Skip to the national forecast
Donate

National forecast

Follow the fight for power across State Navigate forecasts - from the seats nearest the line to the districts that most often decide control.

— state legislative seats forecasted
— D pickups — R pickups

Forecasted Population Representation

Estimate based on State Navigate forecasts and 2020 population figures on what percent of the population is expected to be represented by each party in each level of state government.

Loading population estimates…

Projected net flips over time

Projected Democratic seat gains minus losses, tracked daily. Blue shows gains; red shows losses.

Loading daily observations…

State of the States

Each square shows the most likely modeled outcome for state government. Darker colors mean higher odds. Hover or focus a state for its odds; select a state with a forecast to open that forecast. In Alaska, Democratic control means a Democratic governor and coalition majorities in both chambers.

Democratic trifecta Divided or tied Republican trifecta No forecast
Forecasted state-government outcomes A square-tile map of all 50 states. Modeled states are colored by their most likely state-government outcome.

Forecasted changes in power

Changes the model favors to happen, compared with current control. Supermajorities use each chamber forecast’s seat threshold.

Trifectas and unified control created

Chance

    Trifectas and unified control broken

    Chance

      Supermajorities created

      Chance

        Supermajorities broken

        Chance

          Closest Seats

          Every dot is a district within 20 projected points. Diamonds mark a projected caucus flip; the shaded center holds races within 5 points.

          Democratic lead Republican lead Projected flip
          Projected margin for competitive state legislative seats Districts are plotted from Democratic margin on the left to Republican margin on the right. Projected flips use diamond markers.

          Swipe to explore the full margin range.

          Loading competitive districts…

          1. Finding the seats nearest an even race…

          Projected flips

          Seats where the current model leader would change the party or caucus now holding the seat.

          1. Comparing modeled leaders with the caucus now holding each seat…

          Coalition shifts

          All 50 states, ranked by their largest House or Senate coalition-share shift. Boxes show current → projected coalition seats. D/R include aligned independents; Other means no D/R coalition is assigned in the forecast. Select a chamber for details.

          1. Measuring chamber movement…