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Virginia

Explore the latest statewide forecast, projected vote, and public polling.

Democrats are virtually certain to win the race for Governor.

Abigail Spanberger is projected to get 55.6% of the vote and has a 98% chance of winning.

Winsome Earle-Sears is projected to get 44.4% of the vote and has a 2% chance of winning.

How the race has evolved

Follow the statewide race's projected margin and win probability from the beginning of the cycle through the latest run.

90% confidence interval

What public polls are saying

Review the public polling inputs informing the current statewide forecast.

County-by-county outlook

Compare the model's projected margin across every county or independent city.