Arkansas
Republicans are virtually certain to win the race for Governor.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders is projected to get 57.5% of the vote and has a >99% chance of winning.
Fred Love is projected to get 37.5% of the vote and has a <1% chance of winning.
Colt Shelby is projected to get 5.0% of the vote and has a <1% chance of winning.
How the race has evolved
Follow the statewide race's projected margin and win probability from the beginning of the cycle through the latest run.
90% confidence interval
What public polls are saying
Review the public polling inputs informing the current statewide forecast.
County-by-county outlook
Compare the model's projected margin across every county or independent city.