Cuevas narrowly leads Day in Pennsylvania’s 187th House District

State Navigate’s September 18-20 survey finds Rachel Cuevas at 47%, Gary Day at 44%, and 9% undecided after leaner follow-up. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot 56%-36% among these same district voters.

Election date: November 3, 2026
Field dates: September 18-20, 2026
Sample: 307 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 5.6 points

Cuevas has a 3-point edge after leaners are included

Rachel Cuevas receives 47%, Gary Day receives 44%, with 9% undecided. Before the follow-up, Cuevas received 46%, Day received 43%, with 11% undecided. These paired results do not identify individual voter movement.

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State House ballot with leaners
Response	Initial ballot	With leaners
Rachel Cuevas (D)	46%	47%
Gary Day (R)	43%	44%
Don’t know	11%	9%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-187 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 307 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 187. Includes the leaner follow-up.

Where respondents are leaning

367 unweighted responses from the supplied map export. These responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results above. Each dot represents one response, placed within its municipality rather than at a respondent’s address.

Drag to pan or pinch with two fingers to zoom. With the map focused, use + and - to zoom and 0 to reset. Hover over a dot for its response or focus a municipality for its counts. Percentages reflect the selected certainty groups. Dot positions are illustrative, not precise respondent locations.

Shapiro leads by 20 points in the same district

Josh Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity 56%-36% with leaners included. Before the follow-up, the ballot stood at 54%-35%. These results describe House District 187 voters, not the statewide electorate.

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Governor ballot with leaners
Response	Initial ballot	With leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)	54%	56%
Stacy Garrity (R)	35%	36%
Don’t know	11%	8%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-187 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 307 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 187. Includes the leaner follow-up. These results describe this district’s electorate, not statewide opinion.

62% of district voters disapprove of Trump

Donald Trump’s topline job approval is 36%, with 62% disapproval and 2% who do not know. Detailed responses show 27% strongly approve, 9% somewhat approve, 8% somewhat disapprove, and 54% strongly disapprove.

View chart values

President Trump job approval - detailed
Response	Value
Strongly approve	27%
Somewhat approve	9%
Somewhat disapprove	8%
Strongly disapprove	54%
Don’t know	2%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-187 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 307 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 187. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded.

Shapiro’s approval stands at 56%

Josh Shapiro’s topline job approval is 56%, with 37% disapproval and 7% who do not know. Detailed responses show 30% strongly approve, 26% somewhat approve, 14% somewhat disapprove, and 23% strongly disapprove.

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Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Response	Value
Strongly approve	30%
Somewhat approve	26%
Somewhat disapprove	14%
Strongly disapprove	23%
Don’t know	7%

Team notes and analysis

The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.

Mary Radcliffe on undecided voters

The undecideds lean toward Cuevas.

9% of voters in the survey say they are undecided on the HD-187 race, a relatively small sample size, though a bit larger than in the other districts we surveyed. But there may be some good news for Cuevas in this group: 68% say they disapprove of Trump, and they break for Shapiro in the gubernatorial race by 36 points (though over half are undecided in that race as well). Given the small sample size, though, these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but there's other indications that undecideds might ultimately lean a bit more Democratic. For example, 7% of Shapiro voters are undecided in the House race, compared with just 1% of Garrity voters.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-187 poll briefing - PDF page 8.

Mary Radcliffe on crossover voting

Crossover voting only goes one way in the 187th.

As a purple state, crossover voting isn't new in Pennsylvania, and we can expect to see some of that across the state, as Shapiro continues to overperform downballot candidates. However, it appears that at least in the 187th House district, crossover voting only goes one way: 0% of Garrity voters plan to vote for Cuevas in the House race, while 10% of Shapiro voters say they'll be voting for Day.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-187 poll briefing - PDF page 8.

Mary Radcliffe on voter propensity

The most reliable voters lean Republican.

Among voters who have voted in all 4 of the last 4 general elections, Day leads Cuevas 50% to 43%. Among the rest of the electorate, though, Cuevas has a much larger 56% to 30% lead over Day. Even though 4-out-of-4 voters make up nearly 70% of the likely electorate, Cuevas' significant lead among less frequent voters is driving her overall lead. We see a similar split between the most frequent voters and everyone else in the gubernatorial race, though Shapiro's relative strength has him leading both groups: he leads 4-out-of-4 voters 50% to 43%, but leads among everyone else by an enormous 68% to 22%, a 46-point advantage over Garrity.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-187 poll briefing - PDF page 8.

Explore all results

Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.

2024 presidential election

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2024 presidential election
Response	Value
Trump (R)	54%
Harris (D)	45%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-187 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 187, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Trump +9.4. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 99%.

2022 governor election

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2022 governor election
Response	Value
Shapiro (D)	52%
Mastriano (R)	46%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-187 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 187, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Shapiro +6.4. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 98%.

2022 U.S. Senate election

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2022 U.S. Senate election
Response	Value
Oz (R)	50%
Fetterman (D)	47%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-187 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 187, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Oz +3.7. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 97%.

2024 State House election

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2024 State House election
Response	Value
Day (R)	55%
Rafes (D)	45%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-187 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 187, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Day +10.7. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages.