Wheeler leads Hundley as Morrisey faces deep disapproval in SD-8

Lance Wheeler leads Kim Hundley 46% to 40% with leaners in West Virginia Senate District 8, while Governor Patrick Morrisey’s job approval stands at 31%.

Election: November 3, 2026
Field dates: September 30-October 1, 2026
Sample: 837 likely voters
Margin of error: ±3.4 percentage points

Wheeler leads Hundley with leaners

Lance Wheeler leads Kim Hundley 46% to 40% after the leaner follow-up, with 14% undecided. Before the follow-up, the race stood at 43% to 37%, with 19% undecided.

Response	Initial ballot	With leaners
Lance Wheeler (R)	43%	46%
Kim Hundley (D)	37%	40%
Don’t Know	19%	14%

Trump faces more disapproval than approval in SD-8

Forty-five percent approve of Trump’s job performance and 52% disapprove. Strongly held disapproval accounts for 46% of likely voters.

Response	Value
Strongly approve	29%
Somewhat approve	16%
Somewhat disapprove	6%
Strongly disapprove	46%
Don’t Know	3%

Morrisey’s approval stands at 31%

Sixty-one percent disapprove of Governor Patrick Morrisey’s performance, including 41% who strongly disapprove. Thirty-one percent approve and 8% have no opinion.

Response	Value
Strongly approve	8%
Somewhat approve	23%
Somewhat disapprove	20%
Strongly disapprove	41%
Don’t Know	8%

A Morrisey endorsement is a net negative

Forty-five percent say an endorsement from Morrisey would make them less likely to support a candidate, including 36% who say much less likely. Sixteen percent say more likely; 40% say it would have no effect.

Response	Value
Much more likely	6%
Somewhat more likely	10%
No effect	40%
Somewhat less likely	9%
Much less likely	36%

The economy and cost of living lead voters’ concerns

The economy and cost of living are mentioned by 32% of respondents who answered the open-ended issue question, followed by candidate qualities and good governance at 16%. Responses can mention multiple issues.

Response	Value
Economy & Cost of Living	32%
Candidate Qualities & Good Governance	16%
Oppose Republicans/Support Democrats	10%
Infrastructure, Utilities & Roads	8%
Rights & Social Issues	8%
Data Centers, Tech & AI	7%
Oppose Democrats/Support Republicans	7%
Jobs & Labor	6%
Taxes	5%
Healthcare	5%
Education	5%
Immigration	4%
War & Foreign Policy	3%
Other	6%
No specific issue / unsure	7%

Live response map

Each dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its reported county. Dot positions are not respondents’ locations.

Open the live poll

Team notes and analysis

The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping this race.

Chaz Nuttycombe on crossover voting

Hundley is running like a generic Democrat.

In our recent poll of State Senate District 1 in the Northern Panhandle, Democrat Shawn Fluharty is winning 12% of voters who recall backing Donald Trump in 2024, which is a big reason that race is within 5 points. Kim Hundley isn't getting that kind of crossover in SD-8: she wins just 5% of Trump voters, while Lance Wheeler wins 80% of them, with 14% undecided. Among voters who approve of the job Trump is doing, Hundley gets only 3%. Her 40% share of the vote with leaners is barely ahead of the 38% of likely voters who recall voting for Kamala Harris, and Wheeler is pulling about as many Harris voters (5%) as Hundley is pulling Trump voters. In a district Trump carried by 27 points, Hundley needs Republican crossover to win, and so far she is running as a generic Democrat.

State Navigate WV SD-8 poll, PDF page 10.

Chaz Nuttycombe on the Morrisey endorsement

A Morrisey endorsement would be toxic in SD-8.

Governor Morrisey is deeply unpopular in SD-8, with 31% of likely voters approving of his job performance and 61% disapproving, and voters say his endorsement would hurt rather than help: 45% say it would make them less likely to support a candidate, including 36% who say much less likely, compared to just 16% who say more likely. That matters because the voters it would push away are exactly the ones Hundley needs. If Hundley won every Wheeler supporter and every undecided voter who says a Morrisey endorsement would make them much less likely to back a candidate, she would rise from 40% to roughly 48% of the vote, within striking distance of a majority. Among undecided voters alone, 26% say a Morrisey endorsement would make them much less likely to support a candidate, while just 1% say much more likely. Wheeler would be wise to keep his distance from the Governor; Hundley's best path runs through tying Wheeler to him.

State Navigate WV SD-8 poll, PDF page 10.

Chaz Nuttycombe on undecided voters

The undecideds lean Republican on paper, but they're souring on Republican leadership.

14% of likely voters remain fully undecided after pushing leaners. By their past votes, they lean Republican: 53% recall voting for Trump in 2024, the same as the district overall, while just 25% recall voting for Harris, compared to 38% districtwide. They are also far less partisan than the rest of the electorate, as 30% identify with neither party, compared to 9% overall, and they are split nearly evenly in thirds by party registration. But their views of Republican leadership cut the other way: just 37% approve of Trump while 52% disapprove, and only 26% approve of Morrisey while 56% disapprove. If undecideds break the way decided voters with the same 2024 vote are breaking, Wheeler would win roughly 54% to 46%; if they break along party identification instead, the race tightens to about 53% to 47%. Either way, Hundley would need to win roughly 72% of undecided voters to overtake Wheeler, a tall order for a group that backed Trump over Harris by more than 2-to-1. With only around 160 undecided respondents, these numbers should be read as a directional signal rather than a firm conclusion.

State Navigate WV SD-8 poll, PDF page 10.

Chaz Nuttycombe on Trump's approval

Our poll and our model agree on Trump.

Donald Trump's job approval in our polling of West Virginia's State Senate districts lines up almost exactly with State Navigate's new interactive model of Trump's approval in every state legislative district in the country. In SD-8, our poll finds 45.2% of likely voters approve of the job Trump is doing and 52.0% disapprove, a net approval of -6.8; our model estimates -6.6. In SD-1, our poll has Trump at 49.2% approve and 47.3% disapprove, a net of +1.9, compared to +1.5 in our model. That's a difference of less than half a point in both districts, even though the model was built independently of these surveys: it applies the patterns from national and state polling going back to early 2025 to each district's demographics and past election results, using multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP). Two very different methods landing in the same place gives us confidence in both the model and our polling. It also lets us look back in time: given how closely the model matches our poll, we can say with a reasonable degree of certainty that Trump's net approval in SD-8 has been negative since June 30. You can explore Trump's approval in every West Virginia State Senate district at projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/us/trump-approval.

State Navigate WV SD-8 poll, PDF page 11.

Explore all results

Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.

2024 President

Response	Value
Trump (R)	63%
Harris (D)	35%

2024 Governor

Response	Value
Morrisey (R)	52%
Williams (D)	41%

2024 U.S. Senate

Response	Value
Justice (R)	63%
Elliott (D)	34%

2022 State Senate

Response	Value
Hunt (R)	57%
Lindsay (D)	43%

Party registration

Response	Value
Democrat	39.1%
Republican	42.7%
Independent / Other	18.2%

Party identification with leaners

Response	Value
Democrat	41%
Republican	50%
Neither	9%

Ideological self-identification

Response	Value
Progressives / Liberals	23%
Moderates / Center	27%
Conservatives	39%
Skipped / Don’t Know	11%

Age

Response	Value
18-29	4%
30-44	13%
45-64	34%
65 or older	48%

Education

Response	Value
Less than Bachelor’s	61%
Bachelor’s or higher	39%

Vote history in the last four general elections

Response	Value
4 of 4	61%
3 of 4	19%
2 of 4	11%
1 of 4	6%
0 of 4	4%

SD-8 with leaners

If the election for West Virginia State Senate District 8 were held today, which candidate would you vote for: Lance Wheeler, the Republican of Charleston, Kanawha Co., or Kim Hundley, the Democrat of Charleston, Kanawha Co.? (undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up)

Response	Value
Lance Wheeler (R)	46%
Kim Hundley (D)	40%
Don’t Know	14%

SD-8 before undecided push

Response	Value
Lance Wheeler (R)	43%
Kim Hundley (D)	37%
Don’t Know	19%

2024 presidential vote recall

In the 2024 presidential election, which candidate did you vote for?

Response	Value
Trump (R)	52%
Harris (D)	38%
Third party	3%
Did not vote	5%
No response	2%

Planned vote method

If you choose to vote in the 2026 general election, how would you cast your vote?

Response	Value
Election day	59%
Early in-person	37%
By mail	4%

President Trump job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

Response	Value
Approve	45%
Disapprove	52%
Don’t Know	3%

President Trump job approval in detail

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

Response	Value
Strongly approve	29%
Somewhat approve	16%
Somewhat disapprove	6%
Strongly disapprove	46%
Don’t Know	3%

Gov. Morrisey job approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Patrick Morrisey is doing as Governor?

Response	Value
Approve	31%
Disapprove	61%
Don’t Know	8%

Gov. Morrisey job approval in detail

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Patrick Morrisey is doing as Governor?

Response	Value
Strongly approve	8%
Somewhat approve	23%
Somewhat disapprove	20%
Strongly disapprove	41%
Don’t Know	8%

Morrisey endorsement effect

If Governor Morrisey endorsed a candidate in the general election, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate?

Response	Value
More likely	16%
No effect	40%
Less likely	45%

Morrisey endorsement in detail

If Governor Morrisey endorsed a candidate in the general election, would that make you more or less likely to vote for that candidate?

Response	Value
Much more likely	6%
Somewhat more likely	10%
No effect	40%
Somewhat less likely	9%
Much less likely	36%

Endorsement effect by SD-8 vote choice

Endorsement effect by vote choice with leaners.

Response	Much more likely	Somewhat more likely	No effect	Somewhat less likely	Much less likely
Hundley (D) voters (n=333)	Not labeled in PDF	Not labeled in PDF	24%	6%	68%
Wheeler (R) voters (n=385)	11%	20%	48%	10%	10%
Undecided (n=119)	Not labeled in PDF	Not labeled in PDF	56%	13%	26%

Issues in respondents’ words

Prominent words from the source word cloud, shown at equal size. Word frequencies are not supplied; the coded issue chart shows weighted percentages.

Words in the source illustration
Economy
Data Centers
Healthcare
Education
Taxes
Republican
Trump
Cost of Living
Jobs
Rights
Roads
Gas Prices
Water
Government
Prices
Honesty
Food
Public
Immigration
Support
War
Tax
Party
Affordability

Issues impacting vote choice

If you choose to vote in November, what is the number one issue that will impact who you vote for?

Response	Value
Economy & Cost of Living	32%
Candidate Qualities & Good Governance	16%
Oppose Republicans/Support Democrats	10%
Infrastructure, Utilities & Roads	8%
Rights & Social Issues	8%
Data Centers, Tech & AI	7%
Oppose Democrats/Support Republicans	7%
Jobs & Labor	6%
Taxes	5%
Healthcare	5%
Education	5%
Immigration	4%
War & Foreign Policy	3%
Other	6%
No specific issue / unsure	7%

Average ideology by voter group

Response	Value
Kim Hundley voters (D)	7 on a 0-10 scale
All voters	4.5 on a 0-10 scale
Undecided SD-8 voters	4.3 on a 0-10 scale
Lance Wheeler voters (R)	2.4 on a 0-10 scale

Detailed ideological self-placement

Response	Value
10. Democratic Socialist	6%
9. Extremely Progressive/Liberal	4%
8. Very Progressive/Liberal	5%
7. Progressive/Liberal	8%
6. Center-left	9%
5. Moderate / Centrist	12%
4. Center-right	5%
3. Conservative	15%
2. Very Conservative	12%
1. Extremely Conservative	7%
0. Far Right	6%
Skipped / Don’t Know	11%

House district shares of the weighted sample

Response	Value
HD-15	13.1%
HD-16	9.5%
HD-19	16.7%
HD-53	5.7%
HD-54	17.1%
HD-57	3.6%
HD-58	4.2%
HD-59	15.0%
HD-60	7.0%
HD-62	8.1%

SD-8 by House district

Response	Value
HD-15	13.1%
HD-16	9.5%
HD-19	16.7%
HD-53	5.7%
HD-54	17.1%
HD-57	3.6%
HD-58	4.2%
HD-59	15.0%
HD-60	7.0%
HD-62	8.1%

How the survey was conducted

State Navigate surveyed 837 likely voters in West Virginia's 8th State Senate District from September 30-October 1, 2026. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by i360 and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, party registration, and State House district to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate. The margin of error is 3.4% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.

Download the complete poll briefing (PDF)

Wheeler leads Hundley as Morrisey faces deep disapproval in SD-8

Wheeler leads Hundley with leaners

Trump faces more disapproval than approval in SD-8

Morrisey’s approval stands at 31%

A Morrisey endorsement is a net negative

The economy and cost of living lead voters’ concerns

Candidate

Voting likelihood

Hundley is running like a generic Democrat.

A Morrisey endorsement would be toxic in SD-8.

The undecideds lean Republican on paper, but they're souring on Republican leadership.

Our poll and our model agree on Trump.

2024 President

2024 Governor

2024 U.S. Senate

2022 State Senate

Party registration

Party identification with leaners

Ideological self-identification

Age

Education

Vote history in the last four general elections

SD-8 with leaners

SD-8 before undecided push

2024 presidential vote recall

Planned vote method

President Trump job approval

President Trump job approval in detail

Gov. Morrisey job approval

Gov. Morrisey job approval in detail

Morrisey endorsement effect

Morrisey endorsement in detail

Endorsement effect by SD-8 vote choice

Issues in respondents’ words

Issues impacting vote choice

Average ideology by voter group

Detailed ideological self-placement

House district shares of the weighted sample

SD-8 by House district