Alaska
Democrats lead the governor scenarios.
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is projected to get 48.7% of first-choice votes and wins 87% of modeled scenarios.
Bernadette Wilson is projected to get 23.0% of first-choice votes and wins 12% of modeled scenarios.
Dave Bronson is projected to get 14.9% of first-choice votes and wins 1% of modeled scenarios.
Treg Taylor is projected to get 13.4% of first-choice votes and wins <1% of modeled scenarios.
How the race has evolved
Follow each candidate's win probability over time.
90% confidence interval
What public polls are saying
Review the public polling inputs informing the current statewide forecast.
House district outlook
Compare projected first-choice votes across Alaska's 40 House districts. District estimates use primary voting patterns and are adjusted to match the statewide forecast; map colors show the combined Republican–Democratic margin.