Bartolotta and Borello are tied in Pennsylvania SD-46
Republican Camera Bartolotta and independent Jodi Borello each receive 43% with leaners, while Josh Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity 51% to 42% among the district’s likely voters.
Election
November 3, 2026
Field dates
October 3-5, 2026
Sample
1,201 likely voters
Margin of error
±2.8 percentage points
Bartolotta and Borello are tied
Republican incumbent Camera Bartolotta and independent Jodi Borello each receive 43% after the leaner follow-up, with 14% undecided. Before that follow-up, Bartolotta led 40% to 37%, with 23% undecided.
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Camera Bartolotta (R)
40%
43%
Jodi Borello (I)
37%
43%
Don’t Know
23%
14%
Shapiro leads by nine points in SD-46
Josh Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity 51% to 42% among likely voters in this Senate district, with 7% undecided. The initial ballot was 49% Shapiro and 39% Garrity, with 12% undecided.
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Josh Shapiro (D)
49%
51%
Stacy Garrity (R)
39%
42%
Don’t Know
12%
7%
Trump faces more disapproval than approval
Forty-seven percent approve of President Trump’s job performance and 51% disapprove. Thirty-two percent strongly approve, while 45% strongly disapprove. Two percent have no opinion.
Response
Value
Strongly approve
32%
Somewhat approve
15%
Somewhat disapprove
6%
Strongly disapprove
45%
Don’t Know
2%
Shapiro’s approval exceeds his ballot support
Gov. Shapiro receives 53% approval and 40% disapproval in the district, compared with his 51% ballot support. The detailed chart shows 31% strongly approve and 21% somewhat approve; that separately rounded detail is retained as printed.
Response
Value
Strongly approve
31%
Somewhat approve
21%
Somewhat disapprove
15%
Strongly disapprove
25%
Don’t Know
7%
Live response map
Each dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its reported county. Dot positions are not respondents’ locations.
The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.
Chaz Nuttycombe on party loyalty
Borello is winning over Republicans, but Bartolotta is holding onto some Democrats.
Jodi Borello's biggest asset is her crossover appeal: she wins 18% of voters who identify as Republicans, while Camera Bartolotta holds just 72% of her own party, with 10% undecided. Borello is even pulling from the far end of the spectrum: 32% of voters who place themselves at Far Right on the ideological scale back her, compared to 58% for Bartolotta, a better showing for the independent than among any other conservative group. For an incumbent in a district Donald Trump carried by 28 points, that's a weak hold on her base, and it comes after a rough year inside her own party. In January, the Washington County Republican Committee's executive committee passed a vote of no confidence in Bartolotta, 21 to 3, before the state party declared the vote void. In May, she faced the first primary challenge of her Senate career and beat Greene County contractor Al Buchtan, who ran as a MAGA-aligned outsider against the party establishment, just 53.4% to 46.6% after an expensive and bitter race. Buchtan carried Greene County in the primary, and Bartolotta hasn't pulled ahead there: she and Borello are tied at about 41%, with 17% undecided. The crossover also runs both ways, as Bartolotta wins 11% of Democrats. That's a familiar pattern when a major-party candidate faces an independent with no candidate from the other party on the ballot: some voters default to the only major-party name they see, either because they don't know much about the third-party candidate or because they assume an independent can't win. With no Democrat in the race after Evan Snyder withdrew, those Democrats are Borello's most natural pickups if she can convince them she's viable. Voters who identify as independents or with another party favor Borello 53% to 26%.
State Navigate Pennsylvania SD-46 poll, PDF page 8.
Chaz Nuttycombe on undecided voters
The undecideds look very favorable to Borello.
Bartolotta and Borello are tied with leaners (43% to 43%), but the undecideds lean Borello's way. About 14% of likely voters remain undecided, and they are more Democratic and independent than the district as a whole: 40% identify as Democrats, compared to 35% of all likely voters, 24% identify as independents or with another party, compared to 17%, and just 36% identify as Republicans, compared to 49%. They also like Josh Shapiro: undecided voters back the Governor 51% to 21% over Stacy Garrity, a much wider margin than his 51% to 42% lead districtwide. If undecided voters break the same way as decided voters who share their party identification, Borello would win roughly 51% to 49%. That makes this race a true toss-up, with a slight edge to Borello.
State Navigate Pennsylvania SD-46 poll, PDF page 8. The analysis describes districtwide party identification as 35% Democratic, 49% Republican, and 17% independent/other. The page 3 demographic chart instead reports 40%, 54%, and 6%. Both source presentations are preserved.
Chaz Nuttycombe on voter enthusiasm
Bartolotta's support is firmer, but both camps are equally motivated.
Bartolotta's supporters are more locked in: 59% say they will definitely vote for her, compared to 48% of Borello's supporters who say the same about her. A meaningful share of Borello's support is also soft, as 13% of her voters only picked her after first saying they were undecided, compared to 7% of Bartolotta's. Turnout intentions are a wash, though: 92% of Borello's voters and 91% of Bartolotta's say they are definitely voting in November, compared to 79% of undecided voters. Borello's coalition looks like a newer one that is still getting to know its candidate, while Bartolotta's is steadier. Borello's task in the closing weeks is turning soft support into firm support and convincing Democrats supporting Bartolotta to get behind her instead; Bartolotta's is winning back the Republicans who have drifted away from her by informing them that Borello would caucus with the Democrats in the State Senate.
State Navigate Pennsylvania SD-46 poll, PDF page 9.
Chaz Nuttycombe on geography
Rural voters are swinging toward Shapiro, and it doesn't look like a polling problem.
Compared to Josh Shapiro's 2022 race against Doug Mastriano, the biggest swing toward Democrats in our poll comes from the district's rural areas: Greene County, Washington South, and the Northwest Rurals together move about 16 points toward Shapiro, from a 19-point Mastriano win to a 4-point Garrity lead. The Allegheny suburbs move about 14 points, and Washington Central and the Mon Valley about 10. A rural swing that size can be a sign that a poll is missing rural Republicans, but our data don't point that way. Rural respondents make up 32% of our raw sample, almost exactly their 33% share of the electorate, so they needed almost no weighting. While our sample has a bluer 2024 presidential recall topline compared to the actual results, the gap is similar across the district: about 15 points in the rural areas, 14 in the Allegheny suburbs, and 11 in Washington Central and the Mon Valley. The recall isn't swinging as hard in the suburbs because their Republican voters are more likely to have a college degree and are therefore more likely to turn out in every election, while rural areas are filled with non-college voters who are more likely to sit out a year like this one. That's what we'd expect if the 2026 electorate is simply more Democratic-leaning than the 2022 and 2024 electorates were, given the national environment, rather than one part of the district not responding.
State Navigate Pennsylvania SD-46 poll, PDF page 9. The analysis describes a rural swing of about 16 points; its stated approximate margins, 19 points and 4 points, imply 15 points. The author’s wording and source approximations are retained.
Explore all results
Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.
2024 President
Response
Value
Trump (R)
64%
Harris (D)
35%
2026 Republican Senate primary
Response
Value
Bartolotta (R)
53%
Buchtan (R)
47%
2022 Governor
Response
Value
Mastriano (R)
52%
Shapiro (D)
47%
2022 U.S. Senate
Response
Value
Oz (R)
57%
Fetterman (D)
41%
Party registration
Response
Value
Democratic
40.3%
Republican
51.4%
No Party / Other
8.3%
Party identification with leaners
Response
Value
Democrat
40%
Republican
54%
Neither
6%
Recalled 2024 presidential vote
Response
Value
Donald Trump (R)
53.4%
Kamala Harris (D)
38.4%
Third party
2.5%
Did Not Vote / No Response
5.7%
Age
Response
Value
18-29
5%
30-44
16%
45-64
35%
65 or older
44%
Education
Response
Value
Less than Bachelor’s
56%
Bachelor’s or higher
44%
Participation in the last four general elections
Response
Value
4 of 4
60%
3 of 4
18%
2 of 4
8%
1 of 4
8%
0 of 4
5%
SD-46 with leaners
If the election for Pennsylvania State Senate District 46 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up)
Response
Value
Camera Bartolotta (R)
43%
Jodi Borello (I)
43%
Don’t Know
14%
SD-46 before undecided push
If the election for Pennsylvania State Senate District 46 were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (initial ballot, before leaner follow-up)
Response
Value
Camera Bartolotta (R)
40%
Jodi Borello (I)
37%
Don’t Know
23%
Governor with leaners
If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up)
Response
Value
Josh Shapiro (D)
51%
Stacy Garrity (R)
42%
Don’t Know
7%
Governor before undecided push
If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (initial ballot, before leaner follow-up)
Response
Value
Josh Shapiro (D)
49%
Stacy Garrity (R)
39%
Don’t Know
12%
President Trump job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Approve
47%
Disapprove
51%
Don’t Know
2%
President Trump job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Strongly approve
32%
Somewhat approve
15%
Somewhat disapprove
6%
Strongly disapprove
45%
Don’t Know
2%
Gov. Shapiro job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Approve
53%
Disapprove
40%
Don’t Know
7%
Gov. Shapiro job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Josh Shapiro is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Strongly approve
31%
Somewhat approve
21%
Somewhat disapprove
15%
Strongly disapprove
25%
Don’t Know
7%
Average ideology by voter group
Response
Value
Shapiro voters
6.4 on a 0-10 scale
Borello voters
5.9 on a 0-10 scale
Undecided for SD-46
4.6 on a 0-10 scale
All voters
4.4 on a 0-10 scale
Bartolotta voters
2.9 on a 0-10 scale
Garrity voters
2.4 on a 0-10 scale
Detailed ideological self-placement
Response
Value
10. Democratic Socialist
5%
9. Extremely Progressive/Liberal
2%
8. Very Progressive/Liberal
5%
7. Progressive/Liberal
9%
6. Center-left
8%
5. Moderate / Centrist
13%
4. Center-right
7%
3. Conservative
18%
2. Very Conservative
12%
1. Extremely Conservative
5%
0. Far Right
6%
Skipped / Don’t Know
9%
Region weights
Response
Value
Greene County
11.7%
Northwest Rurals
11.0%
Allegheny Adjacent Burbs
21.9%
Washington Central
12.6%
Washington South
10.0%
Mon Valley
15.1%
Allegheny Outer Burbs
17.7%
SD-46 by weighting region
Response
Value
Greene County
11.7%
Northwest Rurals
11.0%
Allegheny Adjacent Burbs
21.9%
Washington Central
12.6%
Washington South
10.0%
Mon Valley
15.1%
Allegheny Outer Burbs
17.7%
How the survey was conducted
State Navigate surveyed 1,201 likely voters in Pennsylvania's 46th State Senate District from October 3-5, 2026. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and region to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 2.8% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.
