Forecast simulator
Change the political environment. Explore 10,000 simulated outcomes for governors, legislative seats, and control of state government.
National forecastProbabilities are scenario estimates from a simplified model. They can differ from the official forecast.
National generic ballot
The national picture
Select a state to inspect its scenario and adjust its forecast.
State adjustments
This statewide shift adds to the national swing.
Demographic shifts
Change each group’s partisan preference nationally. District composition determines how much its forecast moves.
Turnout stays fixed. Population shares approximate voters; education shares use white adults age 25+. Switching groups keeps your other adjustments.
Every chamber
Explore your projected seats by state and chamber.
| State / chamber | Your scenario |
|---|
Quick projection counts the winners at the adjusted margins. The 10,000-simulation option estimates win and control probabilities using shared national and state uncertainty, plus district and seat variation. These are simplified scenario estimates; they can differ from the official forecast. Expected seats can differ from the count of projected winners.