Chambers narrowly leads Miller in Pennsylvania HD-41
State Navigate’s October 9-13 survey finds Brad Chambers (D) at 50% and Brett R. Miller (R) at 47% after leaner follow-up, with 3% undecided. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot among these same district voters.
Election date
November 3, 2026
Field dates
October 9-13, 2026
Sample
450 likely voters
Margin of error
+/- 4.6 points
Chambers leads 50% to 47%
Brad Chambers (D) leads Brett R. Miller (R) after leaner follow-up, with 3% undecided. The initial ballot is shown alongside the follow-up.
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Brad Chambers (D)
49%
50%
Brett R. Miller (R)
47%
47%
Don’t know
4%
3%
Shapiro leads the governor ballot, 58% to 39%
Josh Shapiro (D) leads Stacy Garrity (R) among these district voters after leaner follow-up, with 3% undecided. The chart compares the initial ballot with the leaner follow-up.
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)
56%
58%
Stacy Garrity (R)
38%
39%
Don’t know
6%
3%
59% disapprove of Trump’s performance
Donald Trump receives 40% approval and 59% disapproval. The detailed responses distinguish strong and softer opinions; the separately rounded topline is available in Explore all results.
Response
Value
Change since September 11-13, 2026
Strongly approve
29%
+4 points
Somewhat approve
11%
-3 points
Somewhat disapprove
5%
-2 points
Strongly disapprove
54%
+1 point
Don’t know
1%
-1 point
Shapiro receives 59% job approval
Josh Shapiro receives 59% approval, compared with 36% disapproval. Strongly and somewhat held views are shown separately, preserving the report’s rounded detail.
Response
Value
Change since September 11-13, 2026
Strongly approve
37%
+3 points
Somewhat approve
22%
-4 points
Somewhat disapprove
15%
+2 points
Strongly disapprove
21%
-2 points
Don’t know
5%
+1 point
Early voting
15% of likely voters say they have already voted (69 respondents), almost all by mail. Early voters back Chambers 76% to 21% over Miller; voters who have not yet cast a ballot split 45% to 51%. Early votes are counted in the toplines, using the choice each early voter reported.
Same voters, two waves
96.4% gave the same 2024 recall both times, 94.4% made the same HD-41 choice and 95.9% the same Governor choice. Among these voters, 1 moved from Miller to Chambers and 2 moved the other way; 4 September undecideds now back Chambers and 1 back Miller.
These results follow the same 195 respondents in both surveys and are unweighted. Select Same voters, two waves in Explore all results for the wave comparisons.
Where respondents are leaning
Each dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its reported municipality. These map responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results. Dot positions are not respondents’ locations.
Candidate
Voting likelihood
Team notes and analysis
The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.
Chaz Nuttycombe on municipalities
The map makes more sense now
In September, the municipal results in HD-41 were a bit of a puzzle: Brett Miller led in East Hempfield Township, the district's largest municipality, while Brad Chambers led by 11 points in West Hempfield Township, a result Michael Foley called perplexing. A month later, the map lines up much more closely with the partisan lean of each community. Chambers now leads in East Hempfield 52% to 45%, where Josh Shapiro is up 26 points, and his West Hempfield lead has narrowed to 50% to 46%, where Shapiro leads by 19. Miller still leads comfortably in Manor Township, 54% to 43%, where the Governor's race is close, and he's widened his lead in Columbia Borough to 52% to 42%, where Shapiro and Stacy Garrity are essentially tied. That Columbia result stands out, since it's Chambers' home turf. The smaller municipalities have small samples, so their margins carry more uncertainty, but the overall pattern is clearer: Chambers' gains since September came in East Hempfield, home to nearly half the district's voters.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing, PDF page 9.
Chaz Nuttycombe on ticket splitting
Miller's crossover appeal is fading
Brett Miller has relied on ticket-splitters to stay competitive in a district Josh Shapiro is carrying by 19 points, but that cushion is shrinking. In September, Miller ran 9 points ahead of Stacy Garrity; he now runs 8 points ahead of her, 47% to 39%. He's winning 13% of Shapiro voters, down from 14% in September, while Brad Chambers' share of Shapiro voters has grown from 81% to 84%. Meanwhile, the few Garrity voters crossing over to Chambers doubled, from 1% to 2%. The gap between Shapiro and Chambers has narrowed from 10 points to 8 as Chambers consolidates the top of the Democratic ticket's coalition. Miller's crossover numbers are still meaningful, but they're well short of what Joe Hogan is pulling in Bucks County's HD-142, where 17% of Shapiro voters back the Republican incumbent.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing, PDF page 9.
Chaz Nuttycombe on recall
A third of HD-41's bluer recall comes from Trump voters who stopped saying so
Our 2024 presidential recall in HD-41 is 5.7 points bluer than it was in September: likely voters now recall Kamala Harris winning by 8.3 points, up from 2.6, in a district Donald Trump actually carried by 4.9. About 200 voters took both of our surveys, and if every one of them had given us the same answer they gave in September, our October recall would be Harris +6.5. Voters changing their answers account for 1.8 of the 5.7 points, or about a third of the shift; the rest comes from who answered. The seven people who changed their answer are under 2% of the likely electorate, but four of them told us in September that they voted for Trump: one now says Harris, one says a third-party candidate, and two decline to answer. Four of the seven are registered Republicans, and they split evenly in the State House race, three for Brad Chambers and three for Brett Miller, with one undecided.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing, PDF page 9.
Explore all results
Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.
2024 President: Trump +4.9
Response
Value
Trump (R)
52%
Harris (D)
47%
2022 Governor: Shapiro +13.2
Response
Value
Shapiro (D)
56%
Mastriano (R)
43%
2022 U.S. Senate: Oz +1.6
Response
Value
Oz (R)
50%
Fetterman (D)
48%
2024 State House: Miller +11.3
Response
Value
Miller (R)
56%
Chambers (D)
44%
Party registration
Response
Value
Change since September 11-13, 2026
Democratic
38.2%
-1.2 points
Republican
49.9%
+0.9 points
No Party / Other
11.9%
+0.2 points
Ideology groups
Response
Value
Change since September 11-13, 2026
Progressive (7-10)
28%
-1 point
Moderate (4-6)
29%
-2 points
Conservative (0-3)
38%
+4 points
Skipped / Don’t know
5%
-1 point
2024 presidential vote recalled
Response
Value
Trump (R)
42.0%
Harris (D)
50.3%
Third party
2.7%
Did not vote / No response
5.0%
Age
Response
Value
18-29
6%
30-44
19%
45-64
32%
65 or older
42%
Education
Response
Value
Less than bachelor’s
46%
Bachelor’s or higher
54%
Voting in the last four general elections
Response
Value
4 of 4
65%
3 of 4
14%
2 of 4
10%
1 of 4
7%
0 of 4
4%
HD-41 ballot with leaners
If the election for Pennsylvania State House District 41 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since September 11-13, 2026
Brad Chambers (D)
50%
+3 points
Brett R. Miller (R)
47%
+1 point
Don’t know
3%
-4 points
HD-41 initial ballot
If the election for Pennsylvania State House District 41 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since September 11-13, 2026
Brad Chambers (D)
49%
+3 points
Brett R. Miller (R)
47%
+1 point
Don’t know
4%
-4 points
Governor ballot with leaners
If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since September 11-13, 2026
Josh Shapiro (D)
58%
+1 point
Stacy Garrity (R)
39%
+2 points
Don’t know
3%
-3 points
Governor initial ballot
If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.
Response
Value
Change since September 11-13, 2026
Josh Shapiro (D)
56%
+1 point
Stacy Garrity (R)
38%
+2 points
Don’t know
6%
-3 points
President Trump job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Change since September 11-13, 2026
Approve
40%
+2 points
Disapprove
59%
-1 point
Don’t know
1%
-1 point
President Trump job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Change since September 11-13, 2026
Strongly approve
29%
+4 points
Somewhat approve
11%
-3 points
Somewhat disapprove
5%
-2 points
Strongly disapprove
54%
+1 point
Don’t know
1%
-1 point
Governor Shapiro job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Change since September 11-13, 2026
Approve
59%
-1 point
Disapprove
36%
0 points
Don’t know
5%
+1 point
Governor Shapiro job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Change since September 11-13, 2026
Strongly approve
37%
+3 points
Somewhat approve
22%
-4 points
Somewhat disapprove
15%
+2 points
Strongly disapprove
21%
-2 points
Don’t know
5%
+1 point
2024 presidential recall among repeat respondents
The same 195 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
September
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since September
Harris (D)
54.4%
55.4%
106
108
+1 point
Trump (R)
40.0%
37.9%
78
74
-2.1 points
Third party
2.6%
3.1%
5
6
+0.5 points
No vote / No answer
3.1%
3.6%
6
7
+0.5 points
HD-41 ballot among repeat respondents
The same 195 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
September
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since September
Chambers (D)
51.8%
52.8%
101
103
+1 point
Miller (R)
44.1%
44.1%
86
86
0 points
Undecided
4.1%
3.1%
8
6
-1 point
Governor ballot among repeat respondents
The same 195 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
September
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since September
Shapiro (D)
61.0%
60.0%
119
117
-1 point
Garrity (R)
34.4%
36.9%
67
72
+2.6 points
Undecided
4.6%
3.1%
9
6
-1.5 points
Voting likelihood among repeat respondents
The same 195 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.
Response
September
October
Earlier respondents
October respondents
Change since September
Already voted
Not labeled in PDF
12.3%
Not labeled in PDF
24
Not labeled
Definitely voting
91.8%
83.6%
179
163
-8.2 points
Probably voting
7.2%
3.6%
14
7
-3.6 points
Unlikely to vote
1.0%
0.5%
2
1
-0.5 points
Ideology by voter group
Ideology is respondents' self-placement on a 0-10 scale (10 = most progressive, 0 = far right). Detailed shares are of all respondents; 4.8% skipped the question. Group averages are weighted and computed among those who placed themselves (overall mean 4.8).
Response
Value
Chambers voters (D)
6.9
Shapiro voters (D)
6.5
Undecided House voters
5.1
All voters
4.8
Miller voters (R)
2.6
Garrity voters (R)
2.2
Detailed ideological self-placement
Response
Value
10. Democratic Socialist
7%
9. Extremely Progressive/Liberal
3%
8. Very Progressive/Liberal
7%
7. Progressive/Liberal
11%
6. Center-left
10%
5. Moderate / Centrist
14%
4. Center-right
6%
3. Conservative
16%
2. Very Conservative
11%
1. Extremely Conservative
6%
0. Far Right
5%
Skipped / Don’t know
5%
Regional shares of the weighted sample
Response
Value
Hempfield East Twp
46.1%
Hempfield West Twp
26.1%
Columbia Boro
12.5%
Manor Twp (Lancaster)
10.7%
Mountville Boro
4.6%
District regions
The map shows the surveyed district’s boundaries and weighting regions. Percentages are shares of the weighted likely-voter sample.
Response
Value
Hempfield East Twp
46.1%
Hempfield West Twp
26.1%
Columbia Boro
12.5%
Manor Twp (Lancaster)
10.7%
Mountville Boro
4.6%
How the survey was conducted
State Navigate surveyed 450 likely voters (512 respondents) in Pennsylvania's 41st State House of Representatives District from October 9-13, 2026, including voters who had already cast a ballot. This is a follow-up to our September 11-13, 2026 poll: 195 respondents took both surveys, matched by ID. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and region to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 4.6% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.
