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National forecast

Follow the fight for power across the statehouses State Navigate is forecasting - from the seats nearest the line to the districts that most often decide control.

— state legislative seats forecasted
— D pickups — R pickups

The 2026 statehouse battlefield

The national view combines every current 2026 State Navigate legislative forecast with the modeled government-control paths for states where all three pieces are available.

States
—
with a current 2026 model
Chambers
—
included in this view
Close seats
—
within 5 projected points
Projected flips
—
where the modeled leader changes the seat's party

State of the States

Each square shows the most likely modeled outcome for state government. Darker colors mean higher odds. Hover or focus a state for its odds; select a state with a forecast to open that forecast.

Democratic trifecta Divided or tied Republican trifecta No forecast
Forecasted state-government outcomes A square-tile map of all 50 states. Modeled states are colored by their most likely state-government outcome.

Closest Seats

Every dot is a district within 20 projected points. Diamonds mark a projected party flip; the shaded center holds races within 5 points.

Democratic lead Republican lead Projected flip
Projected margin for competitive state legislative seats Districts are plotted from Democratic margin on the left to Republican margin on the right. Projected flips use diamond markers.

Swipe to explore the full margin range.

Loading competitive districts…

  1. Finding the seats nearest an even race…

Projected flips

Seats where the current model leader would change the party or caucus now holding the seat.

  1. Comparing modeled leaders with the party now holding each seat…

Biggest changes

Chambers are ranked by net seat change as a percentage of the full chamber. The dashed line is the current split and the solid line is the projection.

  1. Measuring chamber movement…