Pinsley and Coleman are nearly even in Pennsylvania’s 16th Senate District

Chaz Nuttycombe on young voter enthusiasm gap

Republicans' disaffected voters skew younger, a national trend.

Republicans seem to be dropping off the face of the Earth according to many Republican anecdotes (e.g. lack of party volunteers, smaller crowds at rallies) and the start of early voting data across the country (e.g. Virginia). These stories and analyses of data may seem familiar to anyone who witnessed the 2025 Virginia election, when Republican activists complained of lack of volunteers, Republican candidates drew fewer crowds than four years before, and by Election Day it seemed that most Republicans forgot there was an election. It seems all but inevitable that nationwide, a very favorable environment akin to 2018 for Democrats is expected. But who are these Republicans who are less likely to vote? Besides the obvious answer of low propensity minority voters that swung to Trump in 2024, an underdiscussed group are Republican voters under the age of 45 (Millennials and Zoomers).

When examining the vote likelihood of Democrats and Republicans (both by party registration and party ID) under the age of 45, Democrats have a double-digit advantage amongst the most motivated voters who have a ~90% chance of showing up to vote. When comparing this level of voting likelihood to voters over the age of 45, Democrats have just a 3-4 point advantage.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-16 poll briefing - PDF page 8.