Laura Wakim Chapman leads Shawn Fluharty 48% to 43% with leaners in West Virginia Senate District 1, with 9% of likely voters still undecided.
Election
November 3, 2026
Field dates
September 28-29, 2026
Sample
884 likely voters
Margin of error
±3.3 percentage points
Chapman leads Fluharty with leaners
Laura Wakim Chapman leads Shawn Fluharty 48% to 43% after the leaner follow-up, with 9% undecided. Before the follow-up, the race stood at 45% to 41%, with 14% undecided.
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Laura Wakim Chapman (R)
45%
48%
Shawn Fluharty (D)
41%
43%
Don’t Know
14%
9%
Trump holds a narrow approval edge in SD-1
Forty-nine percent approve of Trump’s job performance and 47% disapprove. Thirty-two percent strongly approve, while 41% strongly disapprove.
Response
Value
Strongly approve
32%
Somewhat approve
17%
Somewhat disapprove
6%
Strongly disapprove
41%
Don’t Know
4%
Voters are divided on Morrisey
The separately printed topline shows 45% approve and 45% disapprove, with 11% having no opinion. The detailed responses below retain the source’s rounded shares.
Response
Value
Strongly approve
15%
Somewhat approve
29%
Somewhat disapprove
16%
Strongly disapprove
28%
Don’t Know
11%
A Morrisey endorsement is a net negative
Thirty-two percent say an endorsement from Morrisey would make them less likely to support a candidate, including 26% who say much less likely. Twenty-one percent say more likely; 47% say it would have no effect.
Response
Value
Much more likely
8%
Somewhat more likely
13%
No effect
47%
Somewhat less likely
6%
Much less likely
26%
The economy and cost of living lead voters’ concerns
The economy and cost of living are mentioned by 33% of respondents who answered the open-ended issue question, followed by candidate qualities and good governance at 14%. Responses can mention multiple issues.
Response
Value
Economy & Cost of Living
33%
Candidate Qualities & Good Governance
14%
Oppose Democrats/Support Republicans
9%
Oppose Republicans/Support Democrats
9%
Jobs & Labor
6%
Education
6%
Taxes
6%
Rights & Social Issues
5%
Infrastructure, Utilities & Roads
5%
Immigration
4%
Healthcare
4%
Data Centers, Tech & AI
4%
War & Foreign Policy
4%
Other
7%
No specific issue / unsure
7%
Live response map
Each dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its reported county. Dot positions are not respondents’ locations.
The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.
Chaz Nuttycombe on Fluharty's path
If Fluharty wins, call it an upset.
Laura Wakim Chapman leads Shawn Fluharty by 5 points with leaners (48% to 43%), and while Fluharty has a path to victory, it's a narrow one. Start with the most motivated voters: among likely voters who say they are definitely voting in November, 84% of our sample, the race tightens to 47% to 45%, but Chapman still holds the edge. Fluharty's coalition also looks close to its ceiling, as 89% of his supporters say they are definitely voting and 75% say they will definitely vote for him, compared with 63% of Chapman's supporters who say the same about her. That leaves the undecideds, just under 10% of likely voters, and they skew Republican. Only 16% recall voting for Kamala Harris in 2024, half of her 33% share districtwide, while 57% recall voting for Donald Trump. Democrats make up 35% of likely voters by party ID but just 25% of undecideds, while 46% of undecideds identify as Republicans; most look like Republican-leaning voters who simply haven't come home to Chapman yet. To reach a majority, Fluharty would need to win roughly three out of every four of them (assuming all of Chapman's current support doesn't waver). His path requires three things to go right at once: he has to peel off soft Chapman supporters, as 31% of her voters say they are only probably voting for her; he has to win most of the remaining undecideds, where his best opening is tying Chapman to Governor Morrisey (34% of undecideds approve of the Governor, 44% disapprove); and the less motivated voters in Chapman's camp have to stay home, since voters who say they are only probably voting back her 54% to 30%. Even if only the most motivated voters turn out, Fluharty would still need about 62% of the remaining undecideds. That's possible, but in a district where Chapman starts as the clear favorite, a Fluharty win would be an upset. With only around 118 undecided respondents, the undecided figures should be read as a directional signal rather than a firm conclusion.
State Navigate WV SD-1 poll, PDF page 10.
Chaz Nuttycombe on Trump's approval
Our poll and our model agree on Trump.
Donald Trump's job approval in our polling of West Virginia's State Senate districts lines up almost exactly with State Navigate's new interactive model of Trump's approval in every state legislative district in the country. In SD-8, our poll finds 45.2% of likely voters approve of the job Trump is doing and 52.0% disapprove, a net approval of -6.8; our model estimates -6.6. In SD-1, our poll has Trump at 49.2% approve and 47.3% disapprove, a net of +1.9, compared to +1.5 in our model. That's a difference of less than half a point in both districts, even though the model was built independently of these surveys: it applies the patterns from national and state polling going back to early 2025 to each district's demographics and past election results, using multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP). Two very different methods landing in the same place gives us confidence in both the model and our polling. It also lets us look back in time: given how closely the model matches our poll, we can say with a reasonable degree of certainty that Trump's net approval in SD-8 has been negative since June 30. You can explore Trump's approval in every West Virginia State Senate district at projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/us/trump-approval.
State Navigate WV SD-1 poll, PDF page 10.
Chaz Nuttycombe on independent turnout
Independents are the least likely to show up, and they lean Fluharty.
Registered independents and third-party registrants make up 20% of SD-1's electorate in our weighting targets, but only 18.5% once we account for how likely each respondent says they are to vote. Just 62% of independents say they are definitely voting in November, compared with 82% of Democrats and 77% of Republicans, and fewer than half have voted in all four of the last four general elections, compared with 61% of all likely voters. That matters for Fluharty: independents who do plan to vote back him 47% to 38% over Chapman, with 15% undecided. Something that may motivate them after our poll went in the field are the actual results of this survey: in our August survey of registered independents statewide, 39% said they'd be more likely to vote if they saw polls showing a close race in their district, the biggest motivator of any scenario we tested, and 51% of that group planned to vote for Democrats for state legislature, 11 points more than independents overall. With our poll showing Chapman ahead by just 5 points, SD-1 is exactly the kind of close race that could activate these voters, if they hear about it. There's a catch for Fluharty, though: his edge with independents comes from those who are already certain to vote, who back him 53% to 37%. Independents who say they are only probably voting or less lean the other way, favoring Chapman 41% to 29% with 30% undecided, and half of them identify as Republicans. That group is small, around 76 respondents, so the finding is directional, but it suggests that a close-race message could bring out Chapman-leaning independents as readily as Fluharty-leaning ones.
State Navigate WV SD-1 poll, PDF page 11.
Chaz Nuttycombe on geography
SD-1 is a Wheeling race.
Both candidates are from Wheeling, and Ohio County, which makes up 42% of the likely electorate, is where Fluharty is winning, 51% to 42%. In his own House district, HD-5, which covers most of the city of Wheeling, Fluharty leads by 12 points, 53% to 41%, which tracks closely with the 15-point margin he won re-election by there in 2024. That subsample is only around 170 respondents, though, with a margin of error of roughly 8 points, so it shouldn't be treated as a precise read of his home base. Outside of Ohio County, Chapman leads comfortably: she's ahead by 13 points in both Hancock and Brooke Counties and by 24 points among Marshall County voters. Fluharty's path runs through running up the margin in Wheeling while keeping his losses elsewhere in the Northern Panhandle close. Area codes tell a similar story about who's local: voters with a 304 area code are split almost evenly, 45% Fluharty to 46% Chapman, while voters with an out-of-state area code, about a fifth of the sample, favor Chapman by 22 points.
State Navigate WV SD-1 poll, PDF page 11.
Explore all results
Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.
2024 President
Response
Value
Trump (R)
69%
Harris (D)
30%
2024 Governor
Response
Value
Morrisey (R)
64%
Williams (D)
31%
2024 U.S. Senate
Response
Value
Justice (R)
66%
Elliott (D)
32%
2022 State Senate
Response
Value
Chapman (R)
60%
Swartzmiller (D)
40%
Party registration
Response
Value
Democrat
37.0%
Republican
44.5%
Independent / Other
18.5%
Party identification with leaners
Response
Value
Democrat
35%
Republican
56%
Neither
9%
Ideological self-identification
Response
Value
Progressives / Liberals
19%
Moderates / Center
27%
Conservatives
42%
Skipped / Don’t Know
12%
Age
Response
Value
18-29
4%
30-44
12%
45-64
33%
65 or older
51%
Education
Response
Value
Less than Bachelor’s
58%
Bachelor’s or higher
42%
Vote history in the last four general elections
Response
Value
4 of 4
61%
3 of 4
17%
2 of 4
11%
1 of 4
7%
0 of 4
4%
SD-1 with leaners
If the election for West Virginia State Senate District 1 were held today, which candidate would you vote for: Laura Wakim Chapman, the Republican of Wheeling, or Shawn Fluharty, the Democrat of Wheeling? (undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up)
Response
Value
Laura Wakim Chapman (R)
48%
Shawn Fluharty (D)
43%
Don’t Know
9%
SD-1 before undecided push
If the election for West Virginia State Senate District 1 were held today, which candidate would you vote for: Laura Wakim Chapman, the Republican of Wheeling, or Shawn Fluharty, the Democrat of Wheeling? (initial ballot, before leaner follow-up)
Response
Value
Laura Wakim Chapman (R)
45%
Shawn Fluharty (D)
41%
Don’t Know
14%
2024 presidential vote recall
In the 2024 presidential election, which candidate did you vote for?
Response
Value
Trump (R)
57%
Harris (D)
33%
Third party
4%
Did not vote
5%
No response
2%
Planned vote method
If you choose to vote in the 2026 general election, how would you cast your vote?
Response
Value
Election day
71%
Early in-person
26%
By mail
3%
President Trump job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Approve
49%
Disapprove
47%
Don’t Know
4%
President Trump job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Strongly approve
32%
Somewhat approve
17%
Somewhat disapprove
6%
Strongly disapprove
41%
Don’t Know
4%
Gov. Morrisey job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Patrick Morrisey is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Approve
45%
Disapprove
45%
Don’t Know
11%
Gov. Morrisey job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Patrick Morrisey is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Strongly approve
15%
Somewhat approve
29%
Somewhat disapprove
16%
Strongly disapprove
28%
Don’t Know
11%
Morrisey endorsement effect
If Governor Morrisey endorsed a candidate in the general election, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate?
Response
Value
More likely
21%
No effect
47%
Less likely
32%
Morrisey endorsement in detail
If Governor Morrisey endorsed a candidate in the general election, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate?
Response
Value
Much more likely
8%
Somewhat more likely
13%
No effect
47%
Somewhat less likely
6%
Much less likely
26%
Endorsement effect by SD-1 vote choice
Endorsement effect by vote choice with leaners.
Response
Much more likely
Somewhat more likely
No effect
Somewhat less likely
Much less likely
Fluharty (D) voters (n=378)
Not labeled in PDF
Not labeled in PDF
35%
9%
54%
Chapman (R) voters (n=422)
14%
26%
52%
5%
Not labeled in PDF
Undecided (n=84)
5%
Not labeled in PDF
75%
Not labeled in PDF
15%
Issues in respondents’ words
Prominent words from the source word cloud, shown at equal size. Word frequencies are not supplied; the coded issue chart shows weighted percentages.
Words in the source illustration
Economy
Taxes
Trump
Republican
Data Centers
Immigration
Healthcare
Education
Jobs
Inflation
Prices
Affordability
Cost of Living
Roads
Gas Prices
Government
Water
Rights
Food
Support
Tax
Money
Security
Democrat
Issues impacting vote choice
If you choose to vote in November, what is the number one issue that will impact who you vote for?
Response
Value
Economy & Cost of Living
33%
Candidate Qualities & Good Governance
14%
Oppose Democrats/Support Republicans
9%
Oppose Republicans/Support Democrats
9%
Jobs & Labor
6%
Education
6%
Taxes
6%
Rights & Social Issues
5%
Infrastructure, Utilities & Roads
5%
Immigration
4%
Healthcare
4%
Data Centers, Tech & AI
4%
War & Foreign Policy
4%
Other
7%
No specific issue / unsure
7%
Average ideology by voter group
Response
Value
Shawn Fluharty voters (D)
6.3 on a 0-10 scale
All voters
4.2 on a 0-10 scale
Undecided SD-1 voters
4.1 on a 0-10 scale
Laura Wakim Chapman voters (R)
2.5 on a 0-10 scale
Detailed ideological self-placement
Response
Value
10. Democratic Socialist
3%
9. Extremely Progressive/Liberal
3%
8. Very Progressive/Liberal
5%
7. Progressive/Liberal
8%
6. Center-left
8%
5. Moderate / Centrist
13%
4. Center-right
7%
3. Conservative
18%
2. Very Conservative
12%
1. Extremely Conservative
8%
0. Far Right
4%
Skipped / Don’t Know
12%
House district shares of the weighted sample
Response
Value
HD-1
19.7%
HD-2
16.4%
HD-3
17.0%
HD-4
21.8%
HD-5
16.7%
HD-6
2.5%
HD-7
5.9%
SD-1 by House district
Response
Value
HD-1
19.7%
HD-2
16.4%
HD-3
17.0%
HD-4
21.8%
HD-5
16.7%
HD-6
2.5%
HD-7
5.9%
How the survey was conducted
State Navigate surveyed 884 likely voters in West Virginia's 1st State Senate District from September 28-29, 2026. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by i360 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and State House district to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 3.3% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.
