Jones narrowly leads Malone in Pennsylvania’s 36th Senate District
State Navigate’s September 11-13 survey finds Tom Jones at 48%, James Andrew Malone at 45%, and 7% undecided after leaner follow-up. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot among these same district voters.
Election date
November 3, 2026
Field dates
September 11-13, 2026
Sample
915 likely voters
Margin of error
+/- 3.2 points
Jones has a three-point edge after leaners are included
Republican Tom Jones receives 48% to Democratic incumbent James Andrew Malone’s 45%, with 7% still undecided. The initial ballot was 46%-44%. The paired results show how the topline changes after the leaner follow-up; they do not identify individual voter movement.
View chart values
State Senate ballot with leaners
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Tom Jones (R)
46%
48%
James Andrew Malone (D)
44%
45%
Don’t know
10%
7%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Includes the leaner follow-up.
Where respondents are leaning
1,085 unweighted responses from the supplied map export. These responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results above. Each dot represents one response, placed within its municipality rather than at a respondent’s address.
Candidate
Vote certainty
Drag to pan or pinch with two fingers to zoom. With the map focused, use + and - to zoom and 0 to reset. Hover over a dot for its response or focus a municipality for its counts. Percentages reflect the selected certainty groups. Dot positions are illustrative, not precise respondent locations.
Shapiro leads by ten points in the same district
Josh Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity 52%-42% with leaners included. Before the follow-up, the governor ballot stood at 51%-40%. These are results among likely voters in Senate District 36, not a statewide governor poll.
View chart values
Governor ballot with leaners
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)
51%
52%
Stacy Garrity (R)
40%
42%
Don’t know
9%
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Includes the leaner follow-up. Governor results describe this district’s electorate, not statewide opinion.
More district voters disapprove of Trump than approve
Donald Trump’s topline job approval stands at 45%, while 53% disapprove and 2% do not know. The detailed responses show 29% strongly approve, 16% somewhat approve, 6% somewhat disapprove, and 48% strongly disapprove.
View chart values
President Trump job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
29%
Somewhat approve
16%
Somewhat disapprove
6%
Strongly disapprove
48%
Don’t know
2%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded; original values are retained. Published shares total 101%.
Shapiro’s approval exceeds his ballot support
Josh Shapiro’s topline approval is 56%, with 38% disapproval. The detailed responses show 29% strongly approve, 26% somewhat approve, 15% somewhat disapprove, 23% strongly disapprove, and 6% who do not know.
View chart values
Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
29%
Somewhat approve
26%
Somewhat disapprove
15%
Strongly disapprove
23%
Don’t know
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded; original values are retained. Published shares total 99%.
Team notes and analysis
The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.
Chaz Nuttycombe on executive approvals
A Tale of Two Approvals
SD-36 voters split on Trump (45% approve / 53% disapprove) and back Josh Shapiro (56% / 38%). The 46% who disapprove of Trump and approve of Shapiro are overwhelmingly Malone's, breaking 90-5, while the 9% who approve of both are Jones's at 80-8. Unlike some districts, the double-haters here, the 5% who disapprove of both Trump and Shapiro, actually lean Republican, favoring Jones 60-18 and Garrity 55-23. Malone can't count on the disaffected middle to bail him out; he has to win back Shapiro voters who are crossing over.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 8.
Mary Radcliffe on vote method
The Blue Mirage is alive and well in Lancaster County
While there's been some evidence that vote method is becoming less politically polarized nationally, that doesn't appear to be the case in SD-36. Respondents that plan to vote by mail, about a fifth of the sample, break more than 2-to-1 in favor of Malone, while the three quarters of respondents that plan to vote on election day favor Jones by 13 percentage points. This will matter on Election Day, as early returns typically comprise more mail ballots, so the results should shift over the course of the evening.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 8.
Michael Foley on area codes
We called phones from different area codes: it matters much in SD-36
We know the area codes of the phones we dialed. Unlike in Northeast Pennsylvania's SD-40, SD-36 likely voters with local Lancaster-area 717 and 223 area codes were much more likely to vote for Republican candidate Tom Jones (51%) than transplants who kept their old other area codes (39%).
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 8.
Explore all results
Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.
2024 presidential election
View chart values
2024 presidential election
Response
Value
Trump (R)
57%
Harris (D)
42%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within Senate District 36, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Trump +15.4. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 99%.
2022 governor election
View chart values
2022 governor election
Response
Value
Shapiro (D)
49%
Mastriano (R)
49%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within Senate District 36, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Shapiro +0.2. Both vote shares round to 49%. Published shares total 98%.
2022 U.S. Senate election
View chart values
2022 U.S. Senate election
Response
Value
Oz (R)
56%
Fetterman (D)
42%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within Senate District 36, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Oz +13.3. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 98%.
2025 SD-36 special election
View chart values
2025 SD-36 special election
Response
Value
Malone (D)
50%
Parsons (R)
49%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within Senate District 36, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Malone +0.9. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 99%.
Party registration
View chart values
Party registration
Response
Value
Democrat
33%
Republican
56%
Independent / Other
11%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36.
Ideological self-identification
View chart values
Ideological self-identification
Response
Value
Progressives / Liberals
26%
Moderates / Center
30%
Conservatives
39%
Skipped / Don’t know
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Published shares total 101%.
Age
View chart values
Age
Response
Value
18-29
7%
30-44
19%
45-64
33%
65 or older
41%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36.
Race / ethnicity
View chart values
Race / ethnicity
Response
Value
White
92%
Asian / Pacific Islander
1%
Latino / Hispanic
3%
Other
2%
Two or more
2%
Black
0%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36.
Education
View chart values
Education
Response
Value
Less than bachelor’s
46%
Bachelor’s or higher
54%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36.
Vote history in the last four general elections
View chart values
Vote history in the last four general elections
Response
Value
4 of 4
65%
3 of 4
16%
2 of 4
8%
1 of 4
5%
0 of 4
5%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Published shares total 99%.
State Senate ballot with leaners
If the election for Pennsylvania State Senate District 36 were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
State Senate ballot with leaners
Response
Value
Tom Jones (R)
48%
James Andrew Malone (D)
45%
Don’t know
7%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Includes the leaner follow-up.
State Senate ballot before leaner follow-up
If the election for Pennsylvania State Senate District 36 were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
State Senate ballot before leaner follow-up
Response
Value
Tom Jones (R)
46%
James Andrew Malone (D)
44%
Don’t know
10%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Initial ballot, before the leaner follow-up.
Governor ballot with leaners
If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
Governor ballot with leaners
Response
Value
Josh Shapiro (D)
52%
Stacy Garrity (R)
42%
Don’t know
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Includes the leaner follow-up. Governor results describe this district’s electorate, not statewide opinion.
Governor ballot before leaner follow-up
If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
Governor ballot before leaner follow-up
Response
Value
Josh Shapiro (D)
51%
Stacy Garrity (R)
40%
Don’t know
9%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Initial ballot, before the leaner follow-up. Governor results describe this district’s electorate, not statewide opinion.
President Trump job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
View chart values
President Trump job approval
Response
Value
Approve
45%
Disapprove
53%
Don’t know
2%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Values follow the published topline chart.
President Trump job approval - detailed
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
View chart values
President Trump job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
29%
Somewhat approve
16%
Somewhat disapprove
6%
Strongly disapprove
48%
Don’t know
2%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded; original values are retained. Published shares total 101%.
Governor Shapiro job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
View chart values
Governor Shapiro job approval
Response
Value
Approve
56%
Disapprove
38%
Don’t know
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Values follow the published topline chart.
Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
View chart values
Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
29%
Somewhat approve
26%
Somewhat disapprove
15%
Strongly disapprove
23%
Don’t know
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded; original values are retained. Published shares total 99%.
Average ideology by voter group
View chart values
Average ideology by voter group
Response
Value
Malone voters
7 on a 0-10 scale
Shapiro voters
6.6 on a 0-10 scale
Undecided voters
4.7 on a 0-10 scale
All voters
4.7 on a 0-10 scale
Jones voters
2.5 on a 0-10 scale
Garrity voters
2.4 on a 0-10 scale
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 6. Respondents giving a self-placement score, within each named voter group. Means are among respondents who placed themselves on the scale. The PDF reports 5.7% skipped this question. 0 is far right; 10 is most progressive.
Ideological self-placement
View chart values
Ideological self-placement
Response
Value
10 - Democratic Socialist
6%
9 - Extremely Progressive / Liberal
4%
8 - Very Progressive / Liberal
5%
7 - Progressive / Liberal
11%
6 - Center-left
8%
5 - Moderate / Centrist
11%
4 - Center-right
10%
3 - Conservative
15%
2 - Very Conservative
13%
1 - Extremely Conservative
7%
0 - Far Right
3%
Skipped / Don’t know
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 6. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Shares use all respondents. The accompanying text reports 5.7% skipped. 0 is far right; 10 is most progressive. Full response labels are retained in the values table. Colors run from red at the conservative end through neutral at 5 to blue at the progressive end; skipped responses are gray. Published shares total 99%.
Region weights
View chart values
Region weights
Response
Value
HD-37
24.3%
HD-41
20.7%
HD-98
20.4%
HD-96
16.2%
HD-43
15.1%
HD-97
3.3%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 7. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. Share of the weighted likely-voter sample. One full tick represents one percentage point; partial ticks retain the reported decimals.
SD-36 by region
View chart values
SD-36 by region
Response
Value
HD-37
24.3%
HD-41
20.7%
HD-98
20.4%
HD-96
16.2%
HD-43
15.1%
HD-97
3.3%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-36 poll briefing - PDF page 7. 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 36. House-district regions clipped to Senate District 36. Boundaries use State Navigate’s district geometry; street-map background omitted. Values in the legend are weighted sample shares, not land-area shares.
How the survey was conducted
State Navigate surveyed 915 likely voters in Pennsylvania's 36th State Senate District from September 11-13, 2026, with an oversample of voters living in the 41st State House District. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and State House district to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 3.2% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.
