Brown narrowly leads Wrightson in Pennsylvania’s 40th Senate District
State Navigate’s September 11-13 survey finds Rosemary Brown at 47%, Brian Wrightson at 44%, and 9% undecided after leaner follow-up. Josh Shapiro leads the governor ballot 55%-37% among the same district voters.
Election date
November 3, 2026
Field dates
September 11-13, 2026
Sample
1,004 likely voters
Margin of error
+/- 3.1 points
Brown leads 47%-44% after leaners are included
Republican incumbent Rosemary Brown receives 47% to Democrat Brian Wrightson’s 44%, with 9% still undecided. Before the leaner follow-up, the ballot stood at 43%-42%, with 15% undecided.
View chart values
State Senate ballot with leaners
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Rosemary Brown (R)
43%
47%
Brian Wrightson (D)
42%
44%
Don’t know
15%
9%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Includes the leaner follow-up. The briefing’s prose calls this a two-point margin, while the displayed whole-number shares are 47% and 44%. Those shares are preserved here.
Where respondents are leaning
1,195 unweighted responses from the supplied map export. These responses are separate from the weighted likely-voter results above. Each dot represents one response, placed within its municipality rather than at a respondent’s address.
Candidate
Vote certainty
Drag to pan or pinch with two fingers to zoom. With the map focused, use + and - to zoom and 0 to reset. Hover over a dot for its response or focus a municipality for its counts. Percentages reflect the selected certainty groups. Dot positions are illustrative, not precise respondent locations.
Shapiro leads by eighteen points in the same district
Josh Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity 55%-37% with leaners included. Before the follow-up, the governor ballot stood at 52%-36%. These are results among likely voters in Senate District 40, not a statewide governor poll.
View chart values
Governor ballot with leaners
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)
52%
55%
Stacy Garrity (R)
36%
37%
Don’t know
12%
8%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Includes the leaner follow-up. These results describe Senate District 40’s electorate, not statewide opinion.
Trump’s disapproval exceeds approval by sixteen points
Donald Trump’s topline job approval stands at 41%, while 57% disapprove and 2% do not know. In the detailed responses, 28% strongly approve, 13% somewhat approve, 5% somewhat disapprove, and 51% strongly disapprove.
View chart values
President Trump job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
28%
Somewhat approve
13%
Somewhat disapprove
5%
Strongly disapprove
51%
Don’t know
2%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded; original values are retained. Published shares total 99%.
A majority of district voters approve of Shapiro
Josh Shapiro has 56% job approval and 38% disapproval among the district’s likely voters. The detailed responses show 32% strongly approve, 24% somewhat approve, 17% somewhat disapprove, 20% strongly disapprove, and 7% who do not know.
View chart values
Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
32%
Somewhat approve
24%
Somewhat disapprove
17%
Strongly disapprove
20%
Don’t know
7%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded; original values are retained.
Team notes and analysis
The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.
Chaz Nuttycombe on executive approvals
A Tale of Two Approvals
Voters in SD-40 dislike Donald Trump (41% approve / 57% disapprove) and like Josh Shapiro (56% / 38%). The 45% of the district that disapproves of Trump while approving of Shapiro is Wrightson's base, breaking for him 80-12. But the 10% who approve of both men are almost entirely Brown's, at 89-4. The tell for how close this race really is: the 9% of double-haters who disapprove of both Trump and Shapiro favor Wrightson 55-27 and Shapiro 51-25. Wrightson is actually winning the sour-on-everyone middle; his problem is the Shapiro-to-Brown crossover, not the double-haters.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 8.
Mary Radcliffe on vote method
The Blue Mirage is alive and well in Northeast Pennsylvania
While there's been some evidence that vote method is becoming less politically polarized nationally, that doesn't appear to be the case in SD-40. Respondents that plan to vote by mail, just under a third of the sample, break more than 2-to-1 in favor of Wrightson, while the two-thirds that plan to vote on election day favor Brown by 20 percentage points. This will matter on Election Day, as early returns typically comprise more mail ballots, so the results should shift over the course of the evening.
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 8.
Michael Foley on area codes
We called phones from different area codes: it didn't make much of a difference in SD-40
We know the area codes of the phones we dialed. Unlike in the Lancaster County districts, likely voters with local Northeast Pennsylvania 570 or 272 area codes were only slightly more likely to vote for Republican candidate Rosemary Brown (49%) than transplants who kept their old other area codes (43%).
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 8.
Explore all results
Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.
2024 presidential election
View chart values
2024 presidential election
Response
Value
Trump (R)
53%
Harris (D)
46%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within Senate District 40, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Trump +6.5. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 99%.
2022 governor election
View chart values
2022 governor election
Response
Value
Shapiro (D)
53%
Mastriano (R)
45%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within Senate District 40, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Shapiro +8.1. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 98%.
2022 U.S. Senate election
View chart values
2022 U.S. Senate election
Response
Value
Fetterman (D)
50%
Oz (R)
48%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within Senate District 40, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Fetterman +1.8. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages. Published shares total 98%.
2022 State Senate election
View chart values
2022 State Senate election
Response
Value
Brown (R)
55%
Shukaitis (D)
45%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 2. Election results within Senate District 40, as reported in the briefing. Reported margin: Brown +10.6. Vote shares are shown rounded to whole percentages.
Party registration
View chart values
Party registration
Response
Value
Democrat
46%
Republican
43%
Independent / Other
12%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Published shares total 101%.
Ideological self-identification
View chart values
Ideological self-identification
Response
Value
Progressives / Liberals
28%
Moderates / Center
29%
Conservatives
35%
Skipped / Don’t know
8%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40.
Age
View chart values
Age
Response
Value
18-29
6%
30-44
15%
45-64
37%
65 or older
41%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Published shares total 99%.
Race / ethnicity
View chart values
Race / ethnicity
Response
Value
White
85%
Asian / Pacific Islander
1%
Latino / Hispanic
6%
Other
1%
Two or more
1%
Black
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40.
Education
View chart values
Education
Response
Value
Less than bachelor’s
60%
Bachelor’s or higher
40%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40.
Vote history in the last four general elections
View chart values
Vote history in the last four general elections
Response
Value
4 of 4
56%
3 of 4
16%
2 of 4
11%
1 of 4
11%
0 of 4
6%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 3. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40.
State Senate ballot with leaners
If the election for Pennsylvania State Senate District 40 were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
State Senate ballot with leaners
Response
Value
Rosemary Brown (R)
47%
Brian Wrightson (D)
44%
Don’t know
9%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Includes the leaner follow-up. The briefing’s prose calls this a two-point margin, while the displayed whole-number shares are 47% and 44%. Those shares are preserved here.
State Senate ballot before leaner follow-up
If the election for Pennsylvania State Senate District 40 were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
State Senate ballot before leaner follow-up
Response
Value
Rosemary Brown (R)
43%
Brian Wrightson (D)
42%
Don’t know
15%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Initial ballot, before the leaner follow-up.
Governor ballot with leaners
If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
Governor ballot with leaners
Response
Value
Josh Shapiro (D)
55%
Stacy Garrity (R)
37%
Don’t know
8%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Includes the leaner follow-up. These results describe Senate District 40’s electorate, not statewide opinion.
Governor ballot before leaner follow-up
If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
View chart values
Governor ballot before leaner follow-up
Response
Value
Josh Shapiro (D)
52%
Stacy Garrity (R)
36%
Don’t know
12%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 4. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Initial ballot, before the leaner follow-up. These results describe Senate District 40’s electorate, not statewide opinion.
President Trump job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
View chart values
President Trump job approval
Response
Value
Approve
41%
Disapprove
57%
Don’t know
2%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Values follow the published topline chart.
President Trump job approval - detailed
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
View chart values
President Trump job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
28%
Somewhat approve
13%
Somewhat disapprove
5%
Strongly disapprove
51%
Don’t know
2%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded; original values are retained. Published shares total 99%.
Governor Shapiro job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
View chart values
Governor Shapiro job approval
Response
Value
Approve
56%
Disapprove
38%
Don’t know
7%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Values follow the published topline chart. Published shares total 101%.
Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
View chart values
Governor Shapiro job approval - detailed
Response
Value
Strongly approve
32%
Somewhat approve
24%
Somewhat disapprove
17%
Strongly disapprove
20%
Don’t know
7%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 5. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Values follow the published detailed chart. Detailed components and toplines are independently rounded; original values are retained.
Average ideology by voter group
View chart values
Average ideology by voter group
Response
Value
Wrightson voters
7.1 on a 0-10 scale
Shapiro voters
6.7 on a 0-10 scale
Undecided voters
5.4 on a 0-10 scale
All voters
4.9 on a 0-10 scale
Brown voters
2.8 on a 0-10 scale
Garrity voters
2.4 on a 0-10 scale
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 6. Respondents giving a self-placement score, within each named voter group. Means are among respondents who placed themselves on the scale. The PDF reports 7.8% skipped this question. 0 is far right; 10 is most progressive.
Ideological self-placement
View chart values
Ideological self-placement
Response
Value
10 - Democratic Socialist
10%
9 - Extremely Progressive / Liberal
2%
8 - Very Progressive / Liberal
6%
7 - Progressive / Liberal
10%
6 - Center-left
8%
5 - Moderate / Centrist
14%
4 - Center-right
8%
3 - Conservative
15%
2 - Very Conservative
10%
1 - Extremely Conservative
5%
0 - Far Right
5%
Skipped / Don’t know
8%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 6. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Shares use all respondents. The accompanying text reports 7.8% skipped. 0 is far right; 10 is most progressive. Full response labels are retained in the values table. Colors run from red at the conservative end through neutral at 5 to blue at the progressive end; skipped responses are gray. Published shares total 101%.
Region weights
View chart values
Region weights
Response
Value
HD-176
24.6%
HD-115
21.5%
HD-112
20.6%
HD-189
14.3%
HD-139
8.0%
HD-113
7.3%
HD-111
3.7%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 7. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. Share of the weighted likely-voter sample. One full tick represents one percentage point; partial ticks retain the reported decimals.
SD-40 by region
View chart values
SD-40 by region
Response
Value
HD-176
24.6%
HD-115
21.5%
HD-112
20.6%
HD-189
14.3%
HD-139
8.0%
HD-113
7.3%
HD-111
3.7%
State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-40 poll briefing - PDF page 7. 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania Senate District 40. House-district regions within Senate District 40. Source: State Navigate district boundaries. Legend percentages show weighted survey shares, not land area.
How the survey was conducted
State Navigate surveyed 1,004 likely voters in Pennsylvania's 40th State Senate District from September 11-13, 2026. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and township to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 3.1% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.
