Trump Approval
Explore estimated job approval across states and legislative districts. Select a state to see its House and Senate districts.
Updated: October 2, 2026
State estimates
Modeled net approval among all adults, with 95% model ranges. Select a state to explore its districts.
Approval over time
Daily modeled estimates among all adults. Shading shows the 95% model range.
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District estimates
Modeled net approval among all adults, with 95% model ranges.
| District | Modeled net approval range (pts) |
|---|
How it’s modeled
We estimate Trump’s approval in each state legislative district by combining national polling across demographic groups, state-level approval polls, and each district’s demographic makeup.
National polling shows how approval varies by age, race, education, and combinations of race and education. The model applies those patterns to local demographics, alongside previous presidential election results, to estimate differences between districts. State polls anchor the estimates to each state’s political environment, while states with less polling borrow information from broader national patterns.
The district estimates are then adjusted to align with the modeled statewide approval level. Recent polls receive more weight, and uncertainty ranges reflect variation in the polling and modeling assumptions. The 95% model ranges have not been calibrated against district-level surveys.
The history begins March 1, 2025. Reconstructed dates use poll fieldwork dates from a current polling snapshot and fixed district inputs, including later corrections. They can differ from the original dated snapshots. Daily releases extend the series as new estimates are published.
These are modeled estimates—not direct district polls. The approach follows the demographic logic of multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP), using published polling summaries rather than individual survey responses.