Jones narrowly leads Malone in Pennsylvania SD-36

State Navigate’s October 9-13 survey finds Tom Jones (R) at 49% and James Andrew Malone (D) at 47% after leaner follow-up, with 5% undecided. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot among these same district voters.

Election date: November 3, 2026
Field dates: October 9-13, 2026
Sample: 1,973 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 2.2 points

Jones leads 49% to 47%

Tom Jones (R) leads James Andrew Malone (D) after leaner follow-up, with 5% undecided. The initial ballot is shown alongside the follow-up.

Response	Initial ballot	With leaners
Tom Jones (R)	48%	49%
James Andrew Malone (D)	46%	47%
Don’t know	7%	5%

Shapiro leads the governor ballot, 53% to 44%

Josh Shapiro (D) leads Stacy Garrity (R) among these district voters after leaner follow-up, with 3% undecided. The chart compares the initial ballot with the leaner follow-up.

Response	Initial ballot	With leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)	52%	53%
Stacy Garrity (R)	42%	44%
Don’t know	6%	3%

55% disapprove of Trump’s performance

Donald Trump receives 43% approval and 55% disapproval. The detailed responses distinguish strong and softer opinions; the separately rounded topline is available in Explore all results.

Response	Value	Change since September 11-13, 2026
Strongly approve	30%	+1 point
Somewhat approve	14%	-2 points
Somewhat disapprove	5%	-1 point
Strongly disapprove	50%	+2 points
Don’t know	1%	-1 point

Shapiro receives 56% job approval

Josh Shapiro receives 56% approval, compared with 39% disapproval. Strongly and somewhat held views are shown separately, preserving the report’s rounded detail.

Response	Value	Change since September 11-13, 2026
Strongly approve	34%	+5 points
Somewhat approve	22%	-4 points
Somewhat disapprove	15%	0 points
Strongly disapprove	24%	+1 point
Don’t know	5%	-1 point

Early voting

14% of likely voters say they have already voted (306 respondents), almost all by mail. Early voters back Malone 66% to 29% over Jones; voters who have not yet cast a ballot split 44% to 52%. Early votes are counted in the toplines, using the choice each early voter reported.

Same voters, two waves

97.3% gave the same 2024 recall both times, 95.0% made the same SD-36 choice and 94.6% the same Governor choice. Among these voters, 0 moved from Jones to Malone and 3 moved the other way; 6 September undecideds now back Malone and 4 back Jones.

These results follow the same 441 respondents in both surveys and are unweighted. Select Same voters, two waves in Explore all results for the wave comparisons.

Where respondents are leaning

Each dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its reported municipality. These map responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results. Dot positions are not respondents’ locations.

Team notes and analysis

The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.

Chaz Nuttycombe on who didn't come back

The voters who didn't return were redder, but Jones's number doesn't move

About 640 of the voters who took our September poll didn't take this one, so we ran the same test we ran in SD-6: we took their September answers and weighted them the same way we weighted our October poll, including our likely-voter model. As likely voters, they're a more Republican group than our September sample as a whole. With leaners, they identify as Republicans by 14.3 points, compared to 12.8 for the full September sample, and they recall voting for Donald Trump by 13 points, compared to 8 points in September. They're also warmer to President Trump: his net approval with this group is -5, 4 points better than the -9 he had in our full September sample. They were a little less committed to voting, too: before the likely-voter adjustment, 84% said they were definitely voting in September, compared to 86% of the full September sample.

Even so, Tom Jones is at 48% with them, the same share he had in our September poll and a point below his 49% in October. What they lack is Malone support: James Andrew Malone is at 42% with this group, compared to 45% in September, with 9% undecided. Unlike in SD-6, their undecideds are redder than the undecideds in our full September sample: they back Josh Shapiro 39% to 20% over Stacy Garrity, a 19-point margin compared to 29 points in September, and 54% disapprove of President Trump while 31% approve, compared to 58% and 30%. Losing these voters explains part of why our October recall and our October undecideds look bluer, but it doesn't explain away Malone's gains, and Jones's share is flat no matter who we count.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing, PDF page 9.

Chaz Nuttycombe on enthusiasm

Jones' younger base is the shakiest part of his coalition

Younger Republicans are the least locked-in voters in SD-36. Among voters under 45, 98% of registered Democrats have already voted or say they will definitely vote, compared to 86% of registered Republicans, a 12-point gap. By leaned party ID, it's 97% to 87%.

Among voters 45 and older, the gap shrinks to 4 points by either measure (99% to 95%). Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 20 points in this district, so Tom Jones starts with a big cushion, but the younger his voters are, the less certain they are to show up.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing, PDF page 10.

Explore all results

Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.

2024 President: Trump +15.4

Response	Value
Trump (R)	57%
Harris (D)	42%

2022 Governor: Shapiro +0.2

Response	Value
Shapiro (D)	49%
Mastriano (R)	49%

2022 U.S. Senate: Oz +13.3

Response	Value
Oz (R)	56%
Fetterman (D)	42%

2025 SD-36 Special: Malone +0.9

Response	Value
Malone (D)	50%
Parsons (R)	49%

Party registration

Response	Value	Change since September 11-13, 2026
Democratic	32.5%	-0.2 points
Republican	56.0%	+0.2 points
No Party / Other	11.4%	0 points

Ideology groups

Response	Value	Change since September 11-13, 2026
Progressive (7-10)	26%	0 points
Moderate (4-6)	29%	-1 point
Conservative (0-3)	41%	+2 points
Skipped / Don’t know	4%	-2 points

2024 presidential vote recalled

Response	Value
Trump (R)	47.6%
Harris (D)	45.4%
Third party	2.7%
Did not vote / No response	4.2%

Age

Response	Value
18-29	7%
30-44	20%
45-64	32%
65 or older	41%

Education

Response	Value
Less than bachelor’s	47%
Bachelor’s or higher	53%

Voting in the last four general elections

Response	Value
4 of 4	65%
3 of 4	15%
2 of 4	9%
1 of 4	6%
0 of 4	6%

SD-36 ballot with leaners

If the election for Pennsylvania State Senate District 36 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.

Response	Value	Change since September 11-13, 2026
Tom Jones (R)	49%	+1 point
James Andrew Malone (D)	47%	+2 points
Don’t know	5%	-2 points

SD-36 initial ballot

If the election for Pennsylvania State Senate District 36 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.

Response	Value	Change since September 11-13, 2026
Tom Jones (R)	48%	+2 points
James Andrew Malone (D)	46%	+2 points
Don’t know	7%	-3 points

Governor ballot with leaners

If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.

Response	Value	Change since September 11-13, 2026
Josh Shapiro (D)	53%	+1 point
Stacy Garrity (R)	44%	+2 points
Don’t know	3%	-3 points

Governor initial ballot

If the election for Pennsylvania Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Initial ballot, before leaner follow-up.) Includes early voters’ reported choice.

Response	Value	Change since September 11-13, 2026
Josh Shapiro (D)	52%	+1 point
Stacy Garrity (R)	42%	+2 points
Don’t know	6%	-3 points

President Trump job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

Response	Value	Change since September 11-13, 2026
Approve	43%	-2 points
Disapprove	55%	+2 points
Don’t know	1%	-1 point

President Trump job approval in detail

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

Response	Value	Change since September 11-13, 2026
Strongly approve	30%	+1 point
Somewhat approve	14%	-2 points
Somewhat disapprove	5%	-1 point
Strongly disapprove	50%	+2 points
Don’t know	1%	-1 point

Governor Shapiro job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?

Response	Value	Change since September 11-13, 2026
Approve	56%	0 points
Disapprove	39%	+1 point
Don’t know	5%	-1 point

Governor Shapiro job approval in detail

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?

Response	Value	Change since September 11-13, 2026
Strongly approve	34%	+5 points
Somewhat approve	22%	-4 points
Somewhat disapprove	15%	0 points
Strongly disapprove	24%	+1 point
Don’t know	5%	-1 point

2024 presidential recall among repeat respondents

The same 441 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.

Response	September	October	Earlier respondents	October respondents	Change since September
Harris (D)	51.7%	52.4%	228	231	+0.7 points
Trump (R)	42.2%	41.5%	186	183	-0.7 points
Third party	2.7%	2.9%	12	13	+0.2 points
No vote / No answer	3.4%	3.2%	15	14	-0.2 points

SD-36 ballot among repeat respondents

The same 441 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.

Response	September	October	Earlier respondents	October respondents	Change since September
Malone (D)	53.7%	53.7%	237	237	0 points
Jones (R)	41.7%	42.0%	184	185	+0.2 points
Undecided	4.5%	4.3%	20	19	-0.2 points

Governor ballot among repeat respondents

The same 441 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.

Response	September	October	Earlier respondents	October respondents	Change since September
Shapiro (D)	59.4%	59.2%	262	261	-0.2 points
Garrity (R)	36.5%	37.9%	161	167	+1.4 points
Undecided	4.1%	2.9%	18	13	-1.1 points

Voting likelihood among repeat respondents

The same 441 people answered both surveys. Shares and counts are unweighted and separate from the likely-voter toplines. The paired rows compare their answers in each wave.

Response	September	October	Earlier respondents	October respondents	Change since September
Already voted	Not labeled in PDF	13.2%	Not labeled in PDF	58	Not labeled
Definitely voting	91.6%	81.2%	404	358	-10.4 points
Probably voting	6.8%	4.8%	30	21	-2 points
Unlikely to vote	1.6%	0.9%	7	4	-0.7 points

Ideology by voter group

Ideology is respondents' self-placement on a 0-10 scale (10 = most progressive, 0 = far right). Detailed shares are of all respondents; 4.2% skipped the question. Group averages are weighted and computed among those who placed themselves (overall mean 4.6).

Response	Value
Malone voters (D)	6.9
Shapiro voters (D)	6.5
All voters	4.6
Undecided Senate voters	4.5
Jones voters (R)	2.5
Garrity voters (R)	2.4

Detailed ideological self-placement

Response	Value
10. Democratic Socialist	6%
9. Extremely Progressive/Liberal	3%
8. Very Progressive/Liberal	7%
7. Progressive/Liberal	10%
6. Center-left	10%
5. Moderate / Centrist	11%
4. Center-right	8%
3. Conservative	17%
2. Very Conservative	15%
1. Extremely Conservative	6%
0. Far Right	4%
Skipped / Don’t know	4%

Regional shares of the weighted sample

Response	Value
HD-37	24.2%
HD-41	20.9%
HD-98	20.1%
HD-96	16.4%
HD-43	15.1%
HD-97	3.3%

District regions

The map shows the surveyed district’s boundaries and weighting regions. Percentages are shares of the weighted likely-voter sample.

Response	Value
HD-37	24.2%
HD-41	20.9%
HD-98	20.1%
HD-96	16.4%
HD-43	15.1%
HD-97	3.3%

How the survey was conducted

State Navigate surveyed 1,973 likely voters (2,244 respondents) in Pennsylvania's 36th State Senate District from October 9-13, 2026, including voters who had already cast a ballot. This is a follow-up to our September 11-13, 2026 poll: 441 respondents took both surveys, matched by ID. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and region to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 2.2% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.

Download the complete poll briefing (PDF)