Scott’s narrow lead holds as Vermont heads toward Election Day

Scott leads Janoo 49% to 46%. Both gain three points since early October, while Gray’s lead over Rodgers narrows in the Lieutenant Governor race.

Field dates: October 23-25, 2026
Sample: 1,752 likely voters
Margin of error: ±2.3 points
Election: November 3, 2026

Both candidates gain as undecided voters shrink

Scott rises from 46% to 49%; Janoo rises from 43% to 46%. Undecided falls from 8% to 3%. The report’s more precise margins put Scott at +3.1 in early October and +2.5 now. The first poll included presidential recall weighting; the new poll uses standard weights.

Response	Oct 2-4	Oct 23-25
Phil Scott (R)	46%	49%
Amanda Janoo (D/P)	43%	46%
Other candidates	4%	2%
Don’t Know	8%	3%

Gray stays ahead, while Rodgers closes some ground

Gray moves from 59% to 58%, while Rodgers rises from 32% to 37%. Their gap narrows from 27 to 21 points using the rounded ballot shares. Both polls include leaners and use different weighting.

Response	Oct 2-4	Oct 23-25
Molly Gray (D)	59%	58%
John S. Rodgers (R)	32%	37%
Don’t Know	9%	5%

The people behind the poll

One dot represents one of the workbook’s 1,907 responses, colored by initial Governor choice before the leaner follow-up. Dots are distributed within the reported county, not at home locations. These are unweighted responses.

Response	Responses	Share
Addison	116	6.1%
Bennington	69	3.6%
Caledonia	102	5.3%
Chittenden	501	26.3%
Essex	11	0.6%
Franklin	138	7.2%
Grand Isle	27	1.4%
Lamoille	85	4.5%
Orange	87	4.6%
Orleans	81	4.2%
Rutland	153	8.0%
Washington	256	13.4%
Windham	121	6.3%
Windsor	160	8.4%

Scott remains above water

Scott’s approval is 58%, up from 57% in early October. Disapproval increases from 37% to 40%, as undecided drops from 6% to 2%. Strong approval rises nine points while somewhat approve falls eight points.

Response	Oct 2-4	Oct 23-25	Change
Strongly approve	22%	31%	+9 pp
Somewhat approve	35%	27%	-8 pp
Somewhat disapprove	23%	24%	+1 pp
Strongly disapprove	14%	16%	+2 pp
Don’t Know	6%	2%	-4 pp

Trump faces strong disapproval

Trump’s approval moves from 26% to 25%, while disapproval rises from 72% to 74%. Nearly seven in ten now strongly disapprove. These are aggregate poll comparisons, not individual voter transitions.

Response	Oct 2-4	Oct 23-25	Change
Strongly approve	15%	14%	-1 pp
Somewhat approve	10%	11%	+1 pp
Somewhat disapprove	5%	5%	No change
Strongly disapprove	68%	69%	+1 pp
Don’t Know	2%	1%	-1 pp

Scott and Gray share voters

Among Scott voters, 26% back Gray for Lieutenant Governor and 69% back Rodgers. Both races include leaners.

Response	Gray (D)	Rodgers (R)	DK/DR
Scott voters (n=855)	26%	69%	—
Janoo voters (n=811)	95%	—	—
Undecided (n=57)	27%	27%	46%

Scott retains two-thirds of his 2024 voters

Among those who recall voting for Scott in 2024, 66% back him again and 30% back Janoo. These are recalled votes, not official returns.

Response	Scott (R)	Janoo (D/P)	Other candidates	DK/DR
2024 Scott voters (n=1232)	66%	30%	—	—
2024 Charlestin voters (n=325)	—	97%	—	—
Third party / did not vote (n=175)	19%	69%	—	7%

Voters split on the Legislature

The Legislature’s approval rises from 38% to 40%, while disapproval rises from 49% to 52%. Undecided falls from 13% to 8%. The detailed responses below show the changes within each category.

Response	Oct 2-4	Oct 23-25	Change
Strongly approve	3%	3%	No change
Somewhat approve	35%	37%	+2 pp
Somewhat disapprove	25%	29%	+4 pp
Strongly disapprove	24%	24%	No change
Don’t Know	13%	8%	-5 pp

Team notes and analysis

The following analysis from the State Navigate polling team examines the forces shaping these races.

Chaz Nuttycombe on the third-party candidates

The minor-party vote is fading.

In our October 2-4 poll, 3.6% of likely voters backed one of the three minor-party candidates for Governor. That share has fallen to 1.7%, with each candidate slipping: Brian Judd from 1.7% to 0.7%, June Goodband from 1.1% to 0.6%, and Dean Roy from 0.8% to 0.4%. DK/DR (don't know or don't remember) fell too, from 7.8% to 3.3%, so Scott and Janoo together now hold 95% of the vote, up from 89%. As Election Day nears, voters are treating this as a two-person race.

State Navigate Vermont statewide poll, PDF page 12.

Chaz Nuttycombe on reaching young voters

We heard from more young voters this time.

Young voters are the hardest group to reach in any poll. In our last survey we heard from 61 Vermonters aged 18 to 29; this time we heard from 80, an increase of 19. They now make up 7.3% of our weighted likely electorate, up from 6.8% in our last survey and closer to their roughly 8% share of the people expected to vote. They also look more like Vermont's young voters. In our last poll we struggled to reach young Democrats: just 55% of our 18 to 29 year-olds were Democrats or leaned that way, and 28% were Republicans, a mix that is out of step with one of the most Democratic age groups in the state. This time 73% are Democrats and 14% Republicans, and they recall voting for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump 72% to 13%, against 58% to 33% last time. That matters because this is Janoo's best group: voters under 30 back her 70% to 25%, so a bigger and more representative base of them makes our read on the race sturdier.

State Navigate Vermont statewide poll, PDF page 12.

Chaz Nuttycombe on the undecideds

Few voters are truly undecided, and they lean Republican.

Our topline shows 3.3% of likely voters as DK/DR (don't know or don't remember), but most of them are not really up for grabs. 1.6% have already voted and either did not remember or would not tell us their choice for Governor. That leaves just 1.6% who haven't voted and haven't decided, 34 respondents, so the figures that follow are rough. These remaining undecideds lean Republican: 48% are Republicans, 35% Democrats and 17% independents with no lean, and 43% recall voting for Donald Trump in 2024. Most backed Phil Scott in 2024 (72%), but they are lukewarm on him now: 49% approve of the job he is doing, mostly only somewhat. Down the ballot they favor Republican John S. Rodgers over Molly Gray, 41% to 26%. If they vote and come home to Scott, they would add a little to his edge, but there are too few of them to decide the race on their own.

State Navigate Vermont statewide poll, PDF page 12.

Chaz Nuttycombe on the lieutenant governor's race

Rodgers has gained since the debate, but not with Democrats.

Republican John S. Rodgers has narrowed the gap. Our October 2-4 poll, taken just before the October 6 Lieutenant Governor debate, had Molly Gray ahead 59% to 32%, a 28-point lead. She now leads 58% to 37%, a 22-point lead. Rodgers's exchange with Gray at the debate, over migrant worker housing on her family's farm, went viral in conservative media and on social media, and the gains since have come from his own side: he now wins 90% of Republicans, up from 85%, and 39% of independents, up from 30%. What he hasn't found is Democrats. Just 8% of Democrats back him (it was 5% in our last survey), while Gray holds 89% of them. Compare that with Phil Scott, who wins 25% of Democrats in the Governor's race, and Gray, who takes 26% of Scott's own voters. In a state this Democratic, a Republican can't win statewide on Republican votes alone, and that crossover is the difference between Scott's close race and Rodgers's distant one.

State Navigate Vermont statewide poll, PDF page 13. The analysis gives a 28-point earlier lead and a 22-point current lead; the rounded candidate shares shown in the briefing differ by 27 and 21 points. Both are retained as printed.

Explore all results

Explore the ballots, approvals, demographics, election history, and regional detail from the complete briefing.

Who is in the sample

Weighted shares and printed respondent counts. PDF page 1

Survey participation	Weighted share	Respondents
Answered October 2-4 poll	20%	394
Only answered this poll	80%	1,513

Weighted shares and printed respondent counts

2024 Governor

Historical election results as printed. PDF page 2

Response	Value
Scott (R)	73%
Charlestin (D)	22%

2024 Lieutenant Governor

Historical election results as printed. PDF page 2

Response	Value
Rodgers (R)	49%
Zuckerman (P/D)	47%

2022 Governor

Historical election results as printed. PDF page 2

Response	Value
Scott (R)	71%
Siegel (D)	24%