Pinsley narrowly leads Coleman in Pennsylvania SD-16

Chaz Nuttycombe on who didn't come back

The voters who didn't return leaned more toward Trump, but Coleman's share barely moves

About 770 of the voters who took our September poll didn't take this one, so we ran the same test we ran in SD-6 and SD-36: we took their September answers and weighted them the same way we weighted our October poll, including our likely-voter model. By party, they look a lot like our September sample as a whole: with leaners, they identify as Republicans by 2.3 points, compared to 2.6 for the full September sample. But they're warmer to President Trump. They recall voting for him by 2 points, while the full September sample recalled voting for Kamala Harris by 2, and his net approval with this group is -15, 4 points better than the -19 he had in September. They were also less committed to voting: before the likely-voter adjustment, 83% said they were definitely voting in September, compared to 87% of the full September sample.

Even so, Jarrett Coleman is at 47% with them, a point above the 46% he had in our September poll and has now in October. What they lack is Pinsley support: Mark Pinsley is at 44% with this group, compared to 47% in September and 49% now, with 9% undecided. Their undecideds also lean a little less toward the Democratic ticket than the undecideds in our full September sample: they back Josh Shapiro 52% to 5% over Stacy Garrity, compared to 57% to 5%, and 59% disapprove of President Trump while 21% approve, compared to 65% and 18%. Losing these voters explains some of Pinsley's gain since September and some of our bluer October recall, but Coleman sits at 46% or 47% no matter who we count.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-16 poll briefing, PDF page 9.

Chaz Nuttycombe on recall

Liar Liar, Pants on Fire: SD-16 edition

Our 2024 presidential recall in SD-16 is 1.1 points bluer than it was in September: likely voters now recall backing Kamala Harris by 2.8 points, up from 1.7, in a district Donald Trump actually carried by 8.9. About 450 voters took both of our surveys, so we can check how much of that shift comes from people changing their story. If every one of them had given us the same answer they gave in September, our October recall would be Harris +2.4, so voters changing their answers account for 0.4 points, or about a third of the shift, a bigger share than in SD-6 or SD-36. Just 18 of the 453 changed their answer, about 1% of the likely electorate, and only one moved directly from Trump to Harris. Most came in from the edges: four who said they didn't vote in 2024 now say they voted for Harris, while five who said they backed a third-party candidate now say Trump. As a group, they recalled voting for Trump by 2 points in September and for Harris by 28 points in October. They don't look like typical Harris voters: 16 of the 18 are men, 10 are registered Republicans, and 14 have voted in all of the last four general elections, including three of the six who told us in September that they didn't vote in 2024. What they share is a dislike of the President. Fourteen of the 18 disapprove of Trump and 14 back Josh Shapiro, yet they're split in the State Senate race, 9 for Mark Pinsley and 7 for Jarrett Coleman, with two undecided. These look like voters who are souring on Trump and rewriting their own history to match, which is a reminder that recall is a noisy measure in a year like this one.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-16 poll briefing, PDF page 10.

Chaz Nuttycombe on ticket splitting

Pinsley is consolidating Shapiro voters

Mark Pinsley has turned a 1-point race into a 3-point lead since September, 49% to 46%, even though Josh Shapiro's own lead in SD-16 has narrowed from 20 points (57% to 37%) to 16 (56% to 40%). The gains are down-ballot. Pinsley now wins 86% of Shapiro voters, up from 82% in September, while Jarrett Coleman's share of them has slipped from 12% to 10%. Coleman still runs well ahead of the top of his ticket, but the gap is closing: he ran 9 points ahead of Stacy Garrity in September (46% to 37%) and runs 6 points ahead of her now (46% to 40%). The biggest swing is among voters registered with neither major party, who backed Pinsley by 19 points in September (53% to 34%) and now back him by 40 (66% to 26%). That group is only about 14% of the likely electorate, but it's where Pinsley has opened up the race.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-16 poll briefing, PDF page 10.

Chaz Nuttycombe on enthusiasm

Young Republicans are still the least likely to show up

In September, Republicans under 45 were the least committed voters in SD-16: 77% of registered Republicans in that age group said they would definitely vote, compared to 93% of registered Democrats. A month later, the gap has narrowed but hasn't closed. Among voters under 45, 96% of registered Democrats have already voted or say they will definitely vote, compared to 87% of registered Republicans, a 9-point gap. By leaned party ID, it's 97% to 85%.

Among voters 45 and older, the gap is just 1 point (98% to 97% by either measure). Younger Republicans are a small slice of the likely electorate, but they're the group most likely to stay home, and that gives Mark Pinsley a built-in turnout edge.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-16 poll briefing, PDF page 11.