Scott narrowly leads Janoo as Gray opens a wide lead
Vermont’s Governor and Lieutenant Governor races tell different stories. Phil Scott leads Amanda Janoo 46% to 43% with leaners, while Molly Gray leads John S. Rodgers 59% to 32%.
Election
November 3, 2026
Field dates
October 2-4, 2026
Sample
948 likely voters
Margin of error
±3.2 percentage points
A close race for Governor
Scott leads Janoo 46% to 43% after the leaner follow-up. Eight percent remain undecided, and 4% support Brian Judd, June Goodband, or Dean Roy combined. The initial ballot was 43% Scott and 41% Janoo, with 14% undecided.
Response
Value
Phil Scott (R)
46%
Amanda Janoo (D/P)
43%
Other candidates
4%
Don’t Know
8%
Gray’s lead grows with leaners
Molly Gray leads John S. Rodgers by 27 points, 59% to 32%, with 9% undecided. Before the leaner follow-up, Gray led 56% to 30%. The initial ballot had 15% undecided.
Response
Initial ballot
With leaners
Molly Gray (D)
56%
59%
John S. Rodgers (R)
30%
32%
Don’t Know
15%
9%
Scott’s approval exceeds his vote share
Fifty-seven percent approve of Scott’s job performance, including 35% who somewhat approve. His 46% ballot support is lower. Thirty-seven percent disapprove, while 6% have no opinion.
Response
Value
Strongly approve
22%
Somewhat approve
35%
Somewhat disapprove
23%
Strongly disapprove
14%
Don’t Know
6%
One-third of Scott voters back Gray
Among Scott supporters, 33% choose Democrat Molly Gray for Lieutenant Governor and 59% choose Republican John S. Rodgers. These are reported preferences within the same survey, with both ballots including leaners.
Response
Gray (D)
Rodgers (R)
Undecided
Scott voters (n=435)
33%
59%
8%
Janoo voters (n=406)
94%
Not labeled in PDF
Not labeled in PDF
Undecided for Governor (n=74)
28%
21%
52%
Some of Scott’s former voters still approve of him
Among voters who recall backing Scott in 2024 and now support Janoo, 40% still approve of Scott’s job performance. That is below 57% among all likely voters. This subgroup includes 226 respondents and represents about 21% of likely voters.
Response
Scott 2024 to Janoo 2026
All likely voters
Approve
40%
57%
Disapprove
54%
37%
Don’t know
6%
6%
The Legislature faces more disapproval than approval
The Legislature’s topline is 38% approve and 49% disapprove. Just 3% strongly approve. Scott voters are especially critical: 64% disapprove, compared with 32% of Janoo voters.
Response
Value
Strongly approve
3%
Somewhat approve
35%
Somewhat disapprove
25%
Strongly disapprove
24%
Don’t Know
13%
Live response map
Each dot is one unweighted response, placed illustratively within its reported municipality. Dot positions are not respondents’ locations.
The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping these races.
Chaz Nuttycombe on ticket-splitting
A third of Scott voters are backing a Democrat for Lieutenant Governor.
Molly Gray is running nearly 17 points ahead of Amanda Janoo (59% to 43%), and the reason is ticket-splitting: 33% of Phil Scott's supporters plan to vote for Gray for Lieutenant Governor, which works out to about one in seven likely voters statewide. These Scott-Gray voters are overwhelmingly Democrats (76%) who strongly disapprove of Donald Trump (91%); they like Scott, but they haven't left their party. That's a dramatic reversal from 2024, when Republican John S. Rodgers won the Lieutenant Governor's race by less than two points. He now trails Gray by 28.
State Navigate Vermont statewide poll, PDF page 14. The analysis says “nearly 17 points”; the displayed rounded shares, 59% and 43%, differ by 16 points. It describes Gray’s lead over Rodgers as 28 points, while the displayed rounded shares, 59% and 32%, differ by 27 points.
Chaz Nuttycombe on Scott's approval
Liking the Governor isn't the same as voting for him.
Phil Scott remains well liked: 57% of likely voters approve of the job he is doing. But only 46% plan to vote for him. One in five voters who approve of Scott (20%) are voting for Janoo, and that rises to 31% among those who only somewhat approve. For many of these voters, the issue isn't Scott's performance but his tenure: among voters who disapprove of Scott, the most common reason they give is that he has been ineffective or that it is time for a change (31%).
State Navigate Vermont statewide poll, PDF page 14.
Chaz Nuttycombe on Scott's lost voters
Scott's 2024 crossover Democrats are coming home.
About 30% of voters who recall backing Phil Scott in 2024 now support Amanda Janoo, and they make up about half of Janoo's coalition, roughly 21% of likely voters. These aren't disillusioned Republicans: 88% identify as Democrats, 92% recall voting for Kamala Harris, and 96% strongly disapprove of Donald Trump. Their views of Scott are lukewarm rather than hostile: 40% approve of the job he is doing and 54% disapprove, but just 2% strongly approve and only 13% strongly disapprove. Those who still approve credit his moderation and bipartisanship (28%), his honesty and character (22%), and his competence (19%); just 4% call him a check on the Democratic Legislature, the most common reason among all Scott approvers (23%). Those who disapprove most often say he has been ineffective or that it's time for a change (38%), followed by taxes and the cost of living (30%) and education and school consolidation (25%). And unlike Scott's own voters, they like the Legislature: 53% approve of the job it is doing and 33% disapprove, while just 28% of voters sticking with Scott approve. Scott's argument against the Legislature doesn't land with this group, which could make them hard to win back. The full breakdown is on page 11.
State Navigate Vermont statewide poll, PDF page 14.
Chaz Nuttycombe on the legislature
Scott's best argument is the Legislature.
When we asked Scott's approvers why they approve, the most common answers were that he is a check on the Democratic Legislature (23%) and that he governs with competence and common sense (23%), followed by fiscal restraint and taxes (21%). That argument has an audience: the Legislature is underwater with likely voters (38% approve, 49% disapprove), and Scott's own voters disapprove of it by more than two to one (64% to 28%). Scott's case for another term is as much about what the Legislature would do without him as it is about his own record.
State Navigate Vermont statewide poll, PDF page 15.
Chaz Nuttycombe on the third-party candidates
The third-party candidates are a bigger problem for Scott than for Janoo.
Together, Brian Judd, June Goodband, and Dean Roy win about 4% of likely voters, a bit more than Phil Scott's 3-point lead over Amanda Janoo. But they aren't playing spoiler for Janoo. Their voters lean right overall: 54% recall voting for Donald Trump in 2024 and 37% for Kamala Harris, and 44% identify as Republicans compared to 37% as Democrats. Judd, the strongest of the three, is drawing mostly Trump voters who are unhappy with Scott: 83% of his supporters recall voting for Trump, 76% identify as Republicans, and 70% back Republican John S. Rodgers for Lieutenant Governor. Goodband is the only one pulling from Janoo's side of the electorate, with nearly all of her supporters recalling a Harris vote, but she wins only about 1% of likely voters. If these voters broke the same way as decided voters with the same 2024 presidential vote, Scott's lead would grow from about 3 points to about 4. Their support is also soft, as just 22% say they will definitely vote for their candidate. With fewer than 40 respondents backing these candidates, and fewer than 20 for any one of them, these figures should be read as directional.
State Navigate Vermont statewide poll, PDF page 15.
Chaz Nuttycombe on young voters
Our youngest respondents may not be telling the whole story.
Voters under 30 are the most scattered group in the Governor's race. Amanda Janoo leads Phil Scott just 41% to 35% among them, and 16% back one of the third-party candidates, compared to 3% or less in every other age group. That's an unusual result: Scott wins 49% of voters ages 45 to 64 and 51% of voters 65 and older, but just 32% of voters ages 30 to 44, where Janoo leads with 59%. If younger voters follow the usual pattern, Scott should be doing no better with voters under 30 than he is with voters in their 30s and early 40s, and probably worse. Instead, our under-30 respondents look less Democratic than the next age group up: 55% identify as Democrats compared to 62% of voters ages 30 to 44, and 58% recall voting for Kamala Harris in 2024 compared to 65%. They also appear less engaged: 24% have no opinion of the job Scott is doing, compared to between 3% and 6% in every other age group. That raises the possibility of non-response bias, with young Democratic voters less likely to take our survey than young voters who are more independent or Republican-leaning. Weighting corrects for how many young voters are in our sample, but not for which young voters chose to respond. If voters under 30 actually voted like those ages 30 to 44, Scott's lead would shrink by a little more than a point. With only about 60 respondents under 30, these figures should be read as directional.
State Navigate Vermont statewide poll, PDF page 15.
Chaz Nuttycombe on undecided voters
The undecideds are truly up for grabs.
About 8% of likely voters are still undecided in the Governor's race, and they are hard to read. On paper, they lean more Republican than the electorate as a whole: 48% identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared to 58% of all likely voters, and 53% recall voting for Kamala Harris in 2024, compared to 65% overall, while 36% recall voting for Donald Trump, compared to 29% overall. But they are also far cooler on Phil Scott than the rest of the electorate: just 30% approve of the job he is doing and 43% disapprove, compared to 57% approval and 37% disapproval statewide, and only 60% recall voting for Scott in 2024, compared to 72% of all likely voters. They are also much more independent, with 22% identifying with neither party compared to 12% overall, and half are undecided in the Lieutenant Governor's race as well. These voters don't fit neatly into either campaign's coalition, and either candidate could win them over. With fewer than 100 undecided respondents, these figures should be read as directional.
State Navigate Vermont statewide poll, PDF page 16.
Explore all results
Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.
2024 Governor
Response
Value
Scott (R)
73%
Charlestin (D)
22%
2024 Lieutenant Governor
Response
Value
Rodgers (R)
49%
Zuckerman (P/D)
47%
2022 Governor
Response
Value
Scott (R)
71%
Siegel (D)
24%
2020 Lieutenant Governor
Response
Value
Gray (D)
51%
Milne (R)
44%
Party identification with leaners
Response
Value
Democrat
58%
Republican
29%
Neither
12%
Ideological self-identification
Response
Value
Progressives / Liberals
37%
Moderates / Center
36%
Conservatives
21%
Skipped / Don’t Know
7%
Age
Response
Value
18-29
7%
30-44
20%
45-64
32%
65 or older
41%
Education
Response
Value
Less than Bachelor’s
53%
Bachelor’s or higher
47%
Vote history in the last four general elections
Response
Value
4 of 4
54%
3 of 4
19%
2 of 4
12%
1 of 4
10%
0 of 4
6%
2024 presidential vote recall
Response
Value
Kamala Harris (D)
64.5%
Donald Trump (R)
28.7%
Third party
4.1%
Did Not Vote / No Response
2.7%
Governor with leaners
If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up; includes voters who already cast a ballot)
Response
Value
Phil Scott (R)
46%
Amanda Janoo (D/P)
43%
Other candidates
4%
Don’t Know
8%
Governor before undecided push
If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (initial ballot, before leaner follow-up)
Response
Value
Phil Scott (R)
43%
Amanda Janoo (D/P)
41%
Other candidates
2%
Don’t Know
14%
Lieutenant Governor with leaners
If the election for Lieutenant Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (undecideds allocated via leaner follow-up)
Response
Value
Molly Gray (D)
59%
John S. Rodgers (R)
32%
Don’t Know
9%
Lieutenant Governor before undecided push
If the election for Lieutenant Governor were held today, which candidate would you vote for? (initial ballot, before leaner follow-up)
Response
Value
Molly Gray (D)
56%
John S. Rodgers (R)
30%
Don’t Know
15%
President Trump job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Approve
26%
Disapprove
72%
Don’t Know
2%
President Trump job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Response
Value
Strongly approve
15%
Somewhat approve
10%
Somewhat disapprove
5%
Strongly disapprove
68%
Don’t Know
2%
Gov. Scott job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Phil Scott is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Approve
57%
Disapprove
37%
Don’t Know
6%
Gov. Scott job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Phil Scott is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Strongly approve
22%
Somewhat approve
35%
Somewhat disapprove
23%
Strongly disapprove
14%
Don’t Know
6%
State Legislature job approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Vermont State Legislature is doing?
Response
Value
Approve
38%
Disapprove
49%
Don’t Know
13%
State Legislature job approval in detail
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Vermont State Legislature is doing?
Response
Value
Strongly approve
3%
Somewhat approve
35%
Somewhat disapprove
25%
Strongly disapprove
24%
Don’t Know
13%
Legislative approval by Governor vote
Response
Approve
Disapprove
Don’t Know
Scott voters (n=435)
28%
64%
8%
Janoo voters (n=406)
52%
32%
16%
Undecided (n=74)
22%
50%
28%
Why voters approve of Gov. Scott in respondents’ words
Words in the source illustration
Taxes
Moderate
Sense
Common
Republican
Democrats
Good
Keep
Balance
Trump
Best
Cares
Honest
Fair
Working
Progressive
Affordable
Spending
Property
Reasonable
Decisions
Policies
Education
Why voters approve of Gov. Scott
In at least one word, why do you approve of the job Phil Scott is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Checks the Democratic Legislature
23%
Competence & Common Sense
23%
Fiscal Restraint & Taxes
21%
Moderate & Bipartisan
17%
Honesty & Character
14%
Looks Out for Vermonters
12%
Partisan: Republican / Not a Democrat
10%
Independent of Trump
5%
Other Policy
5%
Education & Schools
3%
Other / General
10%
Why voters disapprove of Gov. Scott in respondents’ words
Words in the source illustration
Education
Taxes
Housing
Enough
Nothing
Issues
Need
Office
Work
Property
Cost
Healthcare
School
Data
Support
Republican
Money
Living
Affordable
Change
Workers
Help
Trump
Why voters disapprove of Gov. Scott
In at least one word, why do you disapprove of the job Phil Scott is doing as Governor?
Response
Value
Ineffective / Time for Change
31%
Taxes & Cost of Living
29%
Education & School Consolidation
22%
Vetoes / Won’t Work with Legislature
15%
Too Conservative / Too Close to Trump
15%
Housing & Homelessness
14%
Healthcare & Social Services
14%
State Workers / Return to Office
6%
Too Liberal / RINO
5%
Data Centers & AI
4%
Environment & Wildlife
3%
Other / General
10%
2026 Governor vote by recalled 2024 Governor vote
Response
Scott (R)
Janoo (D/P)
Other candidates
Undecided
Voted Scott in 2024 (n=683)
61%
30%
Not labeled in PDF
6%
Voted Charlestin in 2024 (n=146)
Not labeled in PDF
93%
Not labeled in PDF
Not labeled in PDF
Third party / didn’t vote (n=110)
14%
59%
8%
18%
Scott job approval by leaned party identification
Response
Approve
Disapprove
Don’t Know
Democrats (n=554)
46%
48%
6%
Independents, neither (n=118)
61%
29%
9%
Republicans (n=276)
77%
19%
Not labeled in PDF
Lieutenant Governor vote by Governor vote
Response
Gray (D)
Rodgers (R)
Undecided
Scott voters (n=435)
33%
59%
8%
Janoo voters (n=406)
94%
Not labeled in PDF
Not labeled in PDF
Undecided for Governor (n=74)
28%
21%
52%
Governor vote by Trump approval
Response
Scott (R)
Janoo (D/P)
Other candidates
Undecided
Approve of Trump (n=243)
83%
Not labeled in PDF
6%
10%
Somewhat disapprove (n=44)
75%
8%
9%
7%
Strongly disapprove (n=643)
30%
61%
Not labeled in PDF
7%
Scott approval among his lost voters
Response
Scott 2024 to Janoo 2026
All likely voters
Approve
40%
57%
Disapprove
54%
37%
Don’t know
6%
6%
Legislative approval among Scott’s lost voters
Response
Scott 2024 to Janoo 2026
All likely voters
Approve
53%
38%
Disapprove
33%
49%
Don’t know
14%
13%
Why Scott’s lost voters approve of him
Response
Scott 2024 to Janoo 2026
All approvers
Moderate & Bipartisan
28%
17%
Honesty & Character
22%
14%
Competence & Common Sense
19%
23%
Independent of Trump
14%
5%
Other Policy
13%
5%
Partisan: Republican / Not a Democrat
11%
10%
Why Scott’s lost voters disapprove of him
Response
Scott 2024 to Janoo 2026
All disapprovers
Ineffective / Time for Change
38%
31%
Taxes & Cost of Living
30%
29%
Education & School Consolidation
25%
22%
Housing & Homelessness
14%
14%
Vetoes / Won’t Work with Legislature
13%
15%
State Workers / Return to Office
10%
6%
Average ideology by voter group
Response
Value
Janoo voters (D/P)
7.5 on a 0-10 scale
Gray voters (D)
7.1 on a 0-10 scale
All voters
5.7 on a 0-10 scale
Undecided Governor voters
4.7 on a 0-10 scale
Scott voters (R)
4.2 on a 0-10 scale
Rodgers voters (R)
3.2 on a 0-10 scale
Detailed ideological self-placement
Response
Value
10. Democratic Socialist
12%
9. Extremely Progressive/Liberal
4%
8. Very Progressive/Liberal
7%
7. Progressive/Liberal
14%
6. Center-left
14%
5. Moderate / Centrist
13%
4. Center-right
8%
3. Conservative
11%
2. Very Conservative
5%
1. Extremely Conservative
3%
0. Far Right
3%
Skipped / Don’t Know
7%
County shares of the weighted sample
Response
Value
Chittenden
26.6%
Washington
9.9%
Windsor
9.2%
Rutland
9.0%
Franklin
7.0%
Windham
6.9%
Addison
6.3%
Bennington
5.5%
Orange
5.0%
Caledonia
4.5%
Lamoille
4.1%
Orleans
3.7%
Grand Isle
1.4%
Essex
0.8%
Vermont by county
Response
Value
Chittenden
26.6%
Washington
9.9%
Windsor
9.2%
Rutland
9.0%
Franklin
7.0%
Windham
6.9%
Addison
6.3%
Bennington
5.5%
Orange
5.0%
Caledonia
4.5%
Lamoille
4.1%
Orleans
3.7%
Grand Isle
1.4%
Essex
0.8%
How the survey was conducted
State Navigate surveyed 948 likely voters across Vermont from October 2-4, 2026. Text messages were sent to voters by AllianceForge, which directed them to an online survey hosted on the SurveyMonkey platform. The sample was drawn from a voter file provided by L2, and results were weighted by gender, race, age, education, leaned party identification, county, and 2024 presidential vote recall to reflect the likely November 2026 general electorate, with weighting benchmarks derived from L2 voter file data in conjunction with AP VoteCast. The margin of error is 3.2% at a 95% confidence level. This survey was designed and conducted by the State Navigate Polling Team, and was not sponsored by any candidate or candidate's committee.
