Chambers and Miller are nearly even in Pennsylvania’s 41st House District

State Navigate’s September 11-13 survey finds Brad Chambers at 47%, Brett R. Miller at 46%, and 7% undecided after leaner follow-up. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot 57%-37% among these same district voters.

Election date: November 3, 2026
Field dates: September 11-13, 2026
Sample: 400 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 4.9 points

Chambers has a one-point edge after leaners are included

Democrat Brad Chambers receives 47% to Republican incumbent Brett R. Miller’s 46%, with 7% undecided. The initial ballot was tied at 46%-46%. The paired results show the change after leaner follow-up; they do not identify individual voter movement.

View chart values

State House ballot with leaners
Response	Initial ballot	With leaners
Brad Chambers (D)	46%	47%
Brett R. Miller (R)	46%	46%
Don’t know	8%	7%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 41. Includes the leaner follow-up. The PDF describes the race as tied while printing 47%-46%; these chart values are retained.

Where respondents are leaning

476 unweighted responses from the supplied map export. These responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results above. Each dot represents one response, placed within its municipality rather than at a respondent’s address.

Drag to pan or pinch with two fingers to zoom. With the map focused, use + and - to zoom and 0 to reset. Hover over a dot for its response or focus a municipality for its counts. Percentages reflect the selected certainty groups. Dot positions are illustrative, not precise respondent locations.

Shapiro leads by twenty points in the same district

Josh Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity 57%-37% with leaners included. Before the follow-up, the governor ballot stood at 55%-36%. These are results among likely voters in House District 41, not a statewide governor poll.

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Governor ballot with leaners
Response	Initial ballot	With leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)	55%	57%
Stacy Garrity (R)	36%	37%
Don’t know	9%	6%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 41. Includes the leaner follow-up. Governor results describe this district’s electorate, not statewide opinion.

Six in ten district voters disapprove of Trump

Donald Trump’s topline job approval stands at 38%, while 60% disapprove and 2% do not know. Detailed responses show 25% strongly approve, 14% somewhat approve, 7% somewhat disapprove, and 53% strongly disapprove.

View chart values

President Trump job approval - detailed
Response	Value
Strongly approve	25%
Somewhat approve	14%
Somewhat disapprove	7%
Strongly disapprove	53%
Don’t know	2%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania House District 41. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded; original values are retained. Published shares total 101%.

Shapiro’s approval reaches 60%

Josh Shapiro’s topline approval is 60%, with 36% disapproval and 4% who do not know. Detailed responses show 34% strongly approve, 26% somewhat approve, 13% somewhat disapprove, and 23% strongly disapprove.

View chart values

Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Response	Value
Strongly approve	34%
Somewhat approve	26%
Somewhat disapprove	13%
Strongly disapprove	23%
Don’t know	4%

Team notes and analysis

The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.

Chaz Nuttycombe on executive approvals

A Tale of Two Approvals

Voters in HD-41 strongly dislike Trump (38% approve / 60% disapprove) and strongly like Shapiro (60% / 36%). Fully half the district disapproves of Trump and approves of Shapiro, and they break for Chambers 85-9. The 9% who approve of both are Miller's, at 86-0. As in the neighboring Senate races, the double-haters lean Republican: the 7% who disapprove of both men favor Miller 59-21 and Garrity 46-25. Chambers is winning the anti-Trump, pro-Shapiro majority; Miller is surviving on crossover Shapiro voters and the double-haters.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing - PDF page 8.

Mary Radcliffe on vote method

The Blue Mirage is alive and well in Lancaster County

While there's been some evidence that vote method is becoming less politically polarized nationally, that doesn't appear to be the case in HD-41. Respondents that plan to vote by mail, about a quarter of the sample, break more than 2-to-1 in favor of Chambers, while the nearly three quarters of respondents that plan to vote on election day favor Miller by 17 percentage points. This will matter on Election Day, as early returns typically comprise more mail ballots, so the results should shift over the course of the evening.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing - PDF page 8.

Mary Radcliffe on vote history

Chambers' support is driven by less reliable voters

Among voters who have participated in at least 3 of the last 4 elections, Miller leads Chambers by 3 percentage points, 49 to 46. But less frequent voters are helping keep this race close: among voters who have participated in 2 or fewer of the last 4 elections, Chambers is ahead by 12 percentage points, 49 to 37. While this group is only a fifth of the electorate, their stronger support for Chambers is helping keep this race a toss-up rather than tilting Republican.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing - PDF page 8.

Michael Foley on area codes

We called phones from different area codes: it matters much in HD-41

We know the area codes of the phones we dialed. Unlike in Northeast Pennsylvania's SD-40, HD-41 likely voters with local Lancaster-area 717 and 223 area codes were much more likely to vote for Republican candidate Brett Miller (52%) than transplants who kept their old other area codes (23%).

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing - PDF page 8.

Michael Foley on municipalities

Municipality matters - maybe

Republican Brett Miller leads in East Hempfield Township, Manor Township and Columbia Boro. Democrat Brad Chambers leads in West Hempfield Township and Mountville Boro. Chambers' West Hempfield Township lead is a bit perplexing: West Hempfield is generally more Republican-leaning than East Hempfield, and Chambers hails from Columbia Boro, not East Hempfield. This disparity could simply be due to high margins of error associated with small subsample sizes (there were only around 100 responses from West Hempfield), but one other possible explanation might be the candidate's positions on data centers. Chambers has been vocal against building data centers, and West Hempfield recently passed a controversial data center ordinance.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing - PDF page 9.

Explore all results

Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.

2024 presidential election

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2024 presidential election
Response	Value
Trump (R)	52%
Harris (D)	47%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 41, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Trump +4.9. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 99%.

2022 governor election

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2022 governor election
Response	Value
Shapiro (D)	56%
Mastriano (R)	43%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 41, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Shapiro +13.2. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 99%.

2022 U.S. Senate election

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2022 U.S. Senate election
Response	Value
Oz (R)	50%
Fetterman (D)	48%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 41, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Oz +1.6. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 98%.

2024 State House election

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2024 State House election
Response	Value
Miller (R)	56%
Chambers (D)	44%

State Navigate - Pennsylvania HD-41 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within House District 41, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Miller +11.3. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages.