Albillar narrowly leads Farry in Pennsylvania SD-6

Chaz Nuttycombe on who didn't come back

The voters who didn't return were redder, but Farry still can't get past the mid-40s

About 1,500 of the voters who took our first poll didn't take this one, so we ran a test: we took their July answers and weighted them the same way we weighted our October poll, including our likely-voter model. As likely voters, they're a more Republican-leaning group than our July sample as a whole. With leaners, they identify as Republicans by a hair (R+0.6), compared to D+2.6 for the full July sample, and they recall voting for Kamala Harris by just 3 points, compared to 6 points in July. They aren't much warmer to President Trump, though: his net approval with this group is -18, just 3 points better than the -21 he had in our full July sample. They were also a little less committed to voting: before the likely-voter adjustment, 85% said they were definitely voting in July, compared to 87% of the full July sample.

Even so, Frank Farry is stuck at 45% with them, the same share he had in our July poll and a point below his 46% in October. What they lack is Albillar support, not Farry support: Eileen Hartnett Albillar is at 43% with this group, with 11% undecided. Their undecideds also look slightly bluer than the undecideds in our full July sample: they back Josh Shapiro 56% to 11% over Stacy Garrity, compared to 55% to 12% in July, and 64% disapprove of President Trump while 25% approve, compared to 62% and 25%. Farry's ceiling isn't just a product of who answered our October poll; even among the more Republican-leaning voters we lost, the undecideds look more like Albillar voters than Farry voters.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-6 poll briefing, PDF page 9.

Chaz Nuttycombe on undecideds

The remaining undecideds are even bluer than they were in July

The undecided pool in the State Senate race has shrunk by almost half since our first poll, from about 10% of likely voters to 5%, and the voters still on the fence lean further toward Democrats than they did in July. Back then, 62% of undecided voters disapproved of President Trump; now 68% do, compared to 60% of the district as a whole, and just 19% approve of the job he's doing, down from 25%. Josh Shapiro is still dominating with this group, carrying 58% of their vote to Stacy Garrity's 8%, a 50-point margin that's wider than the 43 points he had among undecideds in July (55% to 12%). The makeup of the group has shifted, too: 37% of the remaining undecideds are registered Democrats, up from 31%, while 39% are registered Republicans, down from 45%.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-6 poll briefing, PDF page 10.

Chaz Nuttycombe on recall

Liar Liar, Pants on Fire

Our 2024 presidential recall in SD-6 is 2.3 points bluer than it was in our first poll: likely voters now recall backing Kamala Harris by 8.7 points, up from 6.4 in July. Because about 680 voters took both of our surveys, we can check how much of that comes from people changing their story. If every one of them had given us the same answer they gave in July, our October recall would be Harris +8.3, so voters changing their answers account for 0.4 points, or 19.1% of the shift; the rest comes from who answered our poll, not what they said. The voters who changed their answer are a small group, about 1% of the likely electorate, and only a handful switched directly between Harris and Trump, with most moving in or out of "did not vote," "third party," or declining to answer. But the movement was lopsided: as a group, they recalled voting for Trump by 6 points in July and for Harris by 30 points in October.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-6 poll briefing, PDF page 10.

Chaz Nuttycombe on enthusiasm

There's no enthusiasm gap among older voters, but there is one among younger ones

The enthusiasm gap in SD-6 is almost entirely a story about age. Among voters under 45, 99% of registered Democrats have already voted or say they will definitely vote, compared to 90% of registered Republicans. By leaned party ID, it's 96% to 88%.

Among voters 45 and older, there's no gap at all: 97% of registered Democrats and 97% of registered Republicans are locked in. Older voters make up most of the likely electorate, so the overall effect is modest, but younger Republicans are the voters Frank Farry can least afford to lose in a close race.

State Navigate - Pennsylvania SD-6 poll briefing, PDF page 11.