 initial ballot

If the election for Pennsylvania State House District 187 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.

ResponseValueChange since September 18-20, 2026
Rachel Cuevas (D)49%+3 points
Gary Day (R)44%+1 point
Don’t know7%-4 points

Governor ballot with leaners

If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.

ResponseValueChange since September 18-20, 2026
Josh Shapiro (D)57%+1 point
Stacy Garrity (R)40%+4 points
Don’t know3%-5 points

Governor initial ballot

If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.

ResponseValueChange since September 18-20, 2026
Josh Shapiro (D)56%+2 points
Stacy Garrity (R)39%+4 points
Don’t know5%-6 points

President Trump job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

ResponseValueChange since September 18-20, 2026
Approve39%+3 points
Disapprove59%-3 points
Don’t know2%0 points

President Trump job approval in detail

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

ResponseValueChange since September 18-20, 2026
Strongly approve27%0 points
Somewhat approve12%+3 points
Somewhat disapprove4%-4 points
Strongly disapprove55%+1 point
Don’t know2%0 points

Governor Shapiro job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?

ResponseValueChange since September 18-20, 2026
Approve56%0 points
Disapprove36%-1 point
Don’t know8%+1 point

Governor Shapiro job approval in detail

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?

ResponseValueChange since September 18-20, 2026
Strongly approve31%+1 point
Somewhat approve25%-1 point
Somewhat disapprove14%0 points
Strongly disapprove22%-1 point
Don’t know8%+1 point

2024 presidential recall among repeat respondents

The same 127 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.

ResponseSeptemberOctoberEarlier respondentsOctober respondentsChange since September
Harris (D)47.2%47.2%60600 points
Trump (R)44.9%47.2%5760+2.4 points
Third party4.7%3.1%64-1.6 points
No vote / No answer3.1%2.4%43-0.8 points

HD-187 ballot among repeat respondents

The same 127 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.

ResponseSeptemberOctoberEarlier respondentsOctober respondentsChange since September
Cuevas (D)52.0%51.2%6665-0.8 points
Day (R)43.3%47.2%5560+3.9 points
Undecided4.7%1.6%62-3.1 points

Governor ballot among repeat respondents

The same 127 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.

ResponseSeptemberOctoberEarlier respondentsOctober respondentsChange since September
Shapiro (D)57.5%56.7%7372-0.8 points
Garrity (R)35.4%40.2%4551+4.7 points
Undecided7.1%3.1%94-3.9 points

Voting likelihood among repeat respondents

The same 127 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.

ResponseSeptemberOctoberEarlier respondentsOctober respondentsChange since September
Already votedNot labeled in PDFNot labeled in PDFNot labeled in PDFNot labeled in PDFNot labeled
Definitely voting92.1%93.7%117119+1.6 points
Probably voting6.3%4.7%86-1.6 points
Unlikely to vote1.0%1.6%220 points

Ideology by voter group

Ideology is respondents' self-placement on a 0-10 scale (10 = most progressive, 0 = far right). Detailed shares are of all respondents; 3.5% skipped the question. Group averages are weighted and computed among those who placed themselves (overall mean 4.8).

ResponseValue
Cuevas voters (D)6.9
Shapiro voters (D)6.5
All voters4.8
Undecided House voters3.8
Day voters (R)2.6
Garrity voters (R)2.5

Detailed ideological self-placement

ResponseValue
10. Democratic Socialist5%
9. Extremely Progressive/Liberal5%
8. Very Progressive/Liberal7%
7. Progressive/Liberal11%
6. Center-left10%
5. Moderate / Centrist13%
4. Center-right10%
3. Conservative15%
2. Very Conservative10%
1. Extremely Conservative6%
0. Far Right5%
Skipped / Don’t know3%

Regional shares of the weighted sample

ResponseValue
LOWER MACUNGIE TWP49.8%
UPPER MACUNGIE TWP10.0%
WASHINGTON TWP (LEHIGH)9.9%
WEISENBERG TWP9.4%
LYNN TWP7.0%
HEIDELBERG TWP (LEHIGH)5.5%
MACUNGIE BORO5.0%
ALBURTIS BORO3.5%

District regions

The map shows the surveyed district’s boundaries and weighting regions. Percentages are shares of the weighted likely-voter sample.

District regionsLOWER MACUNGIE TWP - 49.8% of weighted sampleLOWER MACUNGIE TWP 49.8%UPPER MACUNGIE TWP - 10.0% of weighted sampleUPPER MACUNGIE TWP 10.0%WASHINGTON TWP (LEHIGH) - 9.9% of weighted sampleWASHINGTON TWP (LEHIGH) 9.9%WEISENBERG TWP - 9.4% of weighted sampleWEISENBERG TWP 9.4%LYNN TWP - 7.0% of weighted sampleLYNN TWP 7.0%HEIDELBERG TWP (LEHIGH) - 5.5% of weighted sampleHEIDELBERG TWP (LEHIGH) 5.5%MACUNGIE BORO - 5.0% of weighted sampleMACUNGIE BORO 5.0%ALBURTIS BORO - 3.5% of weighted sampleALBURTIS BORO 3.5%
ResponseValue
LOWER MACUNGIE TWP49.8%
UPPER MACUNGIE TWP10%
WASHINGTON TWP (LEHIGH)9.9%
WEISENBERG TWP9.4%
LYNN TWP7%
HEIDELBERG TWP (LEHIGH)5.5%
MACUNGIE BORO5%
ALBURTIS BORO3.5%

How the survey was conducted

State Navigate surveyed 373 likely voters (438 respondents) in Pennsylvania's 187th State House of Representatives District from October 10-14, 2026, including voters who had already cast a ballot. This is a follow-up to our September 18-20, 2026 poll: 127 respondents took both surveys, matched by ID. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and region to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 5.1% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.

Download the complete poll briefing (PDF)